Monday, May 4, 2020

Markets slump as concerns over virus fallout grow

Dow fell 216, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ went up 33.  The MLP index slid lower in the 128s & the REIT index dropped 8+ to the 316s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were little changed .  Oil was steady in the 19s & gold rose 8 to 1709.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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CL=FCrude Oil20.07
  +0.29+1.5%

GC=FGold   1,715.20
+14.30+0.8%






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Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the Trump administration is prepared to back additional stimulus moneyto blunt the economic pain of the coronavirus pandemic if necessary.  "If we need to put more money out to support American business and American workers, the president is absolutely prepared to do that," Mnuchin said.  Congress has passed 4 massive economic-relief packages designed to blunt the pain from the crisis, including the $2.2T CARES Act signed at the end of Mar, which expanded unemployment benefits; sent one-time payments of up to $1200 for Americans who earn less than $99K & established the $349B Paycheck Protection Program, which offers forgivable loans to small businesses.  At the end of Apr, Pres Trump signed into law a 4th round of aid, including $310B for the PPP.  The program, which exhausted its initial funding within 13 days & was heavily criticized for granting low-interest loans to big, publicly traded companies, has so far provided 2.2M loans worth $175B.  The average loan size is $79K, Mnuchin said.  It's unclear what would be included in another relief plan, although Mnuchin said that Trump is looking at ways to stimulate the travel industry & is focused on passing tax changes that could boost the restaurant industry.  "We fully appreciate the issues of the restaurant industry," Mnuchin added.  Trump has previously floated the possibility of restoring tax deductions for businesses spending money at restaurants & on entertainment in hopes of incentivizing spending.  During a virtual town hall last evening, Trump said he would not agree to pass further stimulus measures unless it includes a payroll tax cut.  “We’re not doing anything without a payroll tax cut,” Trump added.

Trump 'absolutely prepared' to provide more relief money, Mnuchin says


New orders for-US made goods fell more than expected in Mar & could sink further as disruptions from the novel coronavirus fracture supply chains & depress exports.  The Commerce Dept said factory orders dropped 10.3% & data for Feb was revised down to show orders dipping 0.1% instead of being unchanged as previously reported.  The forecast called for factory orders tumbling 9.7% in Mar.

New orders for US-made goods falls more than expected, and could worsen


The 30.7M small businesses that generate 50% of US GDP have been hard-pressed to receive the gov relief they need to stay in business.  According to the CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey, which surveyed 2200 small business owners across America, while the $660B Paycheck Protection Program< was instituted to give them a lifeline through the coronavirus & economic shutdown, only 13% of the 45% who applied for the PPP were approved.  Among all respondents, 7% already received financing & 18% are still waiting for a response from a lender.  The experience small business owners have had applying for the $10K Economic Injury Disaster Loan Emergency (EIDL) Advance was worse.  Only 3% of all small business owners surveyed were approved for such funding & 16% are awaiting a response from a lender.  Both relief programs are run by the Small Business Administration. PPP loans are capped at $100K per employee & can range in size.  The $10K advance from EIDL does not have to be repaid, making it effectively a grant.  Sole proprietorships that represent 81% of all small businesses in America is a group particularly hard hit in this credit crunch.  For them the window for relief loans opened late, giving them a shorter time opportunity to garner the money desperately needed to ensure they can remain in business.  This lack of aid relief has many on Main Street hemorrhaging red ink.  According to the survey, 31% can operate only a few months or less, 7% less than a month & 6% less than a week under the current economic lockdown conditions.

Small businesses squeezed out of PPP loans many now be on brink, survey reveals

Apr economic is coming this week & it will be dreary.  Fri brings the big jobs report for Apr.  The new unemployment claims report comes on Thurs.  While dismal, the trend is for a declining number which is encouraging to some degree.  Grim stories should make for a very tough week in the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials

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