Monday, March 24, 2014

Markets decline on increased Russian concerns

Dow slid 26, decliners ahead of advancers 4-3 & NAZ tumbled 50.  The MLP index was off 1+ to the 457s & the REIT index fell 1+ to 281s.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries fluctuated.  Oil lost its strength in the AM & gold remained weak on prospects of higher interest rates. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)







Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.44%

U.S. 10-year

2.73%

CLK14.NYM....Crude Oil May 14....99.50 Up ...0.04 (0.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




World leaders pledged further measures against Russia amid growing concern that it’s building up its forces on the border with Ukraine after annexing the Crimean peninsula.  Pres Obama & the other G-7 heads met to decide what steps to take next in the crisis, including suspending Russia from the larger G-8 grouping in the worst standoff since the Soviet Union collapsed.  Ukraine said today it deployed more troops to the frontier.  “We should be clear there’s not going to be a G-8 summit in Russia this year,” UK Prime Minister Cameron told reporters in The Hague, where the leaders are attending a nuclear-security summit.  German Chancellor Merkel said the “political environment” wasn’t suitable for a G-8 summit, so “concrete consequences are called for.”  After Russian Pres Putin completed the annexation of Crimea & the 2 sides exchanged sanctions, attention has shifted to whether Russia will seek to claim other parts of Ukraine.  The US has warned of Russian troop reinforcements, raising concern that it may be preparing to carve off more areas of the east & south.  “As long as Russia is flagrantly violating international law and the order the G-7 has helped to build since the end of the Cold War, there’s no need for the G-7 to engage with Russia,” US Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said.  “We’re looking to send a message that we’re not done with building out the types of sanctions that we would impose on Russia for its actions.”  Investors pulled out $5.5B from Russian equities & bonds this year thru Mar 20, already approaching the total outflow of $6.1B for the whole 2013, according to EPFR Global (a firm tracking fund flows).  The US is seeking to put pressure on Russia’s equity added currency markets, Rhodes added.  “We’re careful to calibrate it,” he said.  “We’re not seeking to totally collapse the Russian economy.”

World Leaders Discuss Ukraine as Worry Grows Over Russia


Russia Staring at Recession as Intensity of Sanctions Grows
Photo:   Bloomberg

Sanctions imposed by the US & the EU are pushing Russia toward a recession as the intensity of their economic penalties increases after the annexation of Crimea earlier this month.  Banks including state-run VTB Capital say the world’s 9th-biggest economy will shrink for at least 2 qtrs as penalties for annexing Crimea rattle markets, curb investment & raise the cost of borrowing.  Sanctions that have so far focused on individuals may be expanded to target specific areas of the economy.  Pres Putin sent his popularity surging to a 5-year high by making Crimea a part of Russia again after 60 years & says he won’t be swayed by foreign retaliation.  Even so, the costs of the decision are starting to unfold, with Russian stocks this year’s worst performers & the economy set to suffer more than the West.  Before the standoff with the West, Russia’s economy was facing the weakest growth since a 2009 recession as consumer demand failed to make up for sagging investment.  The current situation in the economy “bears clear signs of a crisis,” Deputy Economy Minister Sergei Belyakov said last week after the first EU & US sanctions.

Russia Facing Recession as Sanctions Likely to Intensify


Nokia said the €5.44B ($7.5B) transaction to complete the sale of its mobile-phone division to Microsoft, a Dow stock, will be delayed until next month as Asian regulators review it.  MSFT is buying the business & licensing some patents to challenge the competition's dominance of the smartphone market.  Nokia is selling the unprofitable unit to try to stem losses by focusing on wireless-network equipment.  The companies had previously projected a completion by the end of Mar.  The transaction is pending approvals from “certain antitrust authorities in Asia,” & the companies remain committed to the deal, Nokia said today.  MSFT said the regulatory approval process is nearing the final stages.  Rival mobile-phone makers including have expressed concern to China that the deal may result in higher patent licensing fees.  But China’s Ministry of Commerce is conducting an anti-monopoly review & is likely to approve the deal.  Nokia & MSFT already have approvals from regulators in 15 markets, including US & European authorities.  MSFT stock went up 33¢.  If  you would like to learn more about MSFT, click on the link for Trend Analysis:
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Nokia Says Completion of Microsoft Deal Delayed Until April

Microsoft (MSFT)




Stocks had a tough day.  But the loss for the Dow was was reduced due to a 2% jump by Procter & Gamble (PG) & gains above 1% for JPMorgan (JPM) & IBM (IBM).  That made for an odd assortment while other stocks were sliding lower.  Nothing dramatic, but the bulls lost command of the markets.  NAZ was hurt by selling in pharmaceuticals.  They may be under more selling pressure tomorrow if the Russian mess drones on.  Dow continues down 300 in Q1.

Dow Jones Industrials









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