Monday, March 31, 2014

S&P closes at a record on Janet Yellen's comments

Dow climber 134 (but not good enough for a new record), advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ recovered 43.  The MLP index rose 2+ to the 465s (close to a record) & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 285s.  Junk bond funds gained & Treasuries were quiet.  Oil pulled back & gold saw selling in the PM.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)








Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.43%

U.S. 10-year

2.72%

CLK14.NYM....Crude Oil May 14....101.57 Down ...0.10  (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Yellen Says Economy Needs Extraordinary Support for ‘Some Time’
Photo:   Bloomberg

Federal Reserve (FED) Chair Janet Yellen, easing investor concern that interest rates may rise earlier than previously forecast, said the world’s biggest economy will need FED stimulus for “some time.”  Yellen said the FED hasn’t done enough to combat unemployment even after holding interest rates near zero for more than 5 years & pumping up its balance sheet to $4.2T with bond purchases.  “This extraordinary commitment is still needed and will be for some time, and I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policy makers,” Yellen said in Chicago.  “The scars from the Great Recession remain, and reaching our goals will take time.”  Yellen spotlighted as evidence “real people behind the statistics,” describing how one person lost 2 jobs, endured homelessness & now serves food samples part-time at a grocery store.  Today’s speech shows Yellen is inclined to press on with accommodation to boost employment because she focused on slack in the labor market & didn’t mention economic growth.

Yellen Says Slack in Job Market Shows Need for Support


Sergey Lavrov and John Kerry
Photo:   Bloomberg

Russia began pulling back some troops from Ukraine’s eastern border as diplomatic moves continued to ease the crisis over its annexation of Crimea.  Pres Putin told Chancellor Angela Merkel that he’d ordered a partial withdrawal.  A Russian motorized battalion was returning to its base in the Samara region on the Volga river after exercises near the Ukrainian border. Secretary of State Kerry & his Russian counterpart, Lavrov, discussed Ukraine a day after 4 hours of talks between the 2 in Paris.  “I have the impression that a process of reflection has begun” in Russia, Merkel said.  “We would also like to have Russia closer to Europe if it plays by the rules.”  Putin & Merkel also discussed “possible further steps to stabilize the situation in Ukraine and in Transnistria,” the breakaway pro-Russian region of Moldova on Ukraine’s southwest border.  Putin’s office said the 2 leaders agreed to continue close cooperation, while saying the Russian pres had stressed the need for “constitutional reforms” in Ukraine that would also reflect the interests of Russian-speakers concentrated in the east of the country.  Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin’s demands that it grant its regions greater powers.  Shrugging off sanctions from the US & European allies, Putin has justified Russia’s takeover of Crimea as righting a historical wrong that split the region off from Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed.

Russia Pulls Back Some Troops Amid Moves to Ease Crisis


Microsoft, a Dow stock, CEO Satya Nadella announced new leadership roles for Scott Guthrie.  Nadella, who took over as CEO last month, wrote in an e-mail that he had appointed Guthrie to lead company’s cloud & enterprise organization.  Spencer will run the Xbox business & VP of the devices group when MSFT completes its acquisition of Nokia’s handset unit.  The CEO earlier this month named a chief strategy officer & disclosed the exits of several top executives.  Nadella is lining up his leadership team as he seeks growth in devices & cloud services.  He is also replacing execs who’ve left after Ballmer’s management overhaul in Jul & Nadella’s own appointment.  The changes among execs show “how we’re continuing to evolve and tune our organization for maximum focus and impact,” Nadella wrote.  Guthrie, who has been named a new exec VP, has been the acting head of the cloud unit for the past 2 months, replacing Nadella.  The stock went up 69¢ to the highest level in more than a decade.  If you would like to learn more about MSFT, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=MSFT&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Makes Management Changes Ahead of Conference

Microsoft (MSFT)



The S&P 500 held on for a new record close, but that title eluded the Dow (needing another 120).  As a consolation prize, it managed to advance 136 in Mar.  The moves today don't mean much when numerous portfolio adjustments were being made.  Tomorrow's numbers will be of greater interest.  Of course, kind words from Janet Yellen can always be counted on to bring out buyers.  As she indicated today, more such comments will be coming.

Dow Jones Industrials







I’m a huge fan of INO & from what I have seen so far, their service Marketclub!  This isn’t a stripped down version, everything in MarketClub is available to you. I don’t want to give everything away, but you’ll have unlimited access to my favorite 3 tools: Trade Triangles, Smart Scan & Alerts!  The best part is that the MarketClub customer support team will be providing UNLIMITED support!  You can call or email for an instant response to any question, comment or concern.

Here’s that link:

https://club.ino.com/join/specialtrial/index_free.html?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=359ef9a3

I’d recommend you jump on this now.

Higher markets as S&P hopes for fifth straight quarterly gain

The Dow jumped 135, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ rose 47 after recent weakness. The MLP index was flat in the 463s & the REIT inched up pennies in the 283s.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were weak.  Oil & gold fluctuated with little movement.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.46%

U.S. 10-year

2.75%

CLK14.NYM...Crude Oil May 14...101.51 Down ...0.16  (0.2%)

GCJ14.CMX....Gold Apr 14........1,289.20 Down ....4.60  (0.4%)







ECB President Mario Draghi
Photo:   Bloomberg

Mario Draghi can study an array of data this week to help him track his latest policy metric: economic slack.  Inflation figures show prices are rising at the slowest pace in more than four years.  Unemployment tomorrow should also help illustrate the spare capacity left in the euro area by its debt crisis & double-dip recession.  As the ECB pres meets policy makers to set interest rates on Thurs, manufacturing & services surveys might hint at how fast the output gap is closing.  Draghi mentioned slack for the first time after the last meeting to reassure investors that borrowing costs will stay low even as the economy revives.  The overnight cost of borrowing for banks in €s has been creeping upward as the economy improves.  The Eonia rate was at 0.195% on Fri, compared with as low as 0.07% in Nov after the ECB last cut official rates.  Inflation in the euro area slowed to 0.5% this month, according to an initial estimate by the EU statistics office.  While the figure is distorted by the timing of the Easter holiday, it’s still the slowest pace since Nov 2009, signaling that companies are struggling to raise prices amid feeble demand.  The ECB aims to return inflation to just under 2%.

Draghi Sifts Data on Slack as Inflation Cements Rate Vow


Aluminum Plant in Tokyo
Photo:   Bloomberg

Japan’s industrial production fell in Feb, undershooting all forecasts, as the first sales-tax increase since 1997 risks stalling recovery in the world’s 3rd-biggest economy.  Output fell 2.3% from the previous month, the steepest drop in 8 months, the trade ministry said.  The estimate was for a 0.3% gain.  A separate gauge of manufacturing fell in Mar for a 2nd straight month.  While the weakness partly reflected disruptions from heavy snowfall, the data showed manufacturers are bracing for a slump in demand following tomorrow’s sales-tax increase.  Inventories fell for a 7th straight month, lessening the likelihood of even sharper output cuts as the higher consumption levy pushes the economy into a one-quarter contraction in Q2.  Prime Minister Abe gave the go-ahead for the sales tax increase to help deal with the world’s biggest debt burden, even as he pushes reflationary policies to spur growth & end 15 years of deflation.  The ¥ was little changed, trading at 102.86.  The Finance Minister last week outlined plans to front-load spending in next fiscal year’s budget to help the economy weather the blow from the higher levy.  The Bank of Japan has also signaled that it’s ready to boost record easing if needed to drive inflation toward its 2% target.

Japan Industrial Output Unexpectedly Drops as Tax Hike Looms


Johnson & Johnson Logo
Photo:   Bloomberg

Johnson & Johnson, a Dividend Arustocrat, accepted a $4B offer from the Carlyle Group (CG) made in Jan to acquire the health-care products company’s diagnostics division.  The acceptance comes after consultation with relevant works councils & trade unions.  The unit, for sale since Nov, had sales of $1.9B last year (2.6% of JNJ revenue).  JNJ has said that it’s goals are to be the first or 2nd biggest in areas where it competes or to own businesses complementary to other JNJ units.  Today’s move is part of an industry trend to sell off secondary units & focus on primary businesses.  CG plans on operating the medical diagnostics business as a stand-alone company.  The unit makes blood tests to screen for diseases.  JNJ had received 2 other offers.  The deal should close near the middle of this year.  JNJ stock went up 1.12.  If you would lie to learn more about JNJ, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=JNJ&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

J&J Accepts $4 Billion Offer From Carlyle for Ortho Unit

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)




Markets are having another good day.  But with Q1 winding down today, it's difficult to tell how much is for real versus how much is due to fund manager's adjusting their books.  The S&P 500 is poised for another quarterly gain (up 24 or 1%) while Dow needs 120 to get into the black which is touchy with just a few hours of trading left.

Dow Jones Industrials