Monday, January 6, 2014

Markets slide lower after ISM service industry data

Dow dropped 55, decliners ove advancers 5-4 & NAZ fell 15.  The MLP index slipped a fraction in the 457s & the REIT index was off a fraction in the 266s.  Junk bond funds sold off & Treasuries saw buying.  Oil & gold hardly budged.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.39%

U.S. 10-year

2.96%

CLG14.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 14...94.09 Up ...0.13 (0.1%)

GCF14.CMX...Gold Jan 14......1,239.90 Up ...1.50 (0.1%)








Shopping in New York
 Photo:   Bloomberg
 
Service industries in the US expanded at a slower pace than forecast in Dec as orders contracted for the first time since 2009, showing uneven progress in the economy.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index decreased to a 6-month low of 53 in Dec from 53.9 in the prior month.  The projection was for 54.7.  Readings above 50 indicate growth in the industries that make up almost 90% of the economy.  Orders shrank in 11 industries, including real estate, as higher interest rates threatened to slow the pace of home buying that’s been a source of strength for the economy.  At the same time, manufacturing expanded last month at the 2nd-fastest rate since 2011, job gains are sustaining household spending & companies have some clarity from DC after a budget compromise was reached.  Orders placed with manufacturers increased 1.8% in Nov after a 0.5% decline a month earlier that was smaller than initially reported, according to the Commerce Dept.  The ISM’s measure of new orders in the service industries decreased to 49.4 last month, the lowest since May 2009, from 56.4 in Nov.  Among industries other than real estate reporting declining demand were mining, transportation & warehousing, food services & entertainment & recreation.  6 industries reported growth in orders, including retail trade, construction & finance.


  • In this Thursday, Oct. 10, 2013, photo, Dale Watkins Jr., President of Sheffield Platers Inc., talks with employee Eva Gasca, at his factory in San Diego. The Commerce Department reports on orders placed with U.S. factories in November 2013 on Jan. 6, 2014. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)
Photo:  Yahoo

Factories orders in the US climbed in Nov, led by a surge in aircraft demand.  And businesses stepped up spending on machinery, computers & other long-lasting goods.  Factory orders rose 1.8% in Nov, according to the Commerce Dept.  That follows a 0.5% decrease in Oct.  Orders received by manufacturers totaled a seasonally adjusted $497.8B in Nov, the highest on records dating to 1992.  Orders have increased 2.5% over the past 12 months.  The improvements could signal accelerating growth in 2014. Americans are buying more cars & homes, increasing demand for steel, furniture & other goods.  That has led factories to hire more workers, generating additional economic momentum.  Still, overall economic growth remains modest by historical standards.  And though factory orders have strengthened in recent months, their growth rate has slowed during the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.  A 21.8% jump in volatile aircraft orders drove the Nov gains.  But orders rose in many other categories, a sign of strength at factories & confidence among companies.  Core capital goods, a proxy for business investment, rose 1%.  This is watched because it excludes volatile orders for aircraft & defense equipment.  Demand also rose for construction machinery, computers, communications equipment, furniture and motor vehicle parts.  Most of the gains occurred in long-lasting goods, which increased 3.4% in Nov.  Orders for nondurable goods such as food products, clothing & paper rose a modest 0.3%.  Separate economic reports indicate that manufacturing has remained strong.  Factory activity in Dec remained near a 2½ year high, according to the ISM. 

US factory orders up on planes, business spending Associated Press


Stocks are getting off to a slow start in 2014.  Data from the ISM on service industries could have brought out buyers, but not today.  The nomination for Janet Yellen should be approved after the groundwork has been put in place for a continuation of tapering.  While stocks are just lumbering around today, Treasuries were higher, basically negative bets on the economy.  The big Dec jobs report is coming on Fri.  There will be other reports in the meantime giving more clues about the economy & where it is heading in 2014.

Dow Jones Industrials

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