Friday, February 1, 2013

Dow surges past 14,000 for the first time since 2007

Dow went up 146 (taking it over 14K), decliners ahead of advancers 3-1 & NAZ rose 36.  The Financial Index was up 3+ (a very big day) to the 237s, another new high since 2008.  After starting the day lower, the MLP index inched pocket change to the 431s, good enough for a record, & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 278s.  Junk bond funds rose with the bullish stock market & Treasuries were flattish.  Oil capped the longest stretch of weekly advances in more than 8 years after reports showed that US hiring & manufacturing expanded last month.  But gold gained for the 3rd time in 4 days because an improving economy may fuel inflation as the Federal Reserve adds more stimulus.  

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.063%

U.S. 2-year

0.260%

U.S. 10-year

2.013%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13...97.74 ...Up 0.25 (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




ISM Index of U.S. Manufacturing Increased

Photo:   Bloomberg

US manufacturing expanded more than forecast in Jan, reaching a 9-month high & showing the industry is starting to improve. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its manufacturing index climbed to 53.1 last month from 50.2 in Dec. Readings above 50 signal expansion.  The figure exceeded the highest estimate & the median forecast was 50.7.  “While we’re off to a great start” to the year, “we just have to see how things materialize,” Bradley Holcomb, chairman of the ISM factory survey, said.  “We’re not out of the woods yet.”  Today’s report showed the ISM’s production index increased to 53.6 from 52.6 & the new orders measure rose to 53.3, the highest since May, from 49.7.  The employment gauge increased to a 7-month high of 54 from 51.9 in the prior month.  The measure of orders waiting to be filled fell to 47.5 from 48.5 while the inventory index climbed to 51 from 43.  A figure higher than 50 means manufacturers are building stockpiles.

Manufacturing in U.S. Grew More Than Forecast in January


The General Motors logo is seen outside its headquarters at the Renaissance Center in Detroit, Michigan in this file photograph taken August 25, 2009. REUTERS/Jeff Kowalsky/Files

Photo:   Yahoo

Several major automakers, including General Motors Co  (GM) & Toyota (TM), posted better-than-expected US vehicle sales for Jan, kicking off the 4th straight year of the sector's recovery from the depths of recession.  But other automakers fell short of analyst expectations, notably Honda, Nissan & Chrysler.  It is believed that Americans' growing need to replace their aging vehicles served as one of the main drivers behind the sales growth which should help auto sales outpace the broader economy this year.  Industry sales are expected to have jumped by 14% in Jan compared to the same month last year, Kurt McNeil, GM's head of US sales operations said (representing a 50% gain over Jan 2010 levels).  "This says to us that we continue to recover strongly from the recession despite the headwinds of higher taxes and lower government spending," he said.  Pickup trucks in particular outpaced the broader market last month, helped by improvements in the US housing sector & purchases by small businesses, including bakeries, caterers & plumbers  US auto sales in 2012 rose more than 13% to 14.5M cars & trucks, & GM forecast an increase to 15-15.5M for 2013.

Apple Overtakes Samsung With 34% of U.S. Mobile-Phone Market

Photo:   Bloomberg

The launch of iPhone 5 & declining popularity of non-smartphones have made Apple the biggest seller of phones in the US for the first time, according to research firm Strategy Analytics.  The firm estimates that AAPL shipped 17.7M iPhones of all kinds to US buyers in Q4, meaning it accounted for one in 3 new phones.  But Samsung was close behind, shipping 16.8M phones, including non-smart ones.  Samsung has been the largest seller of phones to the US market since 2008.  Worldwide, Samsung is still the biggest phone vendor with 23% of the market, according to another research firm, IDC.  AAPL is #3, with 9.9% of the market.  In between sits Nokia with 17.9M.  Samsung beats AAPL even when only smartphones are considered.  It shipped 63.7M units worldwide versus 47.8M from AAPL.  IPhones are more expensive than most Samsung smartphones. So, they're well within reach for US buyers, but not for buyers in the developing world, where cheaper phones running Android  from Google (GGOG).  AAPL stock fell 2.65 to the 552s. (250 below its record high made when it launched iPhone 5 last year).

Apple Overtakes Samsung by Taking 34% U.S. Mobile-Phone Market

Apple (AAPL)

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The bulls were happy campers today.  Stocks are back in glory as risk averse thoughts have been thrown out the window.  However gold has been ticking up this week & Treasuries did not sell off today, contrarian investments.  Haven't heard much from the politicos in DC about the fiscal mess, but there will be a lot more blah blah in coming weeks.  Jan data will give early signals about how reduced take home pay is affecting US consumers.  Dow closed over 14K & is about 160 away from setting a new record  even though the US Treasury has racked up trillions of new debts since it reached that level in Oct 2007

Dow Jones Industrials

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