Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Higher markets on consumer confidence data

Dow shot up 90, advancers over declines 3-1 & NAZ climbed 14.  The MLP index rose 2+ to 460 & the REIT index went up 2+ to about 271.  Junk bond funds went up & Treasuries retreated as stocks rose.  Oil had a good day while gold largely traded sideways.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.34%

U.S. 10-year

2.75%

CLH14.NYM....Crude Oil Mar 14....97.41 Up ...1.69 (1.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Confidence among US consumers unexpectedly climbed to a 5 month high in Jan as optimism about the economy & labor market improved.  The Conference Board’s index advanced to 80.7 from a revised 77.5 in Dec (weaker than initially estimated).  The forecast called for a reading of 78.  More Americans than at any time since Aug 2008 said jobs were currently plentiful & the share of those viewing business conditions as good was the highest in more than 6 years.  Bigger employment gains that lead to more wage growth will help provide a further push for sentiment & drive the consumer purchases that account for almost 70% of the economy.  The Conference Board’s present conditions barometer increased to 79.1, the highest since Apr 2008, from 75.3 & consumers’ assessments of current labor-market conditions improved.  The share of respondents who said jobs were hard to get eased this month to 32.6% from 32.9%.  The difference between those who said jobs were hard to get & respondents who said employment opportunities were plentiful was the smallest since Sep 2008 (when Lehman collapsed).  The Conference Board’s measure of consumer expectations for the next 6 months rose to a 4 month high of 81.8 from 79 a month before.  The share of consumers who expected their incomes to increase climbed to 15.8% from 13.9%.  At the same time, the proportion of Americans who said jobs would become more plentiful in the next 6 months declined.

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Climbs to a Five-Month High


Verizon, a Dow stock, cleared a final hurdle in its push to gain full control of its wireless joint venture with Vodafone after investors from both companies approved the $130B deal.  Following today’s vote, VZ plans to issue 1.28B shares to shareholders of Vodafone & expects to complete the takeover of Verizon Wireless on Feb 21.  The company still needs approval from the High Court of Justice of England & Wales.  The move will wind down a 14-year joint venture that grew into the biggest & most profitable wireless carrier in the US.  “Acquiring Vodafone’s stake in Verizon Wireless will provide Verizon with greater financial flexibility to invest in new technologies and address evolving customer demands,” CEO Lowell McAdam said.  The payout will be about $84B in shares & cash.  About $60B of the distribution will come in the form of VZ shares.  To help fund the purchase, VZ sold $49B in bonds, the biggest company debt offering ever.  VZ fell 33¢.
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Verizon, Vodafone Shareholders Approve Their $130 Billion Wireless Deal

Verizon (VZ)


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Apples's roster of devices is hitting a sales ceiling, underscoring why it’s crucial for CEO Tim Cook to deliver the company’s first new products since 2010 to revive growth.  AAPL shares dropped after it reported iPhone sales for the holiday season missed expectations, in what is typically the most lucrative period of the year.  The company also projected revenue in the current period may fall from a year earlier, in what would be the first quarterly sales decline since 2003.  The figures indicate that demand may be ebbing for AAPL devices as competitors flood in with their own smartphones & tablets.  Cook said sales in North America were weaker than the company expected, partly because the less-expensive iPhone 5c released last year wasn’t as popular as the higher-end iPhone 5s.  Stagnating growth is adding pressure for the company to release new hit products.  For its fiscal Q1, it sold a record 51M iPhones, but missed the estimates of 54.7M handsets.  Even after releasing the iPhone thru the world’s largest carrier, China Mobile this month, AAPL said revenue will be $42-$44B in Q1, compared with the estimate of $46.1B.  Anything short of $43.6B would amount to a sales decline from a year earlier.  But quarterly profit & revenue still beat projections.  EPS was $14.50, up from $13.81, a year earlier & sales rose 5.7% to $57.6B.  Analysts had predicted EPS of $14.07 on sales of $57.5B.  Cook said the company is growing in emerging markets & that new products are coming.  In addition to an iPhone with a bigger screen, the company has been exploring the release of a wearable-computing device & an expanded mobile-payments system.  While Cook didn’t specify what’s in the pipeline, he said he’s “intrigued” by letting people pay for products with iPhones.  “We have zero issue coming up with things we want to do that we can disrupt in a major way,” Cook said.  “The challenge is always to focus on the very few that deserve all of our energy.”   The stock plunged $44.
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Apple Lineup Reaching Sales Ceiling Puts Pressure on Cook

Apple (AAPL)


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After dropping almost 650 in 5 straight losing days, Dow recovered some of that decline today.  That's called buying on the dip, nothing more.  Dow remains down sharply in Jan.  Tomorrow Big Ben speaks & the markets will be listening.  Another $10B reduction in the bond buying program is baked into the market, helping give cover to Janet Yellen assuming she continues reducing these purchases.  The announcement by the FOMC will probably be the main driver for the market over the rest of the week.

Dow Jones Industrials

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