Monday, August 3, 2020

Markets rise as data shows US manufacturing improves in July

Dow shot up 236 (near session high), advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ gained 157.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 128s & the REIT index fell 4 to the 354s.  Junk bond funds remained mixed & Treasuries were sold all day while stocks rallied.  Oil went up to nearly 41 & gold added 5 to 1990 (more on both below).

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US mmanufacturing improved again in Jul with a key gauge of activity rising further into expansion territory.  The Institute for Supply Management, an association of purchasing managers, said that its manufacturing index rose to 54.2 last month, up from a Jun reading of 52.6.  Any reading above 50 signals that US manufacturing is expanding.  The index dipped below 50 in Mar, indicating a recession in manufacturing as the coronavirus pandemic shut down factories.  The overall economy fell into a recession in Feb & the gov reported last week that GDP plunged at an annual rate of 32.9% in the Apr-Jun qtr, the biggest drop on records going back to 1947.  While it was the 2nd straight month that the index has been above the 50 threshold, indicating manufacturing is expanding again, the outlook is clouded by spreading infections in the US in the South, West & Midwest. 

US manufacturing improves in July, outlook clouded by virus


Clorox (CLX), a Dividend Aristocrat, reported a 21.9% gain in sales for the latest qtr as consumers stocked up on cleaning goods & personal-care items due to the Covid-19 pandemic & said that it will promote Linda Rendle, the company's pres, to CEO in Sep.  The household-supplies producer posted fiscal Q4 sales of $1.98B, up from $1.63B last year.  The forecast was expecting $1.87B.  Sales in the health & wellness segment, which includes its namesake disinfecting products as well as vitamins, rose 33%.  Sales in its household segment grew 17% & its lifestyle segment saw its sales rising 16%.  Sales outside the US rose 12%.  EPS rose to $2.41 compared with $1.88 in the year-ago period.  Analysts were looking for $1.99.  The company expects a mid-single-digit decrease to mid-single-digit increase in full-year EPS.  The stock dropped 4.51.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CLX?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Clorox posts higher sales as consumers stock up on disinfectants


Coronavirus outbreaks that have torn through Sun Belt states such as California, Florida, Texas & Arizona for weeks have started to decline, although deaths across the nation are still on the rise, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  Across the nation, daily new Covid-19 cases have declined in recent days, driving the 7-day average of new cases down more than 5% compared with a week ago, according to Johns Hopkins data.  Health officials have struggled for weeks to halt outbreaks in the American South & West, shuttering businesses & pleading with residents to follow social distancing guidelines & wear face coverings.  As of yesterday, cases in Texas have fallen more than 8% over the previous week, hitting 7723 daily new cases based on a 7-day moving average.  Gov Greg Abbott has warned that while the state has made some strides, it has not yet “conquered” the coronavirus and it’s “going to take a little while” to eliminate.  Meanwhile, Florida reported a more than 14% drop in its 7-day average of new Covid-19 cases & Arizona reported a more than 10% drop.  California's cases are also slowly starting to trend down, reporting a more than 8% drop.  California, Texas & Florida now lead New York, the nation's epicenter earlier this year, in total number of infections.  Although cases appear to be descending, Covid-19 deaths have been on the rise since early Jul.  Coronavirus deaths typically lag behind reported cases because it can take someone infected with the coronavirus weeks to fall seriously ill & potentially die.  The US reported an additional 1047 deaths based on a 7-day average, a near 15% increase compared with a week ago

Coronavirus cases ease in Sun Belt states as nationwide deaths climb

Gold prices eked out a slight gain, but enough to finish at a fresh record, with a bounce higher in the $ muting some of the rally that had taken bullion temporarily a psychologically significant level near $2K.  Dec rose pennies at $1986 an ounce, after touching a fresh intraday peak at 2009.  Last Fri, bullion posted a weekly climb of 4.7%, while the 10.3% gain in Jul marked the best monthly rise since Feb of 2016.  The yellow metal has enjoyed a rally to all-time records amid concerns about the economic impact of COVID-19 & the actions taken by govs & central banks to help mitigate the harm to businesses in attempting to curtail the spread of the pathogen.  The global tally for infections from the disease caused by the novel strain of coronavirus stands at more than 18M & almost 690K death.  Still, equity markets were rising higher amid global manufacturing data that suggests some rebound from weakness is under way.  NAZ reached an intraday record high above 10,900 today, which may be reflective of tapering appetite for gold over other assets.

Gold prices eke out record high, but pull back from intraday peak near $2,010 as U.S. dollar firms

Oil futures ended solidly higher following a round of upbeat readings on manufacturing activity, though some traders see upside limited as OPEC & its allies relax curbs on output & the number of COVID-19 cases continue to rise.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Sep added 74¢ (1.8%) to settle at $41.01 a barrel while Oct Brent crude rose 63¢ (1.5%) to finish at $44.15 a barrel.  Oil added to early gains after the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 54.2 in Jul from 52.6 a month earlier, its highest level in 15 months & above the consensus forecast of 53.6.  A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, but senior execs warned that production remains well below pre-pandemic levels & that many jobs won’t be coming back soon. OPEC & its allies (OPEC+) agreed in early Jul to relax output curbs beginning in Aug.  OPEC+ pledged to cut output by 9.7M barrels a day beginning in May, easing to 7.7M barrels a day this month & running thru the end of the year.  Oil ended last week on a positive note, leaving WTI with a monthly rise of around 2.6% for Jul, while Brent rose more than 5% for the month. 

Oil prices end higher as upbeat readings on manufacturing activity outweigh jitters over coronavirus, OPEC+ output boost

The bulls came back & bought stocks, although, as has been the case for a couple of months, their interest was mainly in tech & bio tech stocks on the NAZ bringing it to another record.  An extension for a stimulus bill from DC is cloudy with the Reps & Dems far apart on what it should include.  The prospect for more gov spending is keeping interest in gold which is pretty much at 2K.  More Jul economic data is coming this week & that may stimulate those guys in DC.

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