Monday, March 24, 2014

Lower markets on mixed economic data

Dow lost 39, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ retreated a very big 61 even though Apple (AAPL) was strong.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 456s & the REIT index fell 2 to the 281s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries eased back.  Oil is back over 100 while gold saw more selling.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.45%

U.S. 10-year

2.77%

CLK14.NYM...Crude Oil May 14...100.16 Up .....0.70 (0.7%)

GCH14.CMX...Gold Mar 14........1,316.70 Down ...19.30  (1.4%)








China's manufacturing industry weakened for a 5th straight month, according to a preliminary measure for Mar, deepening concern the nation will miss its 7.5% growth target this year.  The Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings &Markit Economics dropped to 48.1, compared with the 48.7 estimate & the Feb final 48.5 figure.  Numbers above 50 signal expansion.  Leaders face a balancing act of reining in credit expansion that’s fueled the risk of loans going bad, while averting an economic slump that raises the odds of higher unemployment.  The China manufacturing report, known as the Flash PMI, is typically based on 85-90% of responses to surveys sent to purchasing managers at manufacturers.  The final reading will be released Apr 1.  The PMIs have increasingly become a barometer of China's economy for global investors.  One advantage is that they’re among the first gauges for each month, as gov reports on trade, industrial output & retail sales typically are released several weeks later.

China Manufacturing Gauge Falls as Slowdown Deepens


An Employee Works at the Laulhere Factory in Orolon-Sainte-Marie
Photo:   Bloomberg

Growth in euro-area manufacturing & services stayed close to the fastest since 2011 in Mar as France improved, providing further evidence that the region’s recovery is on track.  Indices for both industries based on surveys of purchasing managers were little changed from Feb, according to Markit Economics.  A composite gauge slipped to 53.2 from 53.3 in Feb, matching the forecast.  The index has been above 50, indicating expansion, since Jul.  The report follows ECB Mario Draghi’s prediction that a fledgling recovery from the sovereign debt crisis will gradually gain strength.  Risks to that scenario include the € 6.2% increase against the dollar in the past year & signs of slowing growth in China.  Although the ECB predicts the euro area’s economy will return to full-year growth this year, it is expanding less quickly than other major economies & unemployment remains high.  Officials are also gauging the risk that too little inflation might evolve into deflation.

Euro Area Survey Indexes Stay Close to Three-Year High: Economy


The Markit Economics preliminary index for US manufacturing decreased to 55.5 in Mar from 57.1 a month earlier.  A reading above 50 indicates expansion.  This month’s reading was the 2nd-highest since Jan 2013.  The forecast was 56.5, with estimates ranging from 54 to 58.  The group’s new-orders index declined to 58 from 59.6 in Feb.  Employment also continued to grow at a slower pace in Mar.  The Markit index is based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 600 American manufacturers & has an 85-90% response rate.

Markit U.S. Manufacturing Index Fell to 55.5 in March From 57.1


Stocks are trying to figure out what to do next after the global economic data was less than encouraging for Mar.  Then there's the Russia situation which is getting more attention as it wants to grab more land.  That has the potential to get ugly fast.  The biggies are meeting in Europe looking to slap more sanctions on Russia.  Not sure how much good that will do.  Q1 is winding down.  With Dow down 300 YTD, this looks like it will be another indicator of a down year for stocks.,

Dow Jones Industrials









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