Dow went up 46, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ soared triple digits (118) to another record. The MLP index was little changed above 130 & the REIT index rose 5 to 356. Junk bond funds continued mixed & Treasuries were bid higher. Oil was weak in the 42s & gold gave back another 19, falling to 1960 (more on both below).
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said he expects between 20% & 30% growth in the 3rd & 4th quarters of 2020. "Twenty-percent-plus
growth in the third and fourth quarters. You can score that," Kudlow
said. "We're going to have a big bang year next year when the president puts in his free-market reward success policy." He also expects the US to show a V-shaped economic recovery despite concerns that new spikes in
coronavirus cases throughout Jun & Jul might make that prospect less likely. Kudlow has been consistent in his belief that such a recovery trend is still possible for the country, despite concerns from bankers who predicted a slower, U-shaped recovery in Jul. He
added that Americans "created over 9 million jobs...in the last 3
months," & that he thinks the US is headed "for [a] strong, V-shaped
recovery" from the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic adviser mentioned the housing, auto & retail as examples of thriving, post-pandemic US industries. Another
1.1M Americans filed for unemployment last week, bringing the
total number of claims since COVID-19 came to the US to 57.4M —
more than a 3ird of the US labor force, the Labor Dept reported. Kudlow said stimulus talks remain "rather stalled."
Kudlow expects at least 20% growth in second half of 2020
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, plans to begin what would be the largest, late-stage trial testing a
potential coronavirus vaccine in Sep. The phase 3 trial would enroll up to 60K healthy
people ages 18 & older across nearly 180 locations in the US &
other countries. Participants
will be randomly selected to receive a dose of the potential vaccine or
a placebo, according to details of the trial, which will determine
whether the vaccine is safe & effective. They will be followed by
researchers for more than 2 years. “Our Phase 3 program is
intended to be as robust as possible, could include up to 60,000
participants and will be conducted in places with high incidence rates,”
JNJ said. “We are
using epidemiology and modeling data to predict and plan where our
studies should take place and expect that to be finalized soon.” JNJ
is one of several companies in a race to develop a potential vaccine
for Covid-19, which has infected more than 22.4M people worldwide & killed 788K, according to Johns
Hopkins University. There are more than 160 vaccines under development worldwide, according to the World Health Organization, with at least 30 already in clinical trials. The stock rose 1.05.
If you would like to learn more about JNJ, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JNJ?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
J&J to start late-stage vaccine trial in September with 60,000 participants
Germany & Spain have both recorded their highest respective daily coronavirus infection rate since Apr, with other countries in the region also reporting a sharp rise in new cases. Several European countries have imposed travel restrictions, social-distancing measures & mask-wearing procedures to prevent the spread of the virus. However, the World Health Organization cited a relaxation of public health measures, in addition to people “dropping their guard,” as possible explanations for the resurgence in the number of new Covid-19 infections across the region. Germany recorded 1707 new cases of the coronavirus in the last 24 hours, reflecting its highest daily toll since Apr. The country has now reported 228K cases of the virus, with 9253 related deaths, according to the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases. Spain has seen another 3715 new cases of the virus confirmed in the past 24 hours, with an additional 127 deaths. As in Germany, Spain's daily infection rate has not been this high since late Apr. Italy reported 642 new coronavirus cases yesterday, notching its highest jump in new infections since late May. The country has recorded a total of 255K cases, with 35K deaths. Meanwhile, France's health ministry reported 3776 new Covid-19 infections yesterday, with the daily tally going above 3K for the 3rd time in the last 5 days. France has recorded a similar number of cases to Italy, with 30K deaths.
Germany, Spain record highest daily coronavirus infection rate since April as cases surge in Europe
The leading economic index rose 1.4% in Jul to mark the 3rd straight
increase, but it grew more slowly in a sign that the US economic
recovery has begun to flag, the Conference Board said. The index jumped more than 3% in both Jun & May after a record
decline at the beginning of the pandemic. "Despite the recent gains in
the LEI, which remain fairly broad-based, the initial post-pandemic
recovery appears to be losing steam," said Ataman Ozyildirim, director
of business cycles research at the board. "The LEI suggests that the
pace of economic growth will weaken substantially during the final
months of 2020." The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators designed
to signal business-cycle peaks & valleys.
Leading U.S. economic index rises more slowly in July as recovery wanes
Gold prices finished lower, with downward momentum for the
precious metal coming amid a Federal Reserve that hinted at a
less-accommodative posture than hoped & a $ that has gained some
altitude off 2-year lows in the past 2 sessions. Dec gold settled down $23 (1.2%) at $1946 after declining 2.1% yesterday. Gold initially added to its decline after US economic reports came in worse than expected. A weekly jobless benefit-claims report & a reading of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area, the Phily Fed index, pointed to signs of a weakening recovery in employment & growth in the COVID-19 era.
Gold ends sharply lower for a second session as U.S. dollar extends firming trend
Oil futures ended lower, under pressure after a rise in
weekly jobless claims added to concerns about the outlook for demand
already shaken by minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Sep declined 35¢ (0.8%) to finish at $42.58 a barrel, while Oct WTI,
the most actively traded contract, fell 29¢ (0.7%) to
$42.82. The global benchmark,
Oct Brent crude,
finished down 47¢ (1%) at $44.90 a barrel. Minutes of the Fed's Jul 28-29 meeting said staff economists told policy makers they were lowering their estimate for economic growth over the 2nd half of the year. Meanwhile, a meeting of the OPEC+ alliance’s Joint Ministerial
Monitoring Committee on yesterday offered no surprises, with ministers
maintaining output cuts of 7.7M barrels a day, but emphasizing
the need for countries that failed to cut enough in previous months to
make compensatory reductions this month & next. Support in yesterday's session also was tied to weekly inventory data
from the Energy Information Administration, which said US crude
inventories last week fell 1.6M barrels. Oil had been under pressure
after the American Petroleum Institute Tues reported a rise in
gasoline inventories, which would be a bearish sign in the final stretch
of summer driving season. But the data didn't dispel worries about demand as the economy continues to wrestle with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oil prices pull back as worries linger over demand
Selling brought lower prices at the opening on the disappointing reports about jobless claims. The rest of the day the Dow traded around breakeven. The somewhat bearish outlook by the Fed at its last meeting in Jul haunted today's market. The Dow continues to tread water under 28K (unable to reach a new record) while NAZ made another record today & gold was been hit with profit taking after hitting its record 2 weeks ago.
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