Friday, January 14, 2011

Markets not inspired by favorable earnings reports

Dow inched up 13, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 5. Early earnings reports are not bringing out buyers. Banks stocks rose, helped by JPMorgan earnings (see below).

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX
Value 224.26 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   2.67  (1.2%)


The MLP index gained ½ in the 372s, another record high & the REIT index was up a fraction in the 224s.  Junk bond funds were lower while Treasuries gained.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond fell 3 basis points to 3.27%. 

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.14%
U.S. 2-year
0.56%
U.S. 10-year
3.27%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Oil fell for a 2nd day after China moved to cool its economy, threatening the pace of fuel-demand growth in the world’s largest energy- consuming country.  Gold  took a nasty tumble even though there are reports that demand from India (the biggest user of bullion) remains strong.

CLG11.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 11...90.99 ...Down 0.41  (0.5%)

GCF11.CMX...Gold Jan 11...1,356.70 ...Down 30.20  (2.2%)


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Consumer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.5% in December

Photo:  Bloomberg

The cost of living in the US climbed more than forecast in Dec, led by higher fuel & food prices, while other goods & services showed the smallest annual increase on record. The consumer-price index (CPI) increased 0.5%, according to the Labor Dept. The core rate, excluding food & fuel costs, rose 0.1%. Core prices climbed 0.8% in 2010 as joblessness above 9% encouraged companies to offer more promotions. Limited inflation & a labor market struggling to recover are allowing Federal Reserve to stick to its plan on additional monetary stimulus.  For all of 2010, consumer prices rose 1.5%, the smallest in 2 years.  The core rate increase was the smallest since record- keeping began in 1958. In 2009, prices excluding food & fuel climbed 1.8%.


Sales at U.S. retailers rose in Dec for a 6th consecutive month, capping the biggest one-year gain in more than a decade according to the Commerce Dept. Purchases increased 0.6% after rising 0.8% in Nov. Sales climbed 6.7% in 2010, the most since an 8.2% jump in 1999.  The macro economic data is what has been causing many to increase projections recently for the stock market in 2011. 

Consumer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.5% in December; Core Up 0.1%


JPMorgan Chase (JPM), a Dow stock) reported a 47% increase in quarterly earnings, but much of the gain came from dipping into money previously set aside to cover bad loans.  The gradually recovering US economy is allowing JPM to reduce assets on hand for loan losses. Profits & revenue were stronger than expected & the bank made more loans.  However, JPM is still wrestling with the aftermath of the mortgage crisis, it set aside another $1½B to cover legal settlements mainly linked to US home loan foreclosures.  "Hopefully it's going to be a good year," said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, adding that the economy looks better now than it did 12 months ago.  EPS in Q4 was $1.12, up from 74¢ last year & beat expectations of $1.  Fewer bad loans meant the bank could reduce loan-loss reserves for its credit card unit by $2B (30¢ per share).  Revenue rose 6% to $26.7B on a managed basis, which adjusts for an accounting change for off-balance sheet entities (& higher than the $24.4B expected).

In JPMorgan's investment bank, revenue rose 26% to $6.2B. Compensation expense per employee for the full year, a measure of how investment banking bonuses will fare, dropped 2.7% to $370K.  Merger advisory revenue fell 31% from Q4 2009 to $424M, but JPM said this revenue should rise in 2011 because of the large number of deals in the pipeline.  Fixed-income trading revenue, at $2.88B, was 5% higher than in Q4 2009 (but down 8% from the prior qtr). The stock rose $1.18 after doing little following the large sell-off last May. 

JPMorgan Net Rises 47% on Lower Credit Costs, Tops Estimates


JPMorgan   ---   1 year





Intel (INTC), a Dow stock, reported Q4 earnings that topped expectations & gave revenue guidance above previous estimates.  The company forecast Q1 revenue in the range of $11.1-11.9B, with gross margins of 64%, “plus or minus a couple percentage points.”   Spending on R&D & marketing, general & administrative should approximate $3.4B in Q1 fiscal 2011.  For Q4 of FY2010 EPS was 59¢, up from 40¢ in the year.  Revenue rose 8.4% to $11.46B, up from year-ago sales of $10.57B & gross margin was slightly higher than the company’s forecast, rising to 67.5%, up from 64.7%.  "2010 was the best year in Intel's history. We believe that 2011 will be even better," said Paul Otellini, Intel CEO.  Revenue from the PC Client Group, its bread & butter business, remained flat, sequentially, while sales from the Data Center Group rose 15%. Intel Atom microprocessor & chipset revenue also came in mostly flat, sequentially. The stock is down 21¢ & has had a flat stock performance while popular averages have been rising in the last year.  But it offers a 3.4% yield.

Intel 4Q Earnings Top Street; 1Q Revenue View Above Expectationsat Fox Business

Intel   ---   1 year




More earnings, with basically favorable results, but markets are not quite convinced.  Dow is up YTD although it should be doing much better with all the optimism out there.  MLPs continue on their winning ways which could take the yield on the index below 6% next week.  Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), the largest MLP, just increased the quarterly distribution 3 pennies to an annual rate of  $2.36, its 26th consecutive quarterly increase.  This is the kind of news encouraging MLP buyers.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks






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