Thursday, January 23, 2014

Markets tumble on China worries and US earnings

Dow dropped 174, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ was off 41.  The MLP index was fractionally higher in the 464s as it nears last year's record & the REIT index slipped a fraction to 274.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries rallied.  Oil gained & gold went higher in response to the stock market decline.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.37%

U.S. 10-year

2.80%

CLH14.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 14...97.16 Up .....0.43 (0.4%)

GCF14.CMX...Gold Jan 14.......1,254.60 Up ...15.60 (1.3%)









Applications for unemployment benefits held near a 6 week low, showing layoffs remain muted following the holidays.  Jobless claims rose 1K to 326K, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast projected 330K.  Applications for one state & DC were estimated.  Rising optimism about the growth outlook in the economy is buoying business & consumer spending & keeping dismissals subdued.  Further hiring gains & a pickup in wages following a smaller-than-projected gain in Dec payrolls that some blamed on bad weather would help households sustain demand in Q1.  The 4 week average of claims declined to 331K from 335K in the prior week.  Over the comparable survey week in Dec, the average was 343K.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits rose by 34K to 3.06M in the latest week, the most since Jul.  Today’s report was the first to show that about 1.35M unemployed lost emergency extended benefits after Congress allowed the program to expire at the end of 2013.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Hover Near Lowest in Over a Month


China's manufacturing may contract for the first time in 6 months, adding to stresses in the economy, according to a gauge released by HSBC Holdings & Markit Economics.  The preliminary reading of 49.6 for Jan in a Purchasing Managers’ Index was below a final figure of 50.5 in Dec & all 19 estimates.  A number above 50 indicates expansion.   However one analyst cautioned that figures may have been distorted by workers’ holidays ahead of the Lunar New Year.  A manufacturing slowdown would add to strains that include elevated interest rates & the risk of defaults on high-yield investments.  Signs in the PMI of a contraction don’t indicate that manufacturing is shrinking on an annual basis.  Factory output rose 9.7% in Dec from a year earlier, compared with a 10% pace in Nov.  Industrial & Commercial Bank of China & China Credit Trus may together with the gov bail out investors in a troubled trust that sparked concern of defaults on high-yield investment products.  ICBC & China Credit Trust may each take responsibility for 25% of payments for the 3B yuan ($496M) trust.  The manufacturing report gives one of the first indications of the economy’s performance in 2014 after data earlier this week showed gains in factory output eased last month, sapping momentum as a credit clampdown adds pressure on the outlook.  Economic growth slowed to 7.7% in Q4 from 7.8% in Q3, according to the latest figures from the statistics bureau.  This year’s target for growth is yet to be announced, after a goal of 7.5% expansion in 2013.

China Manufacturing Index Signals Surprise Contraction


Lockheed Martin, the gov’s biggest contractor, Q4 profit plunged 14% as federal budget cuts sapped sales & led to a goodwill writedown & a job-reduction charge.  EPS from continuing operations fell to $1.50, down from $1.73 a year earlier.  EPS adjusted for one-time charges were $2.38, beating the $2.11 estimate.  Sales declined 4.7% to $11.5B, with decreases across all 5 units including aeronautics, which suffered from fewer deliveries of C-130 cargo aircraft.  CFO Bruce Tanner said he hoped this year would be “a trough” in US defense spending, with future budgets increasing.  “We’re hopeful 2014 is the bottoming out,” he said.  Contributing to the drop in Q1 were special charges including $171M for workforce reductions & a $195M goodwill writedown tied to part of the missiles & fire-control unit affected by defense budget reductions & “related competitive pressures.”  Net income from continuing operations also included $120M in pension expenses, compared with $208M last year.  In Nov, the company announced it would eliminate 4K jobs & close some operations in response to slow spending by US agencies.  LMT bought back 1.7M shares for $229M & paid $428M in divs, compared with $373M during the same period a year earlier.  The company estimated 2014 EPS from continuing operations will be $10.25-$10.55 on sales of $44-$45.5B.  The estimate was $10.29 on sales of $44.2B. “We will continue our focus on improving operational efficiency, reducing our cost structure, investing in innovations to address our customers’ future challenges and returning value to our shareholders,”  CEO Marillyn Hewson said.  The company had a backlog of $82.6B at year end, Hewson said which compares with $78.7B at the end of Q3.  “That shows support for our portfolio,” Hewson said.  The stock dropped 2.19.

Lockheed Fourth-Quarter Profit Falls 14% Amid U.S. Cuts

Lockheed Martin (LMT)


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Stocks are having another bad day which has become routine in Jan.  The slow down in China does not get enough attention.  But its economy is huge & if it runs into headwinds, that will be felt around the world.   Meanwhile earnings continue to come in on the sluggish side with lower revenue a common theme.  Dow is down a almost 400 in Jan, not good for the bulls.  At least the yield sensitive securities are behaving well.

Dow Jones Industrials

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