Monday, March 17, 2014

Higher markets on improved manufacturing data

Dow shot up 183, advancers over decliners a very big 5-1 & NAZ gained 48.  The MLP index lost 1 to the 458s (still flattish in the last year) & the REIT index went up 1 to 285.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries eased back.  Oil lost ground & gold is about even at 6 month highs.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.35%

U.S. 10-year

2.67%

CLJ14.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 14...98.18 Down ...0.71  (0.7%)

GCH14.CMX...Gold Mar 14....1,377.70 Down ...1.30  (0.1%)







US factory production rose in Feb by the most in 6 months, indicating the industry started to recover from severe winter weather.  The 0.8% gain at manufacturers followed a revised 0.9% slump in the prior month that was the biggest since May 2009, according to the Federal Reserve.  The forecast called for a 0.3% advance.  Total industrial production rose 0.6%, more than projected.  The advance shows output began to pick up after snowstorms in the eastern US prevented some factories from receiving parts & materials in Jan.  Stronger demand from consumers & companies would help bolster manufacturers, which are faced with a build-up in inventories.  Mining production, which includes oil drilling, rose 0.3% in Feb after a 0.5% gain. Utility output fell 0.2%.  Jan’s 3.8% increase was the biggest in almost a year as storms & frigid temperatures boosted demand.  Motor vehicle output rose 4.8% last month after a 5.2% drop at the start of the year.  Auto assemblies increased in Feb to an 11.4M annual pace from 10.6M rate a month earlier.  Factory output excluding vehicles & parts rose 0.5% last month.

Manufacturing Production in U.S. Rises by Most in Six Months


A Customer Buys Vegetables at a Farmer's Market in Athens
Photo:   Bloomberg

Euro area inflation unexpectedly slowed in Feb, keeping pressure on the ECB to defend the currency bloc against falling prices.  Consumer prices rose an annual 0.7% rate, down from 0.8% in Jan, the EU said, below Eurostat’s initial estimate of 0.8% on Feb 28.  The rate has been below 1% for 5 months.  The ECB aims to keep inflation just below 2% & has blamed the strength of the euro for helping to keep prices subdued.  The central bank expects its key interest rates ‘‘to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time,’’ President Mario Draghi said.  ‘‘This expectation is based on an overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy, the high degree of unutilized capacity and subdued money and credit creation,’’ Draghi said.  Consumer prices increased 0.3% in Feb from the previous month.  The slowdown in the annual rate was driven by energy prices, which fell 2.3% in Feb from a year earlier.  The cost of services grew 1.3%, up from 1.2% in Jan. 
Annual core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy, alcohol & tobacco, accelerated to 1% in Feb from 0.8%.  The ECB forecasts inflation of 1% this year & 1.3% in 2015.

Euro-Area February Inflation Slows, Keeps Pressure on ECB


Pentagon contracts dropped 48% in Feb, extending a slump that has awards near the lowest level in almost 2 years.  The Defense Dept announced contracts with a maximum value of $12B last month, compared with $23B a year earlier.  They fell to $8.44B in Jan, the worst showing in 2 years.  While last month’s announced contracts declined from a year earlier, they rose 42% from Jan.  The Defense Dept is required to announce contracts of at least $6.5M.

Pentagon’s February Contracts Drop 48% in Extended Slump


While stocks are having a good day, gold has been doing well for months.  The confusion surrounding the Ukraine mess is keeping demand strong.  Today's gains in the Dow come after a decline last week.  However, Dow is still down more than 300 YTD in what was supposed to be another up year.

Dow Jones Industrials









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