Friday, August 7, 2020

Markets slip on growing US-China tensions

Dow dropped 72, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ lost 21. The MLP index fell 1+ to the 141s & the REIT index went up 2+ to 361.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were lower.  Oil  was lower in the 41s & gold sank 19 to 2049 following a long, strong advance.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil41.28
  -0.67-1.6%

GC=FGold   2,036.30
-33.10-1.6%


The US economy added 1.8M jobs in Jul even as a wave of new coronavirus cases forced most states to pause or reverse their reopenings.  The payroll increase reported by the Labor Dept was nonetheless well below the 4.8M jobs created in Jun, the highest ever recorded.  The unemployment rate fell to 10.2%, down from 11.1% in Jun.  The forecast called for the report to show that unemployment dropped to 10.5% & the economy added 1.6M jobs.  Estimates before the report varied widely amid escalating fears that a flare-up in COVID-19 cases across the country & a fresh round of business closures would derail the job market's early recovery from the worst economic downturn since the depression.  Over the past 3 months, the economy has added back less than ½ (42%) of the 22M jobs it lost during the pandemic.  There are still 10.6M more out-of-work Americans than in Feb.  The unemployment level, at its highest in decades, is expected to remain elevated as social distancing guidelines are kept in place while states fight a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.  Last week, the number of Americans applying for employment benefits fell to 1.18M, the lowest level since the pandemic started in mid-Mar.  The figure indicates there's still some driving power behind the job market's turnaround.  Leisure & hospitality once again accounted for the bulk of jobs created last month, with 592K new positions added.  About 505K of those were in food & drinking establishments, one of the industries hit hardest by the pandemic as states ordered restaurants and bars to close & directed Americans to stay at home.  Gov jobs grew 301K, retail saw a gain of 258K & manufacturing payrolls increased by 26K.  Education & health services added 215K workers.  The numbers reflect the economy's struggle to recover from the virus-induced crisis, which sent the GDP, the broadest measure of goods & services produced by a country, plunging a record-shattering 32.9% annual rate in Q2.


China.s foreign ministry firmly opposes exec orders announced by Pres Trump banning US transactions with the Chinese owners of messaging app WeChat & video-sharing app TikTok, Beijing said.  Beijing will defend the legitimate rights & interests of Chinese businesses & the US would have to bear the consequences of its actions, ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters, without giving details.  "The U.S. is using national security as an excuse and using state power to oppress non-American businesses. That’s just a hegemonic practice. China is firmly opposed to that," he said.  The US exec orders, which will be effective in 45 days, came after the Trump administration announced its efforts to purge “untrusted” Chinese apps from US digital networks & called WeChat, controlled by Tencent Holdings & ByteDance's TikTok "significant threats."  Wang said that the US was sacrificing the interests of users & companies and engaging in political manipulation & oppression, adding that it “will only lose its moral high ground with a damaged image and a deficit of trust.”

The Trump administration will impose a fresh round of sanctions on 11 individuals, including Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, as tensions between the US & China accelerate.  The Treasury Dept designated Lam for her role in overseeing & “implementing Beijing's policies of suppression of freedom and democratic processes.”  According to the dept, Lam, pushed last year to allow for extradition to mainland China, setting off a series of massive anti-gov demonstrations in Hong Kong.  “The United States stands with the people of Hong Kong and we will use our tools and authorities to target those undermining their autonomy,” Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.  The Trump administration has been critical of Beijing's recent decision to pass a sweeping national security law aimed at limiting Hong Kong's autonomy & banning literature critical of the Chinese Communist Party.  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has described the new law as an “Orwellian move” & an assault “on the rights and freedoms of the people of Hong Kong.”  Today, Pompeo said: “The Chinese Communist Party has made clear that Hong Kong will never again enjoy the high degree of autonomy that Beijing itself promised to the Hong Kong people and the United Kingdom for 50 years. President Trump has made clear that the United States will therefore treat Hong Kong as ‘one country, one system,’ and take action against individuals who have crushed the Hong Kong people’s freedoms.”


The jobs report was fairly good although gains going forward will be limited after Jun's enormous gain.  US-China relations continue to be touchy which could harm trade between the 2 countries.  Meanwhile those guys in DC remain very far apart on another stimulus bill.  So the bulls are taking a long break for the weekend.

Dow Jones Industrials








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