Dow dropped 130, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ rose 22. The MLP index declined 2 to the 126s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 355s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries declined in price bringing higher yields.. Oil went up to the 43s & gold was off another 13 to 1926.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 42.96 | +0.34 | +0.8% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,925.40 | -13.80 | -0.7% |
White House coronavirus advisor Dr Anthony Fauci warned members of Congress in late Jun that the US might report more than 100K daily new cases of the virus “if this does not turn around.”″ But months later, Fauci's worst fears have not come to pass as daily new cases have steadily fallen across much of the US. While testing has declined in recent weeks, the number of new cases is falling faster than testing rates, indicating that at least some of the drop is real. Epidemiologists credit a more unified health message in the US that has more people following social distancing rules. They also say that keeping some businesses closed has helped slow the outbreak. And Pres Trump started endorsing masks in late Jul bringing the White House in line with recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention after months of resistance. The number of daily new cases in the US peaked on Jul 22 at 70K new infections & have steadily fallen to about 42K per day, based on a 7-day average, according to Johns Hopkins University. The percent of all tests coming back positive has also steadily fallen, from a high of 8.5% in late Jul to 6.2% this week, according to Hopkins data. That, along with the 4 weeks of sustained decline & the falling number of Covid-19 hospitalizations, has epidemiologists feeling more confident that the US is finally getting a grip on its outbreak. “The current plan — wearing a mask, watching your distance, washing your hands, supplemented by smart testing, according to the state plans, surge testing and extreme technical assistance by CDC as well as our craft teams — continues to yield results,” Assistant Secretary for Health Adm. Brett Giroir said. But the country remains in a delicate spot, according to epidemiologists from some of the hardest-hit states in the country — Florida, Texas & Arizona. While new cases are falling by at least 5% in 31 states, they are still rising by at least as much in more than a dozen states, based on a 7-day average.
Here’s why new cases of the coronavirus are down in most of the U.S.
US home-price growth.slowed in Jun, but continued to show modest growth amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller 20-city home price index rose 3.5% year-over-year in Jun, a slight slowdown from the revised 3.6% growth in May & below the 3.8% pace was expected. “June’s gains were quite broad,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “As has been the case for the last several months, prices were particularly strong in the Southeast and West, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and (especially) Northeast.” Phoenix led the way for the 13th consecutive month, up 9% versus last year, while Seattle & Tampa Bay saw annual increases of 6.8% & 1.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, prices in Chicago edged up 0.6%, making for the smallest increase.
Home prices climb 3.5% in June, led by Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa
Consumer confidence fell in Aug to a new pandemic low after a fresh rash of coronavirus cases during the summer caused Americans to turn more pessimistic about an economic recovery. The index of consumer confidence sank to 84.8 this month from a revised 91.7 in Jul, The Conference Board said. The forecast called for a reading of 93.0. The surprising decline in the index of consumer confidence index, however, was contradicted by a pair of other surveys. The consumer sentiment index produced by the University of Michigan edged up slightly in Aug — though it was still quite low — while the daily tracker by Morning Consult has been creeping higher in the past 2 weeks. The level of confidence had risen in May & Jun after states reopened their economies, but it had faltered again in Jul after a fresh rash of coronavirus cases. It remains to be seen if confidence starts to rise again with caseloads receding. An index that gauges how consumers feel about the economy right now slid to 84.2 in Aug from 95.9 in the prior month. Americans are just as pessimistic about the near future. Another gauge that assesses how Americans view the next 6 months — the future expectations index — dropped to 85.2 in Aug from 88.9. That's also a new pandemic low. “Consumer spending has rebounded in recent months but increasing concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the board. After a rollercoaster ride in the past several months, the economy has settled into a more gradual pace of recovery. Americans are venturing out to eat more often & movie theaters have started to reopen, among other things. Yet the persistence of the coronavirus, the reduction of temporary federal benefits & still-high unemployment are likely to keep the recovery from speeding up much before the end of the year.
Investors aren't sure what to do with mixed signals on the economy & the fight with the virus. Until Labor Day. more meandering can be expected.Dow Jones Industrials
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