Friday, February 15, 2013

Lower markets after indications of weak Feb sales at Wal-Mart

Dow went up 8, decliners ahead of advancers 4-3 & NAZ was down 6.  The Financial Index lost 1 to 239 from its interim highs.  The MLP index fell almost 5 to 430 (a very big daily drop) & the REIT index was up fractionally to 280.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries pulled back.  Oil fell below $96 after disappointing US industrial production data fed concerns about the nation's economic recovery.  Gold slumped below $1600 for the first time since Aug.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.099%

U.S. 2-year

0.264%

U.S. 10-year

2.006%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13....95.48 ...Down 1.83  (1.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

Photo:   Bloomberg

Big Ben said the US economy is far from operating at full strength & reiterated his commitment to record easing.  “With unemployment at almost 8 percent, we are still far from the fully healthy and vibrant conditions that we would like to see,” Bernanke said at the G-20 meeting in Moscow.  “The United States is using domestic policy tools to advance domestic objectives.”  The U.S. central bank has faced criticism from some foreign officials, including Brazilian Finance Minister who in Oct said that its accommodation has weakened the dollar, threatening to fuel a “currency war” of competitive devaluations.  The Federal Reserve (FED) has expanded assets to a record exceeding $3T & pushed down the benchmark interest rate close to zero.  “We believe that by strengthening the U.S. economy we are helping to strengthen the global economy as well,” Bernanke said.  The FED last month affirmed a plan to buy $85B per month in bonds, seeking to foster growth and reduce the unemployment rate.  “The Federal Reserve continues to provide accommodative monetary policy in our effort to foster maximum employment and price stability,” Bernanke said.



VF Corp, a Dividend Aristocrat, net income climbed 30% in Q4 as results strengthened across most of its businesses.  The also gave a 2013 forecast below estimates, but Q4 adjusted EPS topped expectations.  EPS was $2.98.above $2.28 a year earlier.  Excluding expenses related to the acquisition of the Timberland boot & clothing brand, EPS was $3.07. ahead of the $3.03 forecast.  Revenue increased 4% to $3.03B from $2.91B, buoyed by strong performances from its outdoor & action sports & sportswear segments as well as better results overseas& in its direct-to-consumer business.  The foerecast called for revenue of $3.09B.  Profitability improved as the company continued to shift toward higher-margin businesses & lower product costs.  VFC said that its full-year EPS improved to $9.70 from  $7.98 in the prior year.  Adjusted EPS was $9.63 per share.  Annual revenue rose 15% to $10.88B from $9.46B.  VFC predicts 2013 EPS of $10.70 per share & revenue is expected to climb about 6% to $11.5B.  Analysts forecast EPS of $10.95 on revenue of $11.85.  The stock jumped 4.95.

VF 4Q adj. profit tops Wall Street's expectationsAP

VF Corp (VFC)

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Wal-Mart Executives Sweat Slow February Sales Start in E-Mails

Photo:   Bloomberg

Wal-Mart, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, had the worst sales start to a month in 7 years as payroll-tax increases hit shoppers already battling a slow economy, according to internal e-mails obtained by Bloomberg News.  “In case you haven’t seen a sales report these days, February MTD sales are a total disaster,” Jerry Murray, WMT VP of finance & logistics, said in a Feb 12 e-mail.  “The worst start to a month I have seen in my ~7 years with the company.”  The company is bracing for a rise in the payroll tax to take a bigger bite from the paychecks of shoppers already dealing with elevated unemployment.  Its struggles come after execs expected a strong start to Feb because of the Super Bowl, milder weather & paycheck cycles.  Murray’s comments about Feb sales follow disappointing results from Jan, a month that the company was relieved to see end.  This is an ominous sign for the rest of the US economy.  The stock plunged 1.52 & is down $9 from its recent highs. 

Wal-Mart Executives Sweat Slow February Start in E-Mailsat Bloomberg

Wal-Mart (WMT)

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Stocks continue in their sideways trading range.  The bulls are keeping the averages near record highs, but the economic fundamentals behind that optimism are not there.  That is a major disconnect & the word from WMT that sales in Feb got off to a bad start could put pressure on stocks next week.  This will be a long weekend which will give traders a chance to see how foreign markets react to this & news coming from the G-20.  Tues could be an interesting day.

Dow Jones Industrials

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1 comment:

Jay Jay said...

I think that the Wal-Mart news is a sign that all is not well. I think this will bleed over into the housing sector too as they have been high flying. Time will tell. Stay well my friend.