Dow leaped 586 (closing near session highs), advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ rose 111. The MLP index roared ahead 6+ to the 201s & the REIT index soared an eye popping 9 to the 452s (back in record territory). Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were lower with some buying in the PM. Oil gained 1+ to the 73s & gold added 15 to 1784 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Dr Scott Gottlieb said the highly transmissible delta Covid variant, first discovered in India, could present challenges to US schools this fall given lower vaccination rates among children. “I think the reality is that kids are becoming more likely to be vectors of these new variants,” the former Food & Drug Administration commissioner (FDA) said. It's only been a little more than a month since the FDA cleared Pfizers's Covi (PFE) vaccine for use in kids ages 12 to 15. Moderna (MRNA), also a 2-shot regimen, asked the FDA to expand its emergency use authorization to cover adolescents 12-17. PFE's EUA initially covered 16 & up, while MRNA's is for 18 & older. “The old assumptions about children and children [not] driving community spread were based on the original strain of this virus,” he added. “With these new, more contagious variants, I think we’re going to see that children and schools do become more of a focal point of spread.” There are trials testing Covid vaccines in younger populations. PFE & its German partner BioNTech (BNTX) expect to have data for children ages 5-11 in the coming months. Gottlieb pointed to coronavirus case data in the UK, where the delta Covid variant is more prevalent than in the US led to Prime Minister Boris Johnson delaying the nation’s reopening. In the UK., the test positivity rate for people under the age of 24 is significantly higher than it is for people over the age of 65, a cohort with more vaccine protection, Gottlieb said. “There are some hopeful signs, but it is an epidemic among schools, among younger people who are unvaccinated. Older people who are vaccinated are not the ones spreading this and, by and large, they’re not getting as sick,” he added. “The case fatality rate is way down, not necessarily because this is a less dangerous variant. We don’t believe that that’s the case,” he noted. “The case fatality rate is down substantially because the people who would succumb to the virus are, by and large, vaccinated.” Gottlieb said the accumulating evidence around the delta variant's risk to unvaccinated people is unlikely to dramatically change how the FDA approaches clearing Covid shots for children. It was already a priority & will remain that way, said Gottlieb, who led the FDA from 2017-2019. However, he said the public health campaigns around administering the vaccines to kids, once they’re eligible, may take on increased focus due to the delta variant.
Dr. Gottlieb worries about spread of delta Covid variant in schools this fall
Iranian Pres-elect Ebrahim Raisi gave his first press conference
since the country's election, saying his priorities would be to
improve ties with regional neighbors & revive the 2015 nuclear deal — & at the same time squarely ruling out meeting with Pres
Biden. “We support the negotiations that guarantee our
national interests. … America should immediately return to the deal and
fulfil its obligations under the deal,” Raisi, the hardline cleric who
is himself under US sanctions. The 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, officially named the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action & led by the Obama administration & several other world powers, lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for
curbs to its nuclear program. Former Pres Trump pulled out
of the deal in 2018 & reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, crippling its
economy. Tehran has since ramped up its nuclear activity far beyond the deal's
limits in what it says is a protest against the sanctions — sanctions
that the US says it will not lift until Iran reverses its increased
nuclear activity, such as increased uranium enrichment & stockpiling. And
despite ongoing negotiations between JCPOA signatories in Vienna &
talk of “progress,” the 2 adversaries still appear to be at a
stalemate on major sticking points, such as Iran's transparency with
nuclear inspectors. Markets are now watching the talks & Raisi’s messages to glean what this might mean for the world's supply of oil. Iran's
oil exports were slashed to a mere fraction of what they once were as a
result of Trump's sanctions. A revival of the deal & lifting of the
levies could bring back 3.8M barrels per day of oil to the market
over time from a current 2.1M bpd, Iranian oil ministry
officials say. But that could be a long process due to underinvestment
in oilfields & its recent years of reduced output.
Iran’s President-elect Raisi rules out meeting Biden, oil markets look ahead
Gold futures ended higher, with the precious metal scoring a partial rebound from its steepest weekly decline since last Mar. Bullion's gains came as a surge in the $ receded somewhat after hitting its highest level in around 10 weeks & posting its sharpest weekly rise in over a year. The currency's advance has weighed on $-pegged assets, like gold and silver, mightily. Aug gold rose $13 (0.8%) to settle at $1782 an ounce, after the metal saw a weekly loss of 5.9%, marking the largest such loss for a most-active contract since the week ended Mar 13. Strength in the $ has potentially been one of the biggest headwinds for gold, which has withered since recently retaking a psychological perch at $1900 in late May. It hasn't traded above level since Jun 11. On Fri, St Louis Federal Reserve Pres James Bullard said he expects the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate in 2022, which sent gold prices back toward session lows. Today Bullard & Dallas Fed Pres Rob Kaplan said during a webinar, that they see high inflation persisting in 2022 above the central bank's 2% target, & at a stronger rate than many of their colleagues predict. Bullard isn't a voting member of the rate-setting FOMC this year but will be in 2022 & Kaplan will be a voting member in 2023. Against that backdrop, the ICE US Dollar Index edged lower by 0.4% in dealings today, easing back after last week's climb, contributing support for $-denominated prices of gold.
Gold prices finish higher after sharpest weekly skid in over a year
Oil futures sharply rose, sending US & global benchmark crude prices to their highest finish since 2018, on expectations that talks toward restoring the Iran nuclear deal will drag on following the country's presidential election late last week & amid continued recovery in energy demand. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude for Jul tacked on $2.02 (2.8%) to settle at $73.66 barrel. The Jul contract expires at the end of tomorrow's session. The most-active Aug contract rose $1.83 (2.6%) at $73.12. Aug Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose $1.39 (1.9%) to $74.90 a barrel. Both WTI & Brent marked their highest front-month contract settlements since Oct 2018. As was widely expected, hard-line judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi won Iran’s presidential election on Fri after his strongest competitors were disqualified from the contest. Raisi was sanctioned by the US 2 years ago for his role in the mass execution of political prisoners in 1988 when he was deputy prosecutor in Tehran, which quoted him as saying that everything he'd done in his time in office was to defend human rights. Top diplomats involved in talks between Iran & global powers attempting to restore the 2015 nuclear deal said Sun that negotiations had made progress A restoration of the deal would add significant amounts of supply to the global oil market as early as H2. Oil futures logged gains last week, despite a sharp selloff in other commodities tied in part to a surge higher by the $, which was lifted after the Federal Reserve signaled that policy makers expect rates to rise sooner than had been previously anticipated. A stronger $ can be a negative for commodities priced in the currency, making them more expensive to users of other currencies.
Oil rallies to highest finish since 2018 as traders keep eye on developments in Iran
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment