Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Markets pare losses

Dow was under water all day.  After being down 80, bulls were buying & in the end Dow was down only 3, decliners 5-4 ahead of advancers & NAZ was flat.  Bank stocks also rallied in the PM, paring the loss for the Financial Index.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value219.98One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change  -0.51  (-0.2%)


The MLP index fell a fraction in the 368s & the REIT index was up 2½ to the 228s, both doing little this year.  Junk bond funds generally edged higher.  But Treasuries rallied, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond down 9 basis points to 3.32% (although it has been fairly flat over the last 2 months).

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.15%
U.S. 2-year
0.58%
U.S. 10-year
3.32%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   1 year



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   1 year



10-Year Treasury Yield Index




Oil continued to drop on speculation that US crude supplies rose for a 2nd week as imports increased & refineries operated at the lowest rate since Nov.  Those hedge fund guys keep selling gold (down 100 from its recent peak).

CLH11.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 11...86.28....Down 1.59  (1.8%)

GCF11.CMX...Gold Jan 11........1,331.50 ..Down 13.00 (1.0%)

*** Gold Super Cycle *** Click Here



Home Prices ‘Bouncing Around’ Bottom

Photo:  Bloomberg

Residential real-estate prices dropped in Nov by the most in a year.  The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 1.6% from the prior year, the biggest 12-month decrease in a year.  Mounting foreclosures will probably throw more properties on the market this year, further depressing prices, homeowners’ equity & construction.  The housing market is viewed as being in a state of hibernation because of all the foreclosure problems. 

U.S. Home Prices Fell 1.6% in November, Most in a Year, Case-Shiller Says



3M (MMM), Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, said that profitability suffered in Q4 as higher advertising & research spending ate into its margins & warned that rising raw material costs would pressure its bottom line.  The warnings came as MMM reported Q4 profits that topped expectations & raised its outlook for earnings in 2011.  MMM posted Q4 EPS of $1.28 which compares with $1.30 last year.  Sales rose 9.6% to $6.7B, lifted by especially strong growth in Asia & Latin America.  Analysts had expected EPS of $1.27 on sales of $6.6B.  But Q4 results appeared to disappoint investors wowed by recent blowout earnings from Dow companies  CEO George Buckley also expressed doubts about the strength & sustainability of the US economic recovery.  In a sign of the company's caution, 3M said it plans to hold back discretionary spending to protect its margins in the face of rising raw material costs, higher pension costs & tax rates & a lackluster economic recovery in the US, where a high unemployment rate & chronic weakness in the housing market have soured consumer sentiment. "We will spend cautiously in the early part of this year, to see where things go," Buckley said.  "I don't expect to see big improvements in the U.S. until employment takes a turn for the better."  But  MMM raised its forecast for 2011 EPS to a range of $5.95-$6.20 a share, up from a previous forecast of $5.90-6.10 after earning $5.63 in 2010.  The stock fell $1.82. 

 3M margins under pressure, shares fallat Reuters

MMM   ---   1 Year




The bulls were trying to reassert command in the PM, but they were only partially successful.  Earnings & guidance giving inconclusive results are not what the markets want to hear. Pretty good news was not quite good enough!  Dow remains under the important 12K level.  MLPs continue strong although they've been flattish this year despite favorable earnings reports & the usual distribution increases (qtr over qtr).  Markets are anxious to hear what the pres has to say tonight, probably not much new.  Tomorrow, the press release after the FOMC meeting in the PM should be the major news story.  

Dow Jones Industrials





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