Dow inched up 13, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 49. The MLP index was fractionally higher to the 206s & the REIT index was off 2+ to the 458s. Junk bond funds continued weak & Treasuries slid lower. Oil was up chump change but remained under 71 & gold dropped 17 to 1878 (more on both below). 34,529
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The median listing prices of new homes saw double-digit growth for the 43rd week in a row for the week beginning Jun 5. Median listing prices grew at a rate of 13.6% this week over the last year, which is higher than last week's growth rate but lower than any monthly growth rates seen so far in 2021, according to Realtor.com's weekly housing trends report. "In addition to a time of remembrance, for many, the Memorial Day weekend marks the start of the summer complete with barbecues, vacations, and pool or beach time. It’s also when home buying season is in full swing," Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale wrote. New listings were down 1% after 8 consecutive weeks of increases year-over-year, though Hale pointed to a late Memorial Day weekend, "rising seller sentiment and more homeowners planning to sell" as the reasoning behind what she expects to be a short-lived dip in new sellers. Additionally, total active inventory, or the total number of homes for sale currently, is also down 46% from this time last year, which Hale said is a "substantial improvement over the last few weeks." Time on the market, however, was 35 days faster than last year. In May, the median home listing price hit a consecutive 4-week, record-high of more than $380K & will likely reach new records this summer before dropping this fall. "With home prices at record highs, seller confidence up, and more homeowners planning to make a move, we expect that we’ll see more new sellers in the weeks ahead, making this dip a temporary one," Hale wrote. More than 66% of Realtor.com survey respondents said right now is a "good time to sell."
New home listing prices see 43rd straight week of double-digit growth
After hitting a pandemic high in Apr & falling precipitously in May the Univ of Mich's index of consumer sentiment rebounded in Jun. The gauge of consumer sentiment rose to a preliminary Jun reading of 86.4 from a final May reading of 82.9. The forecast was for a reading of 84.4 in Jun. Sentiment remains below the 13-month high of 88.3 reached in Apr. A sub-index that measures how consumers feel about the economy right now rebounded to 90.6 in Jun from 89.4 last month, due to rapid job gains in recent month. Rising inflation fears are still weighing on Americans, leaving Americans feeling that risks to the economy loom. Consumer optimism about the next 6 months rose to 90.6 in May to 89.4 in the prior month. Consumers expectations about inflation edged down in Jun but remained elevated. Expectations of inflation slipped to 4.0% over the next year, down from 4.6% in May, the 2nd highest level over the past year. Consumers expect inflation to run at a 2% pace over the next 5 years. Americans are feeling the benefits of a relatively strong recovery as more than 1M jobs in the past 3 months, but they are still concerned about the prospect of runaway inflation. On Thurs, the gov reported that the consumer price index, rose 5% over the past 12 months ended in May, the largest annual increase since 2008.
U.S. consumer sentiment rebounds in June
A bipartisan spending proposal put forward by a group of senators yesterday is already drawing criticism from some progressive Dems, who are amping up pressure on the Biden administration to go it alone on a sweeping, multiT-$ spending package. A coalition of 10 senators reached an agreement for $579B in new spending that would be funded without any tax hikes, according to a source familiar with the matter. The proposal would spend $974B over 5 years & $1.2T if continued over 8 years. The senators did not release details of the plan, but the source said it would remain focused on core infrastructure projects. But some Dems want Pres Biden to abandon bipartisan talks & pursue his initial $2.3T American Jobs Plan unilaterally. The measure, first unveiled at the beginning of Apr, would make massive investments in the nation's crumbling roads & bridges, as well as transit systems, green energy, veterans' hospitals & care for disabled & elderly Americans. "Why let Republicans decide the size of an infrastructure bill when reconciliation is a perfectly legitimate process (used unapologetically by the GOP when they were in power) to do a bill that will actually make a difference?" tweeted Sen Chris Murphy. "It's not cheating to use the rules." Progressive lawmakers are increasingly agitating to use budget reconciliation, an obscure Senate tool that allows them to bypass Reps & pass legislation using their slimmest-possible majority, as negotiations drag into their 4th week. But the push puts them at odds with the White House, which has signaled it's open to pursuing a bipartisan deal. "Let's face it. It's time to move forward," Sen Elizabeth Warren said. "The Republicans have held us up long enough." That sentiment was echoed by Rep Pramila Jayapal, the chair of the 100-member House Progressive Caucus, who maintained that she would not vote for a bill unless it included significant funding to address climate change.
Bipartisan spending proposal faces backlash from progressive Dems
Gold futures declined, with strength in the $ helping to send prices to their lowest finish in more than a week. The ICE US Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against a basket of 6 major rivals, rose 0.6% today, on track for a weekly rise of 0.4%. A stronger $ can weigh on commodities priced in the currency, making them more expensive to users of other currencies. Gold for Aug fell $16 (0.9%) to settle at $1879 an ounce — the lowest settlement since Jun 3. Prices based on the most-active contracts settled down about 0.7% for the week. Gold prices were lower year to date, but have climbed by more than 9% for the qtr. Price for the metal rose modestly yesterday after data showed US inflation continued to run hot in May, though the yellow metal, traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, didn't initially find support on the news.
Gold settles lower, as dollar strength pulls prices to the lowest finish in over a week
Oil prices edged higher above $70 a barre, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year. Producers will need to increase output to keep up with demand recovery, the energy agency said in its Jun oil market report. It forecasts demand to rise in 2021 before growing at a faster rate next year, reaching 100.6M barrels a day (mb/d) by the end of 2022. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Jul rose 46¢ (0.7%) to $70.75 a barrel for a weekly rise of around 1.7%. Front-month WTI prices finished at $70.29 yesterday, the highest finish since Oct 2018. Aug Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 30¢ to $72.82 a barrel. Brent, which closed at $72.52 a barrel yesterday, the highest since May 2019, had a weekly climb of more than 1%. The IEA said that following the record decline of 8.6 mb/d in 2020, global oil demand was now forecast to rebound by 5.4 mb/d in 2021 & a further 3.1 mb/d in 2022. “The recovery will be uneven not only among regions but across sectors and products. While the end of the pandemic is in sight in advanced economies, slow vaccine distribution could still jeopardize the recovery in non-OECD countries,” it said. The IEA also said there was scope for OPEC+ to boost production by 1.4 mb/d above its Jul 2021 to Mar 2022 target. “Our first detailed look at 2022 balances confirms earlier expectations that OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep the world oil markets adequately supplied.” Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to keep its current plan to gradually increase oil production thru Jul in place, sending crude oil futures to their highest settlements in more than 2 years. It's next meeting will be held Jul 1. The Energy Information Administration on yesterday reported a weekly jump in US gasoline inventories & a fall in implied demand for the fuel.
Just a few hours ago I mentioned the fate of bills in DC are subject to change & now the infrastructure bill has run into headwinds. Nothing new. The forecast for oil demand is encouraging, as they see solid global growth going forward. Dow slid back all 50 this week.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment