Monday, August 10, 2020

Markets rise while Congress battles over a stimulus bill

Dow jumped up 226, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ fell 87 from Fri's record.  The MLP added 1+ to the 133s. index & the REIT index crawled up 1 to the 364s.  Junk bond funds gained & Treasuries were little changed.  Oil rose to about 42 & gold surged 21 to 2049.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil42.13
  +0.91+2.2%

GC=FGold  2 ,058.90
+30.90+1.5%

 





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The Trump administration is open to resuming coronavirus aid talks with Dem leaders & would offer more aid money to try to reach a compromise, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.  “The president is determined to spend what we need to spend. ... We’re prepared to put more money on the table,” he added.  Mnuchin declined to say when he & White House chief of staff Mark Meadows would restart discussions with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer after negotiations ground to a halt on Fri.  He said the Dem leaders seemed “willing to compromise” as the sides stand Ts of $s apart in what they want to spend to combat the pandemic’s damage to Americans’ health & wallets.  “Again, if we can get a fair deal we’re willing to do it this week,” Mnuchin added.  The Treasury secretary spoke after Pres Ttump tried to offer coronavirus aid through executive order over the weekend.  Officials do not see the his actions as a permanent fix, as they are limited in scope & constitutionally questionable.  Only legislation from Congress, which controls federal spending, would unquestionably enshrine lifelines designed to boost the US health-care system & economy.  Trump's orders would extend extra federal unemployment insurance, which expired at the end of Jul, at a reduced level of $400 per week.  The federal gov would cover 75% of the payment with disaster relief funds, while states would cover the rest.  Mnuchin argued states would have enough money to cover their share of the cost, even though many face budget crunches due to the pandemic.

Mnuchin is open to restarting virus relief talks: ‘We’re prepared to put more money on the table’

China said it would apply sanctions against 11 US citizens including officials in response to DC's move on Fri to impose sanctions on 11 King kong & Chinese officials whom it accused of curtailing political freedoms in the city.  Among those targeted were Senators Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley & Pat Toomey & Representative Chris Smith, as well as individuals at non-profits & rights groups.  "In response to those wrong U.S. behaviors, China has decided to impose sanctions on individuals who have behaved egregiously on Hong Kong-related issues," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a regular press briefing.  Relations between the 2 countries have deteriorated over issues ranging from trade to Hong Kong & China's handling of COVID-19.  DC on Fri imposed sanctions on Hong Kong Chief Exec Carrie Lam as well as the city's current & former police chiefs, under an exec order signed by Pres Trump.  Those sanctions freeze any US assets owned by the officials & generally bar Americans from doing business with them.  The US lawmakers targeted by Beijing have been vocal critics of a new national security law that expands Beijing's authority in Hong Kong.

China slaps US citizens, including pols, with penalties for behaving 'egregiously'

Small businesses are feeling somewhat more optimistic, adapting operations to the new economic & public health normal as coronavirus cases continue to rise around the county.  But even in the face of progress, the worst is far from over for Main Street, which is facing an unprecedented & rocky recovery.  Small business confidence ticked up in Q3, to 53 from a record low of 49 in Q2, according to the CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey.  Even with the rebound, the confidence reading is the 2nd-lowest score in the survey's history & 8 points off where confidence stood to start the year.  “This is not the V-shaped recovery we were hoping for. Things are certainly better than they were last quarter, but far off their marks from what we had seen earlier this year and last year,” said Laura Wronski, research scientist at SurveyMonkey.  “These small businesses are going to have long-lasting effects from this pandemic.”  The operating environment on Main Street has been bleak, even with gov loan assistance like the Paycheck Protection Program meant to offer a lifeline to struggling businesses.  The House Small Business Committee last month reported 110K small businesses had closed permanently & another 7.5M across the country were facing the same fate.  Enhanced unemployment benefits that gave consumers more spending power in recent months also expired at the end of Jul, which stands to impact businesses of all sizes.  Just 36% of businesses say that current operating conditions are “good” in this qtr's survey, which is a major improvement from last qtr's 18%.  But nearly ¼ say conditions are bad — 3 times the number who said conditions were poor to kick off the year.  The survey was conducted from Jul 20-27 among more than 2K small business owners nationwide.  “I think that small business owners see that economics are opening and we are not going to be moving backwards,” said Karen Kerrigan, pres of the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council, a Main Street advocacy group.  “They see a light at the end of the tunnel.”

Small business confidence rebounds from all-time low, but Main Street still has a long way to go

With a stalled stimulus bills, there is plenty for traders to assess.  Meanwhile deteriorating relations between the US & China are a damper on tech stocks which dominate the NAZ.   And the Dow has its eyes on 28K & is less than 2K from setting a new record with all the tumult in DC & on China relations.

Dow Jones Industrials







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