Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Markets rise cautiously on increasing US-China tensions

Dow went up 180, advancers ove decliners better than 3-2 while NAZ sank 128.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to the 145s & the REIT index slid back 1 after yesterday's rise.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were in demand today.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 32s & gold fell 10 to 1695.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil33.33
-1.02-3.0%

GC=FGold  1,695.60
-10.00-0.6%






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Pres Trump is exploring a range of actions that he could take against the Chinese gov if it proceeds with a new law to curb protests in Hong Kong, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.  "There's a whole menu of potential things he could do," Ross said.  "And I'm sure they're working right now on how to refine the thinking and come up with something that's an appropriate response."  One year after last summer's chaotic & frequently violent anti-gov protests, the Chinese gov has announced that it plans to pass a controversial national security law to outlaw secession, subversion, terrorism & foreign interference in Hong Kong.  The National People's Congress, essentially a rubber stamp, is expected to ratify the bill today.  Legislation could be finalized this summer.  "I don't think we should get out ahead of the president," Ross said.  "This is a very complex situation. Our hearts go out to the individual civilians in Hong Kong. We're with them, but the president will have to decide what exactly is the appropriate response to it."  Yesterday Trump said the US is working on a strong response to the bill, which has reignited protests in Hong Kong, & could announce action by the end of the week.  “We’re doing something now. I think you’ll find it very interesting," Trump said.  "I’ll be talking about it over the next couple of days."  Hong Kong, a former British colony, was returned to China in 1997 under an agreement known as “one country, two systems,” which allowed the city to retain a “high-degree of autonomy” for 50 years.  The agreement expires in 2047.

Trump mulling 'menu' of actions against China over Hong Kong, commerce sec. says


The European Commission has unveiled plans for a €750B ($826B) recovery fund as the region faces the worst economic crisis since the 1930s.  It will borrow these funds and then disburse them via the European budget — the EU's common basket of cash that supports programs such as Erasmus.  They will be repaid between in 2028-2058.  The €750B includes €500B in grants & €250B in loans to member states.  Out of the €500B in loans, €310B will be invested in the green & digital transitions.  Germany & France opened the door to issuing mutual EU debt last week, suggesting that the Commission, the EU's exec arm, should raise €500B on the public markets to be distributed as grants.  The initiative was described as a “breakthrough” & a “historic” step as Germany had always opposed the idea of jointly-issued debt, even during previous crises.  However, there are 4 European countries that still broadly oppose issuing grants as a way to mitigate the economic fallout from the Covid-19 crisis, preferring instead loans that will be repaid. Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden & Denmark also want strong economic reform commitments in return for any financial help.  By including a component of grants and loans, the Commission is seeking to bridge these differences among the 27 EU countries.  A Dutch official said that “the positions are far apart and this is a unanimity file, so negotiations will take time. It’s difficult to imagine this proposal will be the end-state of those negotiations.”  This proposal kicks off a discussion among the 27 EU member states.  The leaders will meet, likely via video call, on Jun 18 in the hope of finding a consensus over the exact details of the recovery fund.  The European Parliament, the only directly-elected EU institution, will also have to approve any new financial aid as well.

EU unveils plan to borrow 750 billion euros to aid economic recovery

Congress will “probably” have to pass more legislation to mitigate the damage from the coronavirus pandemic, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said.  He added that a measure to lift the US economy would have a more narrow scope than the $3T package House Dems approved earlier this month.  He said states' progress in restarting their economies in the coming weeks will help to inform what Congress does.  McConnell noted that “we need to make sure we have unemployment insurance properly funded for as long as we need,” as tens of Ms lose paychecks.  “So, in the next few weeks, we’ll determine whether there is yet another bill,” he continued.  Congress has passed 4 bills to respond to the crisis, most recently approving a plan to replenish a small business aid program about a month ago.  Many lawmakers & Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have argued the US should take more steps to jolt the economy as the unemployment rate stood at 14.7% in Apr & pockets of the country remain under restrictions to protect public health.  While Dems have pushed for more legislation for weeks, the GOP has started to warm to another round of stimulus in recent days.  Pres Trump & his top advisors signaled their support for another rescue bill last week. The pres mentioned the possibility of a 2nd direct payment to individual.  The Senate Rep leader again insisted he would push for liability protections for doctors & businesses as the economy reopened.  Dems have been uneasy about creating shields from lawsuits.  McConnell also said he would want additional relief for state & local gos to be tailored only to increased expenses & revenue lost due to the coronavirus pandemic.  Dems included nearly $1T for cash-strapped states & municipalities in their bill as leaders from both parties ask for more money.  Last week, the senator said the next congressional bill would not extend the $600 per week sum the US gov added to what recipients normally get from states which is due to expire at the end of Jul.

Congress will ‘probably’ have to pass another coronavirus stimulus bill, Mitch McConnell says

Stocks started higher but then pulled back on more US-China trade tensions.  Selling hit tech issues hard & shows up in the decline at NAZ.  Success of opening up the US economy is difficult to understand with so much stumbling.

Dow Jones Industrials








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