Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Higher markets on favorable earnings

Dow rose 99 (with modest selling into the close), advancers ahead of decliners 5-2 & NAZ was up 40.  The Financial Index rose 2+ to 237, pretty much matching its post recession high.  The MLP slid 3½ to the 426s & the REIT index was off pocket change in the 277s.  Junk bond funds were higher while Treasuries lost ground.  Oil gained fractionally (nearing $100) while gold was a little lower, staying in its longer term sideways range near 1660.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.063%

U.S. 2-year

0.264%

U.S. 10-year

2.013%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13...96.67 ...Up 0.50 (0.5%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The € gained against the dollar on speculation that ECB policy makers aren’t concerned a stronger currency will slow the economic recovery.  The currency advanced versus the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as the ECB’s balance sheet shrank to the smallest in almost a year on early loan repayments by euro- area banks even as French President Hollande warned that a rising currency may deepen the recession.  The € strengthened 0.5% to almost $1.36, sill below its 5-year average of $1.37+.  The € extended gains after Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said the currency’s level doesn’t concern him & its strength follows the economic reality of the euro zone.  “This reflects the fundamental data of the European economy and I highlight that a year ago we thought that the euro was incredibly weak,” Frieden said.  These comments contrast with the tone of France's Hollande, who earlier said that the euro area has to use the currency as an export-promoting tool just like the US & China.  “We can’t let the euro fluctuate according to the mood of the market,” he said.  Differences will be ironed out at the ECB  meeting later this week.

Euro Extends Gains Amid Bets ECB Won’t Weaken Currency


<p>               President Barack Obama gestures as speaks in the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2013. The president will ask Congress to come up with tens of billions of dollars in short-term spending cuts and tax revenue to put off the automatic across the board cuts that are scheduled to kick in March 1. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

Photo:   Yahoo

President Obama is asking Congress for a short-term deficit reduction package of spending cuts & tax revenue that will delay the effective date of steeper automatic cuts now scheduled to kick in on Mar 1.  He said the looming cuts would be economically damaging & must be avoided & reiterated his insistence on long-term deficit reduction that combines taxes with cuts, a blend that faces stiff resistance from anti-tax Reps.  Obama made his case just after the Congressional Budget Office released revised budget projections that showed the deficit will drop to $845B this year, the first time during Obama's presidency that the red ink would fall below $1T.  The budget office also said the economy will grow slowly in 2013, hindered by a tax increase enacted in Jan & by the automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect this spring.  It is those cuts that Obama is seeking to put off with less onerous measures.  "There's no reason that the jobs of thousands of American who work in national security or education or clean energy, not to mention the growth of the entire economy, should be put in jeopardy just because folks in Washington couldn't come together to eliminate a few special interest tax loopholes or government programs that we agree need some reform," he said.  Obama said Congress needs more time to work out a 10-year plan worth more than $1T in deficit reduction but did not place a time span or a dollar amount on the short-term plan.  His request comes as some congressional Reps were signaling that they might allow the automatic cuts to kick in as the only viable means of achieving deficit reduction, even though it cut into programs they support, such as defense.  The president's request would continue what has become a common practice in DC, dealing with fiscal issues in small steps in hopes that over time Congress & the administration are able to agree on broader & more lasting policies.  Stay tuned, the budget debate is FAR from over.

Obama Urges Congress to Delay Automatic Spending Cuts


Hasbro is expected to show muted spending for toys during the critical holiday selling period when it reports Q4 results after the market close on Thurs.  It said on Jan 25 that Q4 revenue failed to meet expectations because of weaker-than-expected demand over the holidays.  It plans to cut about 10% of its workforce & consolidate facilities to reduce expenses.  While HAS said consumer demand was softer than it expected over the holidays, the season was expected to be tough, partly because retailers were ordering inventory more cautiously.  CEO Brian Goldner said that HAS created a plan to deliver $100M in annual cost savings by 2015.  HAS also said it anticipates Q4 revenue of about $1.28B, below revenue of $1.4B predicted by analysts.  Unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates lowered results by $8M.  For 2012, Hasbro expects adjusted EPS of $2.89-$2.91 on revenue of approximately $4.09B.  Unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates lowered revenue by $99M.  The stock rose 46¢ in a strong market.

Hasbro's 4Q results to show tough holiday AP

Hasbro (HAS)

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Stocks had a pretty good day, recovering lost ground on Mon.  But there was nothing dramatic going on.  The euro zone is improving, although financial problems are not going away anytime soon.  Today there was mention of the federal spending cuts which will kick in at the start of next month.  That will be a significant kick in the head for an economy that is not doing as well as the markets think.  Dow is near 14K & bulls have their eyes on reaching a new record high, only 200 away.  The chart below for the Dow is amazingly bullish.

Dow Jones Industrials

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