Friday, June 25, 2021

Markets rise on hopes for the infrastructure bill

Dow gained 238, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ was off 9 following its recent rally.  The  MLP index was off 1+ to the 196s & the REIT index went up 3+ to 451.  Junk bond funds remained mixed & Treasuries were heavily sold, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury up 5 basis point to 1.53%.  Oil rose to about 74 & gold inched up 1 to 1778 (more on both below).

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More than 4100 people have been hospitalized or died with Covid-19 in the US even though they've been fully vaccinated, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).  So far, at least 750 fully vaccinated people have died after contracting Covid but the CDC noted that 142 of those fatalities were asymptomatic or unrelated to Covid-19.  The CDC received 3907 reports of people who have been hospitalized with breakthrough Covid infections, despite being fully vaccinated.  Of those, more than 1000 of those patients were asymptomatic or their hospitalizations weren't related to Covid-19, the CDC said.  “To be expected,” Dr Paul Offit, a top advisor to the Food & Drug Administration on children's vaccines said.  “The vaccines aren’t 100% effective, even against severe disease. Very small percentage of the 600,000 deaths.”  Breakthrough cases are Covid-19 infections that bypass vaccine protection.  They are very rare & many are asymptomatic.  The vaccines are highly effective but don't block every infection.  All 3 vaccines have been found to be extremely effective in preventing people from getting severely sick from Covid.  The CDC doesn't count every breakthrough case.  It stopped counting all breakthrough cases May 1 & now only tallies those that lead to hospitalization or death, a move the agency was criticized for by health experts.

CDC says more than 4,100 people have been hospitalized or died with Covid breakthrough infections

The UK has one of the highest Covid-19 vaccination rates in the world, yet it's seeing a new surge in coronavirus cases largely attributed to the delta variant that first originated in India.  Experts say that close attention is being paid to the latest data out of the UK as it could be a bellwether for others.  And there is a fear that where the UK now treads, others, like the US, could follow.  “All eyes (are) on UK Covid trends,” Kallum Pickering, senior economist and director at Berenberg Bank, said in a note.  “With its high vaccination rate but a rising number of daily recorded infections, the UK has turned into the test case for whether mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 can bring [an] end to the repeated cycles of lockdowns and other harsh social distancing protocols that have wreaked havoc on the global economy ever since the pandemic struck in early 2019,” he added.  Pickering noted that medical data suggests that the UK's high rate of vaccination has significantly weakened the link between recorded Covid infections & complications from the disease, supporting the bank's call that “the U.K. can get through the new wave of infections without having to tighten restrictions and thus with only limited economic damage.”  He said the data highlighted that this wave of infections was unlike previous ones with the number of recorded infections rising at a slower pace than during the previous wave, & that there had been no clear rise in deaths despite the rise in cases.  Secondly, he noted that new hospital admissions had increased less than recorded infections, & by much less than during the winter wave.

The UK’s Covid vaccine program and delta surge means it’s now a test case for the world

Gold futures ended higher, finding support from a decline in the $ over the course of the week, as traders weighed data showing a rise in US inflation, but no change to consumer spending.  Prices for the precious metal scored a weekly gain, following 3-consecutive weeks of declines.   The personal-consumption expenditures index (PCE) the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator, increased 0.4% in May, while the core reading, excluding volatile food & energy prices, rose 0.5%.  On an annual basis, the PCE deflator rose 3.9% for the year, the biggest increase since 2008.  Excluding food & energy prices, the core PCE rose 3.4% in the year to May, the fastest increase since 1992, the Commerce Dept.  However, consumer spending was basically flat in May, missing forecasts, while personal income declined by a less than expected 2%.  Aug gold rose $1 to settle at $1777 an ounce, following a 0.4% decline yesterday.  For the week, bullion based on the most-active contract saw a 0.5% gain, following 3-consecutive weekly declines.  Gold investors have been their attention to new rules, known as Basel III that come into effect on Mon for European banks that may shake up the market for the precious metal.

Gold futures end higher to tally first weekly climb in 4 weeks

Oil futures climbed to tally a 5th consecutive weekly gain as investors remained upbeat about demand amid a global economic recovery.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug rose 75¢ (1%) to settle at $74.05 a barrel, lifting the US benchmark by 3.9% for the week, based on the front-month contracts.  Prices marked the highest finish since 2018.  Global benchmark Brent crude's Sep contract which is the most active, climbed 57¢ (0.8%) to $75.38 a barrel, while the front-month Aug contract added 62¢ (0.8%) to $76.18 a barrel, settling at the highest since 2018.  Brent finished with a 3.6% weekly rise.  OPEC+ members are expected to make their decision on production levels during their official meeting Jul 1.

Oil prices tally a 5th straight weekly rise on demand optimism

Buyers were interested in ordinary stocks today as shown by strength in the Dow while tech shares on NAZ hit a pause time.  Dow as up an impressive 1150 for the week.  NAZ gained 330 in the first 4 days setting new records & then was off a tad today. .Investors are feeling a lot better than last Fri.  The possibility of geting the infrastructure bill is about the most exciting event for the bulls presently.  However, that still faces an uncertain future.

Dow Jones Industrials








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