Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Markets rise guardedly after the president's speech

Dow fell 31, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ was up 14.  The Financial Index was up pennies to 240.  The MLP index shot up another 1+ to 431 & the REIT index was flat in the 281s.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries pulled back, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury to 9 month high.  Oil climbed to the highest level in more than a week after the American Petroleum Institute said US crude inventories declined for the first time this year.  Gold slipped modestly.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.089%

U.S. 2-year

0.276%

U.S. 10-year

2.018%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13....97.92....Up 0.41 (0.4%)

GCG13.CMX...Gold Feb 13......1,650.00 ...Up 1.30 (0.1%)








A man walks past a shop while carrying a shopping bag in New York, December 26, 2012. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

Photo:   Yahoo

Retail sales barely rose in Jan as tax increases & higher gasoline prices restrained spending, suggesting the economy got little help from the consumer at the start of the year.  The Commerce Dept said retail sales edged up 0.1% after an unrevised 0.5% rise in Dec.  The modest gain, which was in line with expectations, as households responded to the expiration of a 2% payroll tax cut last month.  Taxes also went up for wealthy Americans.  Core sales, which strip out automobiles, gasoline & building materials & correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP, also ticked up 0.1% after gaining 0.7% in Dec.  Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the economy & grew at a 2.2% annual rate in Q4.  With households facing smaller paychecks & higher gasoline prices, the pace of growth in spending is expected to slow.  Gasoline prices have increased 30¢ this year.  Retail sales were mixed last month, with receipts at auto dealers slipping 0.1% after rising 1.2% in Dec.  Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.2% last month after advancing 0.3% in Dec.  Sales at building materials & garden equipment suppliers rose 0.3%, reflecting gains in homebuilding as the housing market recovery.  Receipts at clothing stores fell 0.3%.  Sales at restaurants & bars were flat, while receipts at sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores rose 0.6%.  Sales of electronics & appliances gained 0.2%, while receipts at furniture stores fell 0.2%.

Retail Sales in U.S. Increase at Slower Pace as Taxes Take Bite


Apple introduced more affordable versions of the MacBook with faster processors as the company woos price-conscious consumers amid slumping sales in the PC market.  A 13" MacBook Pro with a high-resolution retina display & 128GB of flash storage went on sale in the Apple Online Store for $1,499.  A model with a 2.6GB processor & 256 gigabytes of flash will cost $1,699, the same price announced in Oct for a slower computer with half the storage.  Worldwide PC shipments declined 3.2% last year as consumers & retailers shifted to tablets & smartphones after a 1.7% gain in 2011.  The latest MacBook lineup is part of a push to make products thinner & smaller without sacrificing performance.  The stock rose 1 to the 469s.

Apple Debuts Faster, Cheaper MacBooks Amid PC Slump

Apple (AAPL)

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<p>               FILE - This May 16, 2011 file photo shows the John Deere logo on the front of a riding lawn mower on display at a Home Depot in North Fayette Township, Pa. John Deere reports its fourth quarter earnings for 2012 on Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2013. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)

Photo:   Yahoo

Deere said Q1 net income leaped 22% on growing sales of farm machinery at higher prices, soundly beating expectations.  EPS was $1.65, compared with $1.30 a year earlier.  Revenue rose almost 10% to $7.42B.   Expectations were for EPS of $1.39 on revenue of $6.7B.  The company is executing its marketing plans, expanding its global presence & keeping a tight grip on costs, CEO Samuel Allen said.  It predicted that sales would rise about 4% in Q2 & 6% for the full year.  2013 net income is guided at about $3.3B, slightly more than its earlier forecasts & the predictions of analysts.  But Allen cautioned that although DE sees strong future results on growing need for food, shelter & infrastructure, "the near-term outlook is being tempered by uncertainties over fiscal, economic and trade issues that are undermining business confidence and restraining growth."  The company said, "Relatively high commodity prices and strong farm incomes are expected to continue supporting a favorable level of demand for farm machinery during the year."  It also predicted that European agricultural & turf sales would fall 5% due to economic weakness & a poor harvest last year in the UK.  But South American agricultural sales are expected to rise 10-15% on strong conditions in Brazil.  Asian sales are projected to be only slightly higher than last year.  After gaining in early trading, the stock fell 1.91.

Deere Raises Forecast After Crop Prices Boost Farm Income

Deere (DE)

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Stocks rose cautiously after the pres's speech.  Raising the minimum wage plays well to the masses but may not be helpful for an economic recovery that is struggling.  One thing is all but certain, federal budget cuts will kick in on Mar 1.  Forget about compromise!  Less spending will worsen the unemployment situation & pinch the economy.  Dow did not join in the rise, largely because of declines at Coca-Coa (KO) & Cisco (CSCO).  The Dow chart looks strong, but economic fundamentals behind are not.

Dow Jones Industrials

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