Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Stocks stuck in sideways rut

Dow slipped 7, decliners were 20% ahead of advancers but NAZ had a good day, up 11. Increased regulation for banks & bank kind of companies dominated tading today. Banks also felt selling pressure from downgrading of several banks by S&P

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
155.84
Change
-4.1
% Chang
-2.6%


The Alerian MLP Index is coming off an outstanding run this year, but is paying the price for those gains n the last few days. It dropped 4 to 218, bringing it back near a one month low. The supply of all those new units sold are weighing on the market. The REIT index fell 2 while junk bond funds also sold off.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks






Oil has been hanging in pretty well while commodities have been under pressure. The confusing situation in Iran keeps buyers nearby.

CLN09.NYM..Crude Oil Jul 09..70.96 ..Up 0.49
......(0.7%)



Treasuries are completing a 5 day rally, longest since the start of this year. The 10-year Treasury bond advance reduced its yield by 3 basis points to 3.65% (again, down from a high of 4% one week ago). The fears of inflation are receding combined with no additional supply (offerings) from the Treasury this week.

Treasuries Post Longest Rally Since January as Inflation Concern Lessens


The President proposed a major overhaul of the U.S. financial system, unveiling measures to restore confidence & prevent a repeat of the worst crisis to hit Wall Street since the Depression. The plan would give new powers to the Federal Reserve to oversee the entire financial system & create a new consumer protection agency to guard against the types of abuses that played a big role in the current crisis. One key provision is the FED would have regularity powers over banks & other institutions that essentially look like banks. The classic example from last year was GMAC, but this broad definition could even include Wal-Mart (WMT) with its huge credit card business. This announcement, which had been largely leaked, did not cause any major move in the markets.

Obama Lays Out `Sweeping Overhaul' of Financial Oversight Following Crisis


Stronger banks are repaying TARP, including JPMorgan (JPM), American Express (AXP), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), BB&T (BBT) & U.S. Bancorp (USB). Obviously they are trying to get the fed off their backs. Most fell in today's weak market for bank stocks.

Under the radar screen with all their problems is California, equivalent to the 8th largest economy in the world. It has less than 2 months to get its house in order. That will mean an ugly combination of tax hikes (such as on tobacco & energy companies) & spending cuts which generally hurt the weakest the hardest. Spending cuts also will bleed thru to companies, many states, not to mention countries such as China & Japan. Keep up on announcements from Cal.


Markets keep looking for direction. More gov regulation (meddling) is not the kind of news they like to hear.

Dow Jones Industrials --- YTD

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