Thursday, February 7, 2013

Lower markets after Draghi comments on the rising euro

Dow fell 95, decliners ahead of advancers 5-2 & NAZ was off 24. The Financial Index dropped 1+ to the 235s, still near its multi years high. The MLP index fell 1+ to the 422s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 276s.   Junk bond funds were lower & Treasuries rose as stocks fell.  Oil slipped a fraction while gold inched up a fraction. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.068%

U.S. 2-year

0.244%

U.S. 10-year

1.948%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13...97.09 .....Up 0.47 (0.5%)

GCG13.CMX...Gold Feb 13......1,666.20 ...Down 11.50  (0.7%)










A job seeker (R) meets with a prospective employer at a career fair in New York City, October 24, 2012. REUTERS/Mike Segar

Photo:   Yahoo

The number filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week & a trend reading hit a near 5-year low.   Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped 5K to 366K according to the Labor Dept, a higher level than what was expected.  However the downward trend in layoffs still suggests the economy is strong enough that employers will need to add to their staffs.  Claims have trended lower in recent weeks & are around their lowest levels since the early days of the 2007-09 recession.  The 4-week moving average for new claims dropped 2K to 350K, the lowest level in almost 5 years. However, while employers have pulled back on layoffs, they have only been adding jobs at a lackluster pace since the end of the recession.  The number still receiving benefits under regular state programs increased 8K to 3.22M.  Claims were volatile in Jan due to the timing of holidays & the dates on which weeks ended.



ECB President Mario Draghi

Photo:   Bloomberg

Mario Draghi signaled policy makers are concerned that the advance of the € could dampen inflation & hamper an economic recovery.  The exchange rate is not a policy target, but it's important for growth & price stability,” Draghi said after the ECB kept its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75%.  “We want to see if the appreciation is sustained, and if it alters our assessment of the risks to price stability.”  The latest data shows the euro economy is starting to stabilize after the euro debt crisis drove it into recession last year  But € gains could hurt exports & stymie recovery before it has begun.  Draghi stressed that ECB policy remains accommodative, & said low rates should help to fuel growth later this year.  Still, risks to the economic outlook remain on the downside, he said.  The € fell as Draghi spoke, dropping more than half a penny to below $1.35 after reaching a 14-month high against the dollar this month & a 3-year high against the ¥.  It has climbed 11% on a trade-weighted basis since Draghi pledged on Jul 26 to do whatever is needed to preserve Europe’s monetary union, a comment that helped end the turmoil raging through the region’s bond markets.

Draghi Signals Euro Strength May Damp ECB Inflation Outlook


The headquarters of the New York Times is pictured on 8th Avenue in New York in this April 30, 2008, file photo. The New York Times Co on February 7, 2013, reported higher quarterly revenue as more people paid for its digital newspapers. REUTERS/Gary Hershorn/Files

Photo:  Yahoo

The New York Times reported higher quarterly revenue as more people paid for its digital newspapers.  Circulation revenue jumped 16.1%, mainly because of growth in digital subscriptions.  Paid digital subscribers to the Times & The International Herald Tribune totaled 640K at the end of Q4, an increase of 13% from Q3.  The company is reaping the benefits of charging readers to pay for its digital newspapers, a program it introduced almost 2 years ago.  Still, there were some troubling signs in Q4, which included an extra week.  Advertising revenue was down 3%.  Stripping out the additional week, ad revenue tumbled 8.3% on declines in both print & digital.  Circulation revenue for full-year 2012 represented about 48% of total revenue, compared with 45% for advertising revenue.  Q4 revenue totaled $575.8M, a 5.2% rise from a earlier, above the $570M forecast.  EPS was 76¢, compared with 34¢ a year earlier.  Adjusted for special items including severance costs, the company reported EPS of 32¢, ahead of the 31¢ estimate.  The stock jumped $1.04 (13%).

New York Times Beats Profit Estimates on Slower Ad Declines

New York Times (NYT)

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Stocks are easing back after the long run for the averages.  Dow is having a tough time cracking 14K, maybe it's just temporary after recent gains.  But everything is not just fine in Europe & the debt debate in the US is getting nowhere fast.  There are more reasons for the decline than a tired market that is overbought.

Dow Jones Industrials

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