Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Stocks lower on weak consumer confidence data

Dow is down 106, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ fell 11. The financial index joined in today's decline. It had a good run in Q2, but most of the gains came in the first 5 weeks. It started Q2 at 119 & shot up to 150 by early Apr. Since then it has been in a sideways band above 150.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
160.36
Change
-2.22
% Change
-1.4%


The Alerian MLP index pulled back 1+ taking it below 221. MLPs have had an outstanding qtr & 6 months, but their excitement may be dimming. REITs are flat while junk bond funds are down today.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




The yield on the 30 year Treasury dropped 3 basis points to 3.52% as the rate of decline for housing prices declined at 18% in Apr. The chart shows the plunge in yields during Q4 2008 & the sharp rise in H1 for 2009. Since bond prices are the mirror image of yields, bonds soared in Q4 from the flight to safety & then plunged this year when investors switched to high yield bonds. The plunge in bond prices made this the worst H1 for Treasuries in 3 decades.

10-Year Treasury Yield Index - 1 year




Oil is off today, but up sharply from 45 at the start of 2009. The bulls seem to be in charge of this market, whatever the reasons.

CLQ09.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 09...69.37 ...Down 2.12
.......(3.0%)


The index of consumer attitudes, from the Conference Board, dropped to 49.3 in Jun from 54.8 in May (but double the depressed levels back in Feb). Those saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 44.8% from 43.9% in May, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" slid to 4.5% from May's 5.8%. These figures suggest that economic conditions, while not as weak as earlier, are still weak.

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Unexpectedly Drops, Reflecting Weak Job Market


Q2 has been a great time for the markets (aside from Treasuries). However, the best days were early on, followed by a sluggish market. The latest reading on consumer confidences indicates more sluggish (at best) times are ahead.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 3 months

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