Friday, January 7, 2011

Markets lower on inconclusive jobs data

Dow dropped 30,decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 9 after the unemployment report.  Bank stocks felt selling pressure, the Financial Index had a major decline off its 8 month high.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 216.95 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   (-3.47)  (1.6%)


The MLP index was up a fraction in the 364s, just below its record reached at the start of the week while the REIT index slipped pocket change.  Junk bond funds were even but Treasuries gained on weaker than expected jobs data.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond fell 7 basis points to 3.35%.

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.13%
U.S. 2-year
0.62%
U.S. 10-year
3.35%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Gold Set for the Longest Losing Run Since 2009

Photo:  Bloomberg

Oil rose as Canadian Natural Resources shut its Horizon oil sands project & gov data showed the unemployment rate fell more than expected in the US.  Gold dropped for a 4th day, falling to a 5 week low, on signs the US economy is recovering & a stronger dollar curbed investment demand.

CLG11.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 11...89.05 .....Up 0.67  (0.8%)

GCF11.CMX...Gold Jan 11.......1,355.50 ...Down 15.90  (1.2%)

Gold Super Cycle Link! Click Here


U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December

Photo:   Bloomberg

The U.S. economy added 103K in Dec, short of expectations of 175K, & the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, the lowest level since May 2009 according to the Labor Dept.  Payrolls for Nov & Oct were also revised higher by 70K jobs. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dropped from 9.8% in Nov, the biggest one-month decline since Apr 1998. The lower rate is partially a reflection of the participation rate falling as the labor force declined (people giving up looking for work). The ranks of unemployed fell to 14.5M from 15M, while the number of employed people increased 300K to 139M.  The latest increase in job growth is one of many signs that the economy is gradually emerging from its malaise following the official end of the recession in the summer of 2009.  A problem with the word gradually is that it also means painfully.  The chart below shows how the ADP  prediction for jobs growth has been unreliable.

U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4%




Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, in testimoney before the Senate Budget Committee said there is increased evidence that a self-sustaining recovery in consumer & business spending may be taking hold.  "Overall the pace of economic recovery seems likely to be moderately stronger in 2011 than it was in 2010," he said.  But he continue saying that a rebound in employment remains elusive, and that unemployment is likely to remain close to 8% two years from now.  "Persistently high unemployment, by damping household income and confidence, could threaten the strength and sustainability of the recovery," he added.  "It is widely understood that the federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path," he said. "Yet, as a nation, we have done little to address this critical threat to our economy."  However he cautioned against too much belt-tightening now.  "In their planning for the near term, fiscal policymakers will need to continue to take into account the low level of economic activity and the still-fragile nature of the economic recovery," he said.

Bernanke: Recovery Finally Taking Hold- CNNMoney



Apple (AAPL) said more than 1M apps have been downloaded in the first day its Mac App Store has been open, a sign computer users are embracing idea of consuming software through their iTunes account.  AAPL said the company is "amazed at the incredible response" the app store is getting after launching the store on Thurs. It's available to Mac users who have Snow Leopard, the latest version of the operating system, running on Macs (people with earlier versions will not be able to access the store).  Some apps are free, others, such as Apple's iLife programs for organizing photos, editing videos and other tasks, cost money.  The stock was up a fraction in the 334s, new record territory. 

Apple says 1M Mac apps downloaded in 1 day AP

Apple   ---   1 year




Jobs growth in Dec points to a slow economic recovery, markets are still assessing the news.  Dow started (as did most averages like for the MLPs) the year (& decade) charging out of the gate first thing Mon morning.  Since then there has been no follow thru.  So far this week the Dow is up about 100.  By traditional standards that forecasts a good month which in turn forecasts a good year.  I'm very suspicious about its meaning when averages have been slipping & sliding for 95% of the week.,


Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks





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