Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Markets climbed cautiously after Powell's testimony before Congress

Dow rose 112 (with selling into the close), advancers slightly ahead of decliners & NAZ gained 114 for a new record.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to 200 & the REIT index fell 2 to 450.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries crawled higher in price.  Oil slid lower to 73 & gold was off 3 to 1779 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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White House chief medical advisor Dr Anthony Fauci said the highly contagious delta variant is the “greatest threat” to the nation’s attempt to eliminate Covid-19.  Delta, first identified in India, now makes up about 20% of all new cases in the US, up from 10% about 2 weeks ago, Fauci said during a news conference on the pandemic.  He said delta appears to be “following the same pattern” as alpha, the variant first found in the UK, with infections doubling in the US about every 2 weeks.  “Similar to the situation in the U.K., the delta variant is currently the greatest threat in the U.S. to our attempt to eliminate Covid-19,” he added.  Fauci's comments come after CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky urged Americans to get vaccinated against Covid, saying she expects delta to become the dominant coronavirus variant in the US.  Studies suggest it is around 60% more transmissible than alpha, which was more contagious than the original strain that emerged from Wuhan, China, in late 2019.  “As worrisome as this delta strain is with regard to its hyper transmissibility, our vaccines work,” Walensky said.  If you get vaccinated, “you’ll be protected against this delta variant,” she added.  The UK recently saw the delta variant become the dominant strain there, surpassing alpha, which was first detected in the country last fall.  The delta variant now makes up more than 60% of new cases in the UK.  Health officials say there are reports that the delta variant also causes more severe symptoms, but that more research is needed to confirm those conclusions.  Still, there are signs that the delta strain could provoke different symptoms than other variants.  Fauci said the US has “the tools” to defeat the variant, urging more Americans to get fully vaccinated against Covid & “crush the outbreak”

Fauci declares delta variant ‘greatest threat’ to the nation’s efforts to eliminate Covid

The first day of Amazon's (AMZN) 48-hour Prime Day event is expected to have driven the most online sales over a 24-hour period so far this year, according to new data.  Sales during the first 24 hours of the megasale are set to surpass $5.6B, representing 8.7% growth year over year, according to an index tracked by Adobe Analytics, which looks at more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites & over 100M items across 18 product categories.  Mon also surpassed the $5.1B that consumers spent online over Thanksgiving Day last year, Adobe said.  However, Adobe isn't comparing this year's Prime Day shopping extravaganza with last year's, which occurred in Oct.  The event had traditionally taken place in Jul until the Covid pandemic forced a delay.  And this year, AMZN shifted the deals slightly sooner so that Prime Day would fall during what is typically a shopping lull in Q2.  AMZN stock was up 48 (1.4%).
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Retailers rang up $5.6 billion in sales during the first 24 hours of Prime Day

Gold futures logged their 3rd decline in 4 session, with commodity investors eying congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for hints on next price direction for the precious metal.  Futures prices settled lower about ½ hour before Powell was due to begin his testimony to the House select subcommittee on the coronavirus pandemic.  His remarks will be the central bank chief's first since last Wed when he acknowledged that policy makers had started to discuss the eventual reduction of the Fed's monthly bond purchases.  The Fed last week surprised markets at its policy meeting by revealing policy makers now expect 2 interest rate increases by the end of 2023, earlier than previously anticipated.  Aug gold fell $5 to settle at $1777 an ounce, following a 0.8% gain yesterday.  Cleveland Federal Reserve Pres Loretta Mester said she didn't want to adjust the central bank's easy monetary policy stance until the labor market made more progress over the summer.  Gold benefits from a looser monetary policy that supports lower interest rates.  Yesterday, gold scored a partial rebound from sharp losses last week, but is still seen in a downtrend that has taken it below psychologically significant levels at $1900 & $1800.

Gold prices log third decline in four sessions

Some of  Pres Biden's top advisers headed to Capitol Hill to continue negotiations on a bipartisan infrastructure package, meeting in person with a coalition of senators who unveiled a nearly $1T framework 2 weeks ago.  Although the 2 sides have inched closer in recent weeks toward striking an agreement, they remain fiercely divided over how to pay for it.  The coalition of 21 senators have floated several possibilities to fund their proposal, including repurposing coronavirus relief funds, closing the tax gap, using leftover unemployment insurance money from the 26 states that are prematurely opting out of a federal relief program & raising the federal gas tax.  If the meeting goes well, Biden will likely host some of the lawmakers at the White House to continue discussions.  The bipartisan lawmakers – 11 Reps & 10 Dems –  are eyeing a scaled-back $974B measure that would include about $579B in new funding.  The money would be spent over the course of 5 years on core infrastructure projects, like roads & bridges, transit systems & broadband.  While the $928B offer is much closer in line to Biden's target, there remains an ideological gulf between the 2 sides over what constitutes infrastructure.  The latest plan notably does not include new spending on a wide range of areas where Biden has recommended billions, such as elder care & veterans hospitals.

Biden officials head to Congress to continue infrastructure negotiations

Oil futures settled lower, with global benchmark Brent crude retreating from highs above $75 a barrel, on expectations that OPEC+ may decide to further boost crude production starting in Aug.  Reports said Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries & its allies (OPEC+) had discussed a further relaxation of production curbs beginning in Aug.  The most-active US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Aug which became the front-month contract at the end of the session, fell 27¢ (0.4%) to settle at $72.85 a barrel.  Jul WTI crude which expired at the end of today's session, lost 60¢ (0.8%) at $73.06 a barrel.  Aug Brent crude fell 9¢ at $74.81 a barrel after hitting an intraday high at $75.30.  Brent last traded above $75 in Apr 2019 on an intraday basis.  It hasn't settled at a level that high since Oct 2018.

Oil settles lower as OPEC+ reportedly weighs an August increase in crude output

Investors liked (but did not love) what Powell had to say in his testimony & Dow went up about 100 after his comments.  Give that a grade of C+.  Tomorrow will be a new day & persistent problems such fighting the virus, inflation & the spending package in Congress will get more attention.

Dow Jones Industrials




 




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