Thursday, June 11, 2009

Stocks crawl higher

Dow broke into the black for 2009, but it's slipping (barely above its starting point for 2009). Dow up 47 to 8794, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ up 10. Banks are strong, but nothing exceptional:


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
166.43
Change
1.51
% Change
0.9%


MLPs continue on defense, pulling back a fraction today. As a reminder for those who want to buy the index, JPMorgan Chase has an MLP index tracking fund trading under the symbol ARJ. REITs & junk bond funds are little changed. The VIX, volatility index, pulled back 1 to the 27s, as fears continue to recede this year.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




VIX ---- YTD





Oil reached another 2009 record on hopes of global economic recovery. China looks to be performing a lot better than the rest of the world.

CLN09.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 09...72.41 ...Up 1.08
.......(1.5%)



The number of new jobless claims fell more than expected last week. In addition, retail sales grew in May for the first time in 3 months. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by 24K to 601K, below analysts' estimates of 615K. However, the number claiming benefits for more than a week rose 59K to over 6.8M, the highest on record which began in 1967. Continuing claims have set records for 19 straight weeks. The 4 week average of claims fell to 622K, down from a high of 658K in early April. This is viewed as a sign that layoffs have peaked & the recession is bottoming out. By way of comparison, initial claims were 388K a year ago.

Retail sales rose in May, the first time in 3 months. There was a rebound in demand for autos & higher gas sales which offset weakness at department stores. Retail sales increased by 0.5% last month, the largest increase since sales rose 1.7% in Jan (following six straight declines). Excluding autos, retail sales also grew 0.5 percent in May.

US Initial Jobless Claims Decreased Last Week
U.S. Retail Sales Rise First Time in Three Months as Car Bargains Sought


The number of households on the verge of losing homes dipped in May from Apr. But now layoffs, rather than risky mortgages, are becoming the main reason that borrowers default. Foreclosures likely will remain high thru 2010. The 9.4% unemployment rate is expected to rise further, making matter worse. One in every 398 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing last month.

Dow keeps trying to break thru into the black for 2009. Maybe today.

Dow Jones Industrials -- 2 weeks


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