Thursday, February 7, 2013

Markets pare losses in afternoon trading

Dow fell 42, decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ slipped 3.  The Financial Index fell 1 to the 236s.  The MLP index slipped 1 to the 423s & the REIT index was off 1 to 277.  Junk bond funds sold off & Treasuries were flattish to higher.  Oil fell below 96 & gold also pulled back.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart








Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.068%

U.S. 2-year

0.252%

U.S. 10-year

1.965%

CLH13.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 13....95.75 ...Down 0.87  (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




US consumer borrowing rose in Dec for a 5th straight month as non-revolving credit surged by the most in 11 years.  The $14.6B gain followed a revised $15.9B advance in Nov according to the Federal Reserve   Non-revolving debt, such as financing for college tuition & auto purchases, jumped $18.2B, while credit-card borrowing fell.  Rising home values & job creation are boosting the ability & willingness of households to borrow, laying the foundation for an acceleration in consumer spending that makes up 70% of the US economy.  Cheaper financing is supporting purchases of big-ticket items such as new cars.  The increase in non-revolving credit, which followed a $15.3B advance in the prior month, was the biggest since Nov 2001, when automakers lured buyers back to showrooms with zero-percent financing the Sep 11 terrorist attacks.  Lending by the federal gov, mainly for educational loans, increased $5.5B.

Consumer Credit in U.S. Rises on Surge in Non-Revolving Debt


EU leaders drew hard lines ahead of a struggle over EU spending for the next 7 years that reflects deep divisions about the role of their union.  On one side, newer & generally poorer members, see Europe as a club that is only as strong as its weakest member.  Led by Poland, they argue that Europe means nothing if the budget isn't used to bridge the wealth gap & help restart growth.  On the other side, countries led by Britain are insisting that the EU has to make the same drastic cuts that member nations themselves are making in their own budgets as they weather the continent's economic & debt crises.  They want tens of €Bs slashed off the €1.03T ($1.35T) originally asked for by the European Commission, EU's executive arm.  Both sides are threatening to walk away from the table again if they don't get what they want.  The first summit to negotiate a budget collapsed in Nov.  But Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker warned that failure to reach an agreement at this meeting would "not send a good signal" as the union struggles to win back the trust lost during its economic crisis.  The 27-country EU, with a population of more than 500M & an annual GDP of €12T, is the largest economy in the world.  The EU budget, separate from national budgets, is designed in part to balance out the economic development of the region by injecting funding into poorer countries.  The EU has funded hundreds of thousands of infrastructure & capital projects over the years, from the installation of a broadband network to upgrading parts of the road network.

EU leaders brace for tough fight at budget summit AP


Americans shopped the winter clearance racks in Jan, resulting in strong sales for retailers.  But spending is expected to slow as the deals dry up heading into the spring, & Americans digest rising gas prices & a 2% payroll tax hike that started in Jan.  Overall, 20 retailers reported that revenue at stores opened at least a year rose an average of 5.1% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.  That's above the group's 3% estimate & the 4.5% increase posted in Dec.  It also marks the highest reading since last Aug when the figure was up 6%.  Only a small group of stores that represent about 13 % of the $2.4T retail industry report monthly revenue.  But the data offers a snapshot of consumer spending, which has been heavily influenced by big discounts during the economic downturn.

Retailers report strong January sales AP

Stocks recovered some of the early losses.  Mario Draghi's comments about the rising € brought on that selling but buyers were not deterred.  MLPs are having a tough Feb (the index is down 9 from the peak) after soaring over 50 in Jan.  The pres is talking to the Dems in DC, telling to stand firm on budget cuts.  For the time being, the 2 sides are deeply divided about spending cuts which begin in only 3 weeks & could be major setback for the economic recovery.  Dow is taking this all in stride although it has stumbled trying to get over 14K which will lead to a new record.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart







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