Dow went up 164 with buying in the last hour, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ gained 38. The MLP index added 1+ to 130 & the REIT index rose 4+ to 359. Junk bond funds rose along with stocks & Treasuries remained in demand. Oil climbed into the 41s & gold rocketed ahead 37 to 2024 for another record (more below on both).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Dem leaders & Trump administration officials expect to meet again today as they attempt to hash out a pandemic aid package. The sides appear to have resolved few of the thorny issues at stake in the talks, even though more than a week has passed since Reps unveiled a counteroffer to the legislation Dems passed in May. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin White House chief of staff Mark Meadowns will meet later. Prior to the huddle, the Trump administration officials attended the Senate Rep policy lunch. The parties have come close to a consensus in only a few areas, such as extending funding for Paycheck Protection Program loans for small business, an administration official said. Mnuchin has said Dems & the GOP agreed on the need to send another direct payment of up to $1200 to Americans. But neither side has budged on plans for extending extra federal unemployment insurance or offering relief to budget-crunched state & local govs, among other topics. Negotiators have failed to crack the impasse even after the $600-per-week jobless benefit & a moratorium on evictions from federally backed housing expired. The end of both policies puts Ms of Americans at risk of poverty or homelessness during an economic collapse. As the stalemate drags on, it appears unlikely Congress can pass a rescue package before the end of next week. Pelosi told Dems yesterday she does not expect an agreement until next week, according to a leaker.
A senior Fed official said that Congress is in the drivers seat for getting the economy going & central bank interest-rate policy is in the passenger seat, at least for now. “The ball is in Congress’ court,” Charles Evans, the Chicago Federal Reserve pres, said. “Fiscal policy is really fundamental for getting us going,” he added. Fed officials are watching with baited breath as White House officials & congressional Dems seek to compromise on another stimulus package. Already the talks have dragged on so that federal unemployment benefits of $600 per week have expired, as has a federal moratorium on evictions. Failure to reinstate this support for unemployed workers & their families would damage the economy, he said. “If we go very long without somehow addressing the reduction and evaporation of that support, I think it is going to show up in lower aggregate demand and that would be very costly for the economy,” Evans continued. In a separate interview, St Louis Fed Pres James Bullard was optimistic a deal could be reached. “My sense is that nobody in Congress wants to go face an electorate this fall having failed to come to a deal,” Bullard said. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed last week that the path ahead for the economy depends on the course of the coronavirus. Evans & Bullard echoed this remark. “Anything that helps us avoid...second wave scenarios is just absolutely crucial,” Evans said. The Chicago Fed pres said there has been a flattening in the economic data & some economists think the US economy is stalling. “This is a very challenging time,” he added. A less optimistic path for the economy is just as likely as the baseline forecast for a steady improvement in the economy, he noted. For now, Evans said he sees the unemployment rate falling from 11.1% in Jun to 9.5% by the end of 2020 & to 6.5% by the end of 2021.
Fed’s Evans says the power to get the economy going lies with Congress
US factory orders rose 6.2% in Jun to mark the 2nd increase in a row, pointing to a steady rebound after widespread shutdowns in the early stages of the pandemic. The forecast predicted a 4.6% increase. Even after a spike in coronavirus cases since Jun, the early evidence suggests that manufacturers made further strides in Jul as well. A survey of industry execs rose to a 15-month high, according to a closely report produced by the Institute for Supply Management. Orders for durable goods rose a revised 7.6% in Jul, the gov said, a bit higher than the initially reported 7.3% increase. Orders for non-durable goods such as oil, chemicals & textiles & advanced 5%, the Commerce Dept said. The manufacturing side of the US economy strengthened further in Jul even as some states reimposed restrictions to combat the latest coronavirus spike. Yet production remains well below precrisis trends & businesses say they are still plagued by uncertainty. Factory orders are off 10% from a year earlier. Until the virus is brought under control, American factories are expected to produce fewer goods with fewer workers, making it harder for the economy to fully recover.
Home Depot (HD), a Dow stock, said it will open 3 distribution centers in the Atlanta area over the next 18 months to keep up with those expectations, which have only been amplified since the pandemic. “We like to say that retail has changed more in the past four years than in our 40-year history,” said Stephanie Smith, senior VP of supply chain. “Covid has even brought this more to light. Customers expect to shop whenever, wherever, however they want.” Smith said the pandemic has underscored the importance of a strong & flexible supply chain. During the spread of the coronavirus, customers have gravitated even more to online shopping. HD has raced to meet customer demand for speed & convenience. It began rolling out curbside pickup in late Mar, & the service is now available at most stores. Before late Mar, customers had to go inside to pick up online purchases. Online sales grew by 80% year over year in Q1. About $4.2B (roughly 15%) of its net sales came from online. More than 60% of the time, customers picked up those online orders at a store. HD wants to offer same-day & next-day delivery to 90% of the US population. In Dec, it said about 50% of the US population had one-day delivery options. The stock rose 1.68.
If you would like to learnmore about HD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/HD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Home Depot to speed up deliveries with new distribution centers as pandemic fuels home
Gold futures powered higher, gathering momentum late in the session to finish at a fresh record as gov bond yields headed lower & as the $'s recent rebound receded somewhat, allowing the precious metal to make an assault on a record close above the $2K threshold. The sustained rally in gold has come as govs across the world have flooded their economies with financial aid to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. .And investors are betting that the uptrend for the yellow metal continues as the $ weakens & interest rates remain around 0% in many parts of the world. Dec gold rose a whopping $34 (1.7%) at $2021 an ounce, after settling about even yesterday and starting out with meager gains today.
Gold ends above $2,000 for the first time in history as U.S. dollar and bond yields recede
Oil futures reversed early losses, ending higher as traders awaited data on US crude inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude for Sept rose 69¢ (1.7%) to finish at $41.70 a barrel, after trading as low as $40.14. Oct Brent crude ended with a gain of 28¢ (0.6%) at $44.43 a barrel. US crude inventories fell 10.6M barrels last week, the largest drop of the year. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group, is expected to release its weekly estimate later today, while the Energy Information Administration’s more closely watched data is due tomorrow. Analysts are looking for EIA crude inventories to show a fall of 4.1M barrels. Meanwhile, worries remain about overall demand as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. The global tally of confirmed cases climbed above 18.3M, according to Johns Hopkins University, & the death toll rose to 694K. However, the number of new US cases of COVID-19 was below 50K for a 2nd day, with some of the most hard-hit states showing a slowdown in infections. Worries about the continued spread of the virus in the US & elsewhere have been seen as a negative for refining margins, which could crimp demand for crude.
Oil finishes higher ahead of U.S. supply data
Stocks were higher on hopes for a new relief package out of DC, even though those guys don't seem interested in getting the work done. New economic data is encouraging & the macro story on fighting the virus has been looking better in the last few days. At the same time, gold continues to be in heavy demand by nervous investors, among others.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Dem leaders & Trump administration officials expect to meet again today as they attempt to hash out a pandemic aid package. The sides appear to have resolved few of the thorny issues at stake in the talks, even though more than a week has passed since Reps unveiled a counteroffer to the legislation Dems passed in May. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin White House chief of staff Mark Meadowns will meet later. Prior to the huddle, the Trump administration officials attended the Senate Rep policy lunch. The parties have come close to a consensus in only a few areas, such as extending funding for Paycheck Protection Program loans for small business, an administration official said. Mnuchin has said Dems & the GOP agreed on the need to send another direct payment of up to $1200 to Americans. But neither side has budged on plans for extending extra federal unemployment insurance or offering relief to budget-crunched state & local govs, among other topics. Negotiators have failed to crack the impasse even after the $600-per-week jobless benefit & a moratorium on evictions from federally backed housing expired. The end of both policies puts Ms of Americans at risk of poverty or homelessness during an economic collapse. As the stalemate drags on, it appears unlikely Congress can pass a rescue package before the end of next week. Pelosi told Dems yesterday she does not expect an agreement until next week, according to a leaker.
Congress, White House struggle to break coronavirus aid stalemate
A senior Fed official said that Congress is in the drivers seat for getting the economy going & central bank interest-rate policy is in the passenger seat, at least for now. “The ball is in Congress’ court,” Charles Evans, the Chicago Federal Reserve pres, said. “Fiscal policy is really fundamental for getting us going,” he added. Fed officials are watching with baited breath as White House officials & congressional Dems seek to compromise on another stimulus package. Already the talks have dragged on so that federal unemployment benefits of $600 per week have expired, as has a federal moratorium on evictions. Failure to reinstate this support for unemployed workers & their families would damage the economy, he said. “If we go very long without somehow addressing the reduction and evaporation of that support, I think it is going to show up in lower aggregate demand and that would be very costly for the economy,” Evans continued. In a separate interview, St Louis Fed Pres James Bullard was optimistic a deal could be reached. “My sense is that nobody in Congress wants to go face an electorate this fall having failed to come to a deal,” Bullard said. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed last week that the path ahead for the economy depends on the course of the coronavirus. Evans & Bullard echoed this remark. “Anything that helps us avoid...second wave scenarios is just absolutely crucial,” Evans said. The Chicago Fed pres said there has been a flattening in the economic data & some economists think the US economy is stalling. “This is a very challenging time,” he added. A less optimistic path for the economy is just as likely as the baseline forecast for a steady improvement in the economy, he noted. For now, Evans said he sees the unemployment rate falling from 11.1% in Jun to 9.5% by the end of 2020 & to 6.5% by the end of 2021.
Fed’s Evans says the power to get the economy going lies with Congress
US factory orders rose 6.2% in Jun to mark the 2nd increase in a row, pointing to a steady rebound after widespread shutdowns in the early stages of the pandemic. The forecast predicted a 4.6% increase. Even after a spike in coronavirus cases since Jun, the early evidence suggests that manufacturers made further strides in Jul as well. A survey of industry execs rose to a 15-month high, according to a closely report produced by the Institute for Supply Management. Orders for durable goods rose a revised 7.6% in Jul, the gov said, a bit higher than the initially reported 7.3% increase. Orders for non-durable goods such as oil, chemicals & textiles & advanced 5%, the Commerce Dept said. The manufacturing side of the US economy strengthened further in Jul even as some states reimposed restrictions to combat the latest coronavirus spike. Yet production remains well below precrisis trends & businesses say they are still plagued by uncertainty. Factory orders are off 10% from a year earlier. Until the virus is brought under control, American factories are expected to produce fewer goods with fewer workers, making it harder for the economy to fully recover.
U.S. factory orders climb 6.2% in June, signaling steady manufacturing recovery
Home Depot (HD), a Dow stock, said it will open 3 distribution centers in the Atlanta area over the next 18 months to keep up with those expectations, which have only been amplified since the pandemic. “We like to say that retail has changed more in the past four years than in our 40-year history,” said Stephanie Smith, senior VP of supply chain. “Covid has even brought this more to light. Customers expect to shop whenever, wherever, however they want.” Smith said the pandemic has underscored the importance of a strong & flexible supply chain. During the spread of the coronavirus, customers have gravitated even more to online shopping. HD has raced to meet customer demand for speed & convenience. It began rolling out curbside pickup in late Mar, & the service is now available at most stores. Before late Mar, customers had to go inside to pick up online purchases. Online sales grew by 80% year over year in Q1. About $4.2B (roughly 15%) of its net sales came from online. More than 60% of the time, customers picked up those online orders at a store. HD wants to offer same-day & next-day delivery to 90% of the US population. In Dec, it said about 50% of the US population had one-day delivery options. The stock rose 1.68.
If you would like to learnmore about HD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/HD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Home Depot to speed up deliveries with new distribution centers as pandemic fuels home
Gold futures powered higher, gathering momentum late in the session to finish at a fresh record as gov bond yields headed lower & as the $'s recent rebound receded somewhat, allowing the precious metal to make an assault on a record close above the $2K threshold. The sustained rally in gold has come as govs across the world have flooded their economies with financial aid to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. .And investors are betting that the uptrend for the yellow metal continues as the $ weakens & interest rates remain around 0% in many parts of the world. Dec gold rose a whopping $34 (1.7%) at $2021 an ounce, after settling about even yesterday and starting out with meager gains today.
Gold ends above $2,000 for the first time in history as U.S. dollar and bond yields recede
Oil futures reversed early losses, ending higher as traders awaited data on US crude inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude for Sept rose 69¢ (1.7%) to finish at $41.70 a barrel, after trading as low as $40.14. Oct Brent crude ended with a gain of 28¢ (0.6%) at $44.43 a barrel. US crude inventories fell 10.6M barrels last week, the largest drop of the year. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group, is expected to release its weekly estimate later today, while the Energy Information Administration’s more closely watched data is due tomorrow. Analysts are looking for EIA crude inventories to show a fall of 4.1M barrels. Meanwhile, worries remain about overall demand as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. The global tally of confirmed cases climbed above 18.3M, according to Johns Hopkins University, & the death toll rose to 694K. However, the number of new US cases of COVID-19 was below 50K for a 2nd day, with some of the most hard-hit states showing a slowdown in infections. Worries about the continued spread of the virus in the US & elsewhere have been seen as a negative for refining margins, which could crimp demand for crude.
Oil finishes higher ahead of U.S. supply data
Stocks were higher on hopes for a new relief package out of DC, even though those guys don't seem interested in getting the work done. New economic data is encouraging & the macro story on fighting the virus has been looking better in the last few days. At the same time, gold continues to be in heavy demand by nervous investors, among others.
Dow Jones Industrials
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