Thursday, March 13, 2014

Markets drop on Ukraine & China worries

Dow tumbled 231, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ sank 62.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 455s (near where it has been for a year) & the REIT index slid 1+ to the 283s.  Junk bond funds were soft but Treasuries rose on intl worries.  Oil & gold inched higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)









Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.33%

U.S. 10-year

2.65%

CLJ14.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 14...98.26 Up ...0.27 (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk sought financial aid from the West & promised to adopt measures needed to steady an economy beset by a plunging currency & widening budget deficits.  “The new Ukrainian government is ready to deliver changes,” Yatsenyuk said in DC during a visit that included a meeting with President Obama & Christine Lagarde of the IMF.  “We fully realize that the IMF program is not a sweet candy, but on the other hand, my country desperately needs real reforms to stabilize the Ukrainian economy,” he said.  The $15B IMF loan Ukraine is seeking is key to unblocking aid pledged by the US & the EU to help stabilize the former Soviet republic after the ouster of its Russian-backed president.  The challenge for Yatsenyuk is to convince the IMF it’s serious about overhauling an economy that barely grew in the past 2 years & tops global rankings of corruption.  The country’s industrial production has fallen for 20 straight months, & the  energy minister said the gov faces a 37% increase in its bill for Russian natural gas.  The economy may shrink by 3% this year after failing to grow last year.  This is not a pretty story.

Ukraine Premier Promises Economic Overhaul to Win IMF Aid


China's weakest start to a year for investment growth since 2001 & unexpectedly slow industrial production add pressure for economic stimulus, just as Premier Li Keqiang signals he wants to avoid such a move.  Li indicated his confidence economic goals for 2014 are in reach.  But fresh data showed factory output rose in Jan & Feb from a year earlier by the least since the global financial crisis, retail sales grew at the slowest rate for the period since 2004.  The figures increase chances that China will take steps to boost growth including the first cut in almost 2 years to lenders’ reserve requirements.  A weakening in the yuan this year & declining interbank interest rates may indicate the gov is already trying to help the economy.  China was able to realize last year’s economic targets without using short-term stimulus measures, Li said yesterday.  “Why will we be unable to do so this year?” he asked.  Li pledged to guard against financial risks & limit pollution.  Talking of economic expansion, he said the gov’s key concerns are jobs & livelihoods & that growth can be “a bit higher or a bit lower” than the target of “about” 7.5%.

China Stimulus Decision Looms as Investment Slows


Even though economic problems are far from settled in America, the global economy is getting most of traders' attention today.  The Ukraine is a mess, but there are hopes that bailout money will solve the messy situation.   Slow growth in China has been a lingering problem for a year & new leaders will try to mend the economy.   However, there has been little success so far & a slowdown in the Chinese economy will be felt around the world.  Dow is down more than 200 (today's s decline) in Mar & almost 500 YTD, not a good sign for the rest of the year.

Dow Jones Industrials









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