Thursday, June 18, 2009

Stocks slosh around

Markets are having a tough time getting a head of steam going for a rally. Dow rose 65, advancers ahead of decliners by only 10% & NAZ fell 2. Banks found buyers after falling 7% this week.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
159.24
Change
3.40
% Change
2.2%



The MLP index inched up, still in the 218s but down from 232 a couple of weeks ago. REITs & junk bond funds were little changed. Treasuries sank as the the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 12 basis points to 3.77%.

10-year Treasury Yld Index - 2 weeks





Oil remains in the 71s, up pennies. Below is a chart of OIL, an ETN tracking oil, to show how its price has behaved this year. After a big run up, it has been flattish in Jun.

OIL --- YTD




The forecast of economic activity rose in May, the 2nd straight gain following 7 months of declines. The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators, rose 1.2% in May, above the expected rise of 0.9%. The Conference Board also said activity in the six-month period through May rose 1.2%, the first time it has grown in 2 years.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Increases 1.2%, More Than Estimated


The number collecting unemployment benefits dropped for the first time since early January, although new claims for benefits rose slightly. The unemployment rolls fell by 148K to 6.7M in the week ending June 6, the largest drop in more than 7 years breaking a string of 21 straight increases in continuing claims. Initial claims rose by only 3K to 608K last week while the four-week average fell by 7K to 616K. The four-week average is at its lowest level since mid-February, suggesting the pace of job cuts is slowing.

US Unemployment Benefit Rolls Fall; Claims Rise


The president has introduced a lot of legislation for Congress to pass. Yesterday was just another whopper, bringing more financial regulation & looks like it is getting mixed reviews by Congress. One fundamental problem involves giving the Federal Reserve even more authority after they missed giving warnings about last year's financial meltdown. The mixed reaction today between the Dow rising & NAZ selling off describes the confusion in the markets about these changes.


Dow Jones Industrials -- 1 month




NASDAQ --- 1 month


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