Tuesday, June 8, 2021

Markets edge higher as signs of labor shortage are reported

Dow fell 24, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 25.  The MLP index added 1+ to 201 & the REIT index rose 2+ to the 255s.  Junk bond fund inched higher & Treasuries were purchased by negative thinking investors.  Oil climbed in the 69s & gold was off 2 to 1896.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil69.04
-0.19-0.3%


















GC=FGold   1,896.10
-2.70-0.1%
















 

 




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Job openings in Apr soared to a new record high, with 9.3M vacancies coming as the economy rapidly recovered from its pandemic depths.  The standard set in Apr was well above the 8.3M in Mar that itself was a new series high going back to 2000 for the Labor Dept Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).  Federal Reserve policymakers closely watch the JOLTS numbers for indications of labor market slack, though they run a month behind the more widely publicized nonfarm payrolls count.  Markets had been looking for a JOLTS number around 8.2M.  The big jump in job openings came during a month when hiring disappointed.  Payrolls increased by just 278K at a time when the forecast was for growth around 1M.  However, the Labor Dept has struggled with seasonal adjustments compounded by the uniqueness of the virus situation & the JOLTS numbers indicated that the jobs market is poised for continued strong growth ahead.  One big challenge for employers is finding available labor.  Child care issues, ongoing fears about the pandemic & the lure of enhanced unemployment benefits has kept the unemployment rolls at 9.3M, about 3.6m hire than prior to the pandemic.  The hire rate for Apr remained subdued at 69K, or an unchanged 4.2% from the previous month.  Quits, which are seen as a gauge of worker confidence that they can find other employment, rose considerably, to 3.95M.  That represented growth of 384K, an increase of 10.8% that took the quits rate as a share of the labor force up to 2.7% from 2.5%.  Retail saw a particularly sharp rise in quits up to 4.3% from 3.6%.

Job openings set new record of 9.3 million amid economic reopening

Americans' demand for imports abated in Apr, easing the US trade deficit from the record level it had hit the month before, according to Census Bureau data released.  The goods & services shortfall declined to $69B for the month, down from the upwardly revised $75B in Mar, the highest level for a data series that stretches back to 1992.  While exports increased 1.1% to $205B imports declined 1.4% to $274B, which equated to an 8.2% decline in the trade deficit.  Even with the monthly decrease that still left the trade imbalance 30% higher than the year-ago level, a time when the US economy largely remained in shutdown mode due to harsh restrictions imposed on businesses in an effort to control the Covid-19 pandemic.  Treasury bond yields fell following the trade news, with the benchmark 10-year note most recently trading at 1.53%, approaching its lowest since mid-Apr.  A declining appetite for imported consumer goods led the import decline.  That category fell by $2.6B, driven largely by a $1.7B drop in cell phones & other household goods.  Automotive vehicles, parts & engines also decreased $1.1B at a time when a semiconductor shortage has hampered production & caused shutdowns at some plants.  Services imports actually increased $700M for the month, thanks to boosts from travel & transport.  The China trade deficit fell to $32.4B after surging 22% in Mar.

U.S. trade deficit narrows slightly from record levels

The political advocacy group backed by billionaire Charles Koch has been pressuring Sen Joe Manchin to oppose key parts of the Dem agenda, including filibuster reform & voting rights legislation.  That lobbying effort appears to be paying off.  Manchin, in a recent op-ed, wrote that he opposed eliminating the filibuster & that he would not vote for the For the People Act, which, advocates say, would limit the influence of big money donors on elections.  Pres Biden has called some of the voting restrictions proposed by Rep leaders in several states “sick” & “un-American.”  The pres has praised the For the People Act & has said the filibuster must be changed.

Joe Manchin is opposing big parts of Biden’s agenda as the Koch network pressures him

Strength in the US economy is a damper on pushing more gov aid for the economy.  Investors are wavering & buying Treasuries.  But stock averages remain near record highs.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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