Friday, June 26, 2009

Lower stocks on higher savings rate

Profit taking after yesterday's big rally pulled stocks down. Dow fell 52, decliners ahead of advancers by 20% & NAZ was off only 2. The financial index has been going nowhere, modestly above 150, for 2 months.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
158.46
Change
-0.92
% Change
-0.6%



Below is a summary of the press release from Constellation Energy (CEP), down 68¢ to 2.69 after suspending their distribution. CEP slashed the distribution in Q1, now it's gone.

Constellation Energy Ptnrs completes borrowing base redetermination and suspends distribution (CEP) down 74¢ t6 2.63: Co announces that its lenders have completed a semi-annual review of the company's borrowing base pursuant to the terms of its credit agreements. Based on this review, the aggregate borrowing base under the credit agreements has been set at $225 million. The aggregate borrowing base had previously been set at $265 million.


The bad news from CEP did not bleed thru to other MLPs. The Alerian MLP index is up a fraction in a down market, trying to reach 220. REITs are down slightly & junk bonds funds are up a fraction.

Alerian MLP Index --- 1 month




Treasuries have been in demand after the yield on the 10 year touched 4% a couple of weeks ago. Today it's down 2 basis points to 3.53%.

10-year Treasury Yield Index - 1 month




Oil continues in its sideways trading range, below the 72 high reached earlier in Jun.

CLQ09.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 09...69.20 ...1.03
.......(1.5%)



Households pushed their savings rate in May to the highest level in 15 years, a big boost in incomes from the gov stimulus program led to limited increased spending. A higher savings rate is healthy in the long term, but in the short term the economy needs spending. Consumer spending rose 0.3% in May, in line with expectations. However incomes jumped 1.4%, the biggest gain in a year & outpacing 0.3% increase that was expected. The savings rate (which was near zero in early 2008) surged to 6.9%, the highest level since December 1993. This data suggests the recuperation period for consumers could be a long one.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises, Incomes Jump on Obama's Stimulus Efforts


California is the next bailout situation & they are getting desperate. At least bailing out CA will cost less than the banks or autos,

California’s Budget Impasse Intensifies as Cash Crisis Looms


Stocks are still fighting it out in the trenches after a couple of months with spectacular gains. Dow hasn't strayed far from 8½K.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 1 month

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