Friday, January 10, 2014

Markets drift lower on slow jobs growth

Dow fell 40, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 1.  The MLP index slipped a fraction to the 473s & the REIT index climbed 2+ to 270.  Junk bond funds were steady to higher & Treasuries rallied.  Oil rose from an 8 month low as a worse-than-expected jobs report reduced concern that the Federal Reserve (FED) will further pare bond-buying. That thinking brought in buyers for gold.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.38%

U.S. 10-year

2.89%

CLG14.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 14...92.66 Up .....1.00 (1.1%)

GCF14.CMX...Gold Jan 14.......1,246.80 Up ...17.50 (1.4%)









Payrolls Rise Less Than Forecast; U.S. Jobless Rate at 6.7%
Photo:   Bloomberg

Payrolls increased in Dec at the slowest pace in almost 3 years, indicating a pause in the recent strength of the US labor market that may partly reflect the effects of bad weather.  The 74K gain, less than the most pessimistic projection, followed a revised 241K advance the prior month, according to the Labor Dept. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%, the lowest since Oct 2008, as more people left the labor force.  The unemployment rate for Dec was forecast to hold at 7% after.the jobless rate averaged 7.4% in 2013 (the lowest in 5 years).  The household survey showed more people were leaving the labor force as the participation rate decreased to 62.8%, matching Oct as the lowest since 1978.  The decline in the jobless rate poses a communications challenge for the FED, which has pledged to hold the main interest rate near zero “well past” the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6.5%.  Poor weather may have played a role in depressing payrolls, especially in industries such as construction.  The data showed 273K weren’t at work because of weather during the survey week, which last month included Dec 5, the most for any Dec since 1977.  Last month was the coldest Dec since 2009.  Bad weather can affect the payroll count if employees didn’t receive compensation for any part of the pay period that included the 12th of month. 



China's imports rose the most in 5 months in Dec, indicating that domestic demand will support economic growth, as the gov claimed the title of the world’s biggest trader of goods.  Inbound shipments advanced 8.3% from a year earlier, the customs administration said.  Exports rose 4.3%, a pace that may be distorted by fake invoices. The trade surplus was $25.6B.  Improving demand will help support expansion amid risks from rising domestic debt & the impact of President Xi Jinping’s broadest policy reforms since the 1990s.  While China said today it passed the US to become the top trading nation in 2013, the gov highlighted challenges for exporters including gains in the yuan & increased labor costs.  For the full year, exports increased 7.9% to $2.2T & imports rose 7.3% to $1.95T.  US trade totaled $3.53T thru Nov 2013, according to US gov figures.  Dec trade figures would need to be more than double a year earlier to catch China’s full-year total.

China Imports Rise to Help Nation Claim World Trade Crown


Tiffany reported a 4% increase in holiday sales & reiterated its full-year earnings forecast, driven by demand in the US & Asia.  Global sales in Nov & Dec rose to $1.03%.  Last year it also had a 4% gain.  CEO Michael Kowalski said growth came in its fine & statement, engagement & fashion jewelry categories during the holiday period.  Sales in the Americas region rose 6% to $550M compared with an increase of 3% a year earlier.  Sales at stores open at least a year increased 6%.  EPS for the year ending Jan 31 will be as much as $3.75. which compares with the analyst projection of $3.79.  In Asia Pacific, sales increased 5% compared with a 13% advance a year earlier.  European sales climbed 11%, compared with a gain of 2% a year earlier.  The stock dropped 1.10. after a good run last year

Tiffany Holiday Sales Advance 4% Amid Demand in Asia, U.S.

Tiffany (TIF)

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Despite a gloomier than expected jobs report, little was accomplished in trading today.  The general feeling is that employment data will bring on another reduction in the bond buying program by the FED.  While nobody knows, not even FED officials, this will be the year for the FED to wind down its bond buying.  Next week brings the first earnings reports, highlighted by the big banks.

Dow Jones Industrials

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