Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Higher markets after durable goods orders

Dow rose 40, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ was up 8.  The MLP index fluctuated in the 457s & the REIT index fell 2 to the 282s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries gained a tad.  Oil crawled higher & gold was about even.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.46%

U.S. 10-year

2.74%

CLF15.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 15...92.59 Down ...0.10  (0.1%)

GCH14.CMX...Gold Mar 14....1,315.20 Up ...3.80 (0.3%)









Durable Goods
Photo:   Bloomberg

Orders for US business equipment fell in Feb for the 2nd time in 3 months, signaling corp investment will be slow to gain momentum following an unusually harsh winter that put a damper on demand.  Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft fell 1.3% after an 0.8% gain in Jan (smaller than initially reported), according to the Commerce Dept.  Demand for all durable goods climbed a more-than-forecast 2.2%, reflecting the biggest gain in automobile demand in a year.  Frigid temperatures and snow across much of the country have muddied the outlook on the economy by restraining the housing rebound & consumer spending.  That means companies will need to see additional proof that the recovery will accelerate in 2014 before expanding operations.  Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft are considered a proxy for future business investment.  Last month’s drop was led be declining demand for machinery, communications equipment & computers.  Shipments of such goods, used in calculating GDP, climbed 0.5% in Feb after a 1.4% drop the prior month that was larger than previously estimated.  The annualized pace of non-military capital goods sales excluding aircraft for the past 3 months rose at a 5.1% annualized rate compared with a 7.8% advance at the end of Q4, indicating business investment is cooling in Q1.  One bright spot in today’s report was demand for autos.  Orders for motor vehicles & parts climbed 3.6%, the biggest gain since last Feb. 

Capital Goods Orders Drop as U.S. Business Spending Cools


U.S. President Barack Obama
Photo:   Bloomberg

Ukraine & the IMF neared the end of bailout talks today as the US & European allies warned they’ll further penalize Russia if it intensifies the crisis after annexing Crimea.  The IMF & Ukraine must still resolve issues concerning state natural gas subsidies, Deputy Economy Minister Anatoliy Maksyuta said.  Battling dwindling reserves & the threat of a 3rd recession since 2008, Ukraine wants a loan of $15-$20B, Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak said yesterday.  “I hope we will complete talks with the IMF today,” Shlapak added.  “If we do not agree today, we have time until tomorrow.”  The cabinet wants to stabilize Ukraine after 4 months of political crisis, while facing the threat of further Russian military incursion.  Unpopular measures like those in the IMF-endorsed austerity campaigns that triggered protests & toppled gov from Greece to Spain during the euro area debt crisis may risk fomenting further unrest.  The interim gov is bracing for an economic contraction that Shlapak forecast at 3% this year.  The prime minister, who has compared his cabinet to a “political kamikaze,” has heralded decisions to cut subsidies & welfare payments & said he’s ready to be “the most unpopular prime minister” in history.



GM Stock Down 14% Shows Barra’s Challenges From Recalls to China
Photo:   Bloomberg

Less than 3 months into her tenure as CEO of General Motors, Mary Barra has more than recalls to worry about.  GM stock is down almost 14%.  Within weeks of taking the helm, Barra began recalling 1.6M small cars with faulty ignition switches tied to 12 deaths.  Her challenges also include stemming losses in Europe, navigating currency fluctuations in South America, buffering Volkswagen advances in China & managing a slow start to 2014 sales in the US where a bitterly cold winter hamstrung retail activity.  While GM has been looking to benefit from last year’s introduction of 18 new or refreshed vehicles in the US deliveries of the redesigned Chevrolet Silverado full-size pickup fell 15% in the first 2 months of this year, compared with a year earlier.  Cadillac, one of the market’s top-performing brands last year with a 22% increase, has seen sales slide 7.9% thru Feb this year.  In Europe, GM wants to break even by mid-decade after losing more than $18B in the region since 1999. The automaker is pulling its Chevrolet brand from the region to better position its Opel line against Volkswagen. The US company is also closing its assembly plant in Bochum, Germany, the first auto factory to be shuttered in the country since World War II.  The stock is up pennies today.  If you would like to learn more about GM, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=GM&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

GM Down 14% Shows Barra Challenges From Recalls to China

General Motors (GM)



Stocks continue to meander.  Aside from one dip at mid month, Dow has been flattish in Mar.  Bulls want to take Dow higher so it can finish in the black for Q1.  It needs go up another 170 which is still far form certain with qtr end adjustments being made by money managers.  .

Dow Jones Industrials









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