Sunday, June 28, 2009

Midyear review

This has been a stellar year for high yield securities & especially MLPs. The MLP Index began at 176 (with yields well into double digits) & has risen to the 221s for a rise of 26%. Their index including reinvested income rose more, from 428 to 560 or up 31%. High yield securities have been in demand. But there are clouds around. Constellation Energy (CEP) slashed the distribution in Q1 & Fri took it down to zero. Its units are back into the 2s. Two other MLPs cut distributions to help meet loan financial requirements on their loan agreements.

REIT index has not done well. It began the year at 151 fell to 101 at the end of Q1. Apr was a good month, but since then it has been trading sideways ending at 127 on Fri. They have had to endure one major bankruptcy & div cuts by even the strongest (like Simon Property, SPG). I see "for rent" signs & that is a national problem which will get worse.

Junk bonds have done very well from very depressed levels at the start of the year. Many offered yields of 20+%. Since then, 30-50% gains with reinvested divs are common. Yields have fallen to low double digits. Meanwhile, Treasuries sold off after one of their biggest yearly rallies in 2008. The yield on the 10 year Treasury shot up to 3½% from the low 2% area at the start of 2009 as bonds were sold (& reinvested in higher risk securities).

During this time S&P500 is up 1½% while Dow is down 4%. The time for big gains in high yield securities may be over for awhile. Realities of a slow recovery from the deepest recession since the Depression are getting more attention. Housing & autos business remains very soggy. Unemployment looks like it will take months before it peaks, then recovery will be slow. California is "going under" (whatever), another whopper size problem which will have to be dealt with. Next week will be a 4 day week for trading. It will give more time to better assess a recovery.

Aleriain MLP Index --- 6 months




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 6 months




1o-Year Tresury Yield Index - 6 months





Dow Jones Industrials --- 6 months

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