Wednesday, June 9, 2021

Markets struggle while Treasury yields decline

Dow went up 37, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ gained 24.  The MLP index added 1+ to 202 & the REIT index rose 1+ to 457 for another record.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were in strong demand.  Oil inched higher above 70 & gold was about even at 1893.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil70.43
+0.38+0.5%







GC=FGold   1,897.30
+2.90+0.2%





 

 




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Sen Joe Manchin is resisting growing pressure from his fellow Dems to go it alone on Pres Biden's proposed $2.3T tax & spending plan, even as infrastructure negotiations between the White House & a coalition of Reps ran into a wall this week.  Asked yesterday whether he supported using budget reconciliation to pass the package, known as the American Jobs Plan, Manchin said: "I’m not even close to the thought process on that. We’re just trying to find an infrastructure bill we can all agree on."  Manchin's comments come amid signs the bipartisan talks are coming to an end after months of back & forth, with the 2 sides still deeply divided over the size & scope of a package to rebuild the nation's crumbling roads & bridges.  Although Biden is expected to meet with Sen Shelley Moore Capito, the West Virginia Republican spearheading the negotiations, she told reporters that she does not have plans to produce a new counteroffer after Biden rejected a proposal to increase a $928B plan by $50.  The pres has said that he wants at least $1T in new spending.  "We made a good robust effort. The biggest infrastructure package ever with pay-fors that we delineated," Capito said Mon.  "And he said, ‘That’s not enough.’ So, I accept that. I mean I have to. He’s the president."  Capito added: "We’re going to keep talking. But I’m not coming back with anything in the next 24 hours."

Manchin pushes back against infrastructure bill as bipartisan negotiations crumble

Dr Scott Gottlieb said that he believes enough Americans are fully vaccinated to delay the risk presented by the Delta Covid variant.  “The question is: Are there enough unvaccinated people that this could get into the population and start spreading more widely? I happen to think it’s unlikely that this is going to be a threat until the fall, perhaps,” he added.  Gottlieb's comments come as speculation grows that the UK could delay the lifting of all lockdown measures in England, set for Jun 21, due to increasing prevalence of the Delta variant, which was first discovered in India.  The most severe cases involving the Delta variant appear to be in unvaccinated people or those who are only partially vaccinated, Gottlieb noted.  “It does seem to be a more dangerous variant. That said, two doses of the vaccine seem to be very protective.”  “People who are fully vaccinated, I think, are pretty well protected against this new variant based on the accruing evidence,” added Gottlieb, led the FDA in the from 2017-2019.

Dr. Gottlieb: ‘More dangerous’ Covid variant unlikely major U.S. risk until fall

Mortgage rates fell slightly last week, but not enough to light a fire under mortgage demand.  Total mortgage application volume decreased 3.1% for the week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) seasonally adjusted index.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548K or less) decreased to 3.15% from 3.17%, with points decreasing to 0.34 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.  While rates fell slightly, they were not as low as the record levels we saw last fall & that is why refinancing demand is not responding.  Refinance applications fell 5% last week & were 27% lower than a year ago.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 60.4% of total applications from 61.3% the previous week.  “With fewer homeowners able to take advantage of lower rates, the refinance share dipped to the lowest level since April,” said Joel Kan, MBA's associate VP of economic & industry forecasting.  Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home were essentially flat from the previous week & 24% lower than a year ago.  “The large annual decline was the result of Memorial Day 2021 being compared to a nonholiday week, as well as the big upswing in applications seen last May once pandemic-induced lockdowns started to lift,” Kan added.  It was also the result of sky-high home prices.  Fewer buyers can now afford a home.  This was apparent in the average loan size for purchase applications.  It fell to $407K, below the record $418K set in Feb, but still far above 2020's average of $353K.

Mortgage rates drop, but not enough for priced-out homebuyers

Stocks meander again as investors digest the dreary news from DC about the failed negotiations on massive spending bills.  Inflation data is coming tomorrow & that has the potential to shake up the stock market.  Today buying activity is in defensive Treasuries.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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