Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Markets decline after Obama's comments on Crimea

Dow slumped 98 (closing at the lows), decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ fell 60.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 457s & the REIT index lost 3+ to 280 (both flattish for months).  Junk bond funds did little but Treasuries saw buying in the PM.  Oil crawled higher & gold fell to a 5-week low as signs of economic recovery in the US boosted speculation the Federal Reserve will further pare stimulus, curbing demand for the precious metal as a store of value.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)









Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.44%

U.S. 10-year

2.70%

CLF15.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 15....92.74 Up ...0.15 (0.2%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Russia may direct at least $2.8B of emergency budget reserves this year to subsidize Crimea.  The gov estimates 100B rubles ($2.8B) to 130B rubles are needed to support Crimea & the port city of Sevastopol, home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.  The amount may swell to 260B rubles to raise state pensions & salaries to Russian levels.  Pres Putin, facing the weakest economic outlook since 2009, Q1 capital outflows may exceed the level for all of last year, defied the US & EU threats of sanctions to absorb Crimea.  Putin last week ordered Crimean pensions to be increased “without delay.”  The gov is considering dipping into rainy-day money written into the budget to stem the impact of any economic crisis this year.  The reserve, set at 344B rubles, contains pension savings transferred to cover this year’s pay-as-you-go funding gap.  The Finance Ministry is waiting for spending estimates from all gov agencies & will present its final budget projections in mid-Apr.  In addition to the subsidies, the gov estimates Crimea will need investments including $3.8B for transportation & recreational facilities.  It's difficult to understand where this mess will lead!

Russia Said to Weigh $2.8 Billion of Budget Cache for Crimea


U.S. President Barack Obama
Photo:   Bloomberg

Ukraine & the IMF are nearing the end of bailout talks today as the US & European allies warned they’ll further penalize Russia if it intensifies the crisis after annexing Crimea.  Ukraine wants a loan of $15-$20B & Greek stabilization could be a model for Ukraine, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.  Any agreement with the IMF would be preliminary.  Under the lender’s procedures, the negotiators have to return to DC & write a report for management & for the executive board, which would meet in following weeks to approve the loan package.  After failed attempts to revive loan talks last year, IMF board directors said Ukraine should be offered smaller amounts & be asked for “strong prior actions,” or measures to be implemented before receiving funds.  Prime Minister  Yatsenyuk's interim gov is bracing for an economic contraction of 3% this year.  The prime minister, who has compared his cabinet to a political “kamikaze,” has heralded decisions to cut subsidies & welfare payments & said he’s ready to be “the most unpopular prime minister” in history.  As the gov in Kiev pursues aid to avert default, pres Obama warned today that “Russian actions in Ukraine aren’t just about one country” & that the Kremlin is challenging the US & allies.  The White House & EU imposed sanctions on Russian officials & threatened more if Putin fails to ease the crisis.  More confusion for investors to digest.

Ukraine Nears End of IMF Aid Talks as Obama Warns Russia


Facebook is making a $2B bet that a virtual-reality headset will one day become the center of its users’ social lives.  The company said it is buying Oculus VR, pushing into wearable hardware for the first time.  Oculus makes a ski-goggles-like device called Rift, now used for playing games, that eventually could immerse people in experiences like classes & sport events.  FB CEO Mark Zuckerberg is seeking growth beyond smartphones & tablets.  Developers are looking for new gadgets to showcase wares & are focusing on the more lifelike experiences that Oculus provides, Zuckerberg said.  “Mobile is the platform of today, and now we’re also getting ready for the platforms of tomorrow,” Zuckerberg added.  “Oculus has the chance to create the most social platform ever, and change the way we work, play and communicate.”  FB will pay $400M in cash & 23.1M shares for Oculus, as well as an additional $300M if the startup achieves certain milestones.  The stock dropped 4.51.  If you would like to learn more about FB, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=FB&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Facebook Makes $2 Billion Bet on Virtual Reality With Oculus Goggle Maker

Facebook (FB)



Stocks keep stumbling around, looking for direction.  Eastern Europe is a confusing mess & nobody knows what to do.  Putin is in command & even he faces challenges.  Meanwhile money managers are buying & selling, trying to make their portfolios look better in unclear times.  After sliding back in the PM, Dow is down 300 in Q1.  Not encouraging for the stock market going forward.

Dow Jones Industrials









I’m a huge fan of INO & from what I have seen so far, their service Marketclub!  This isn’t a stripped down version, everything in MarketClub is available to you.  I don’t want to give everything away, but you’ll have unlimited access to my favorite 3 tools: Trade Triangles, Smart Scan & Alerts!
The best part is that the MarketClub customer support team will be providing UNLIMITED support!
You can call or email for an instant response to any question, comment or concern.

Here’s that link:

https://club.ino.com/join/specialtrial/index_free.html?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=359ef9a3

I’d recommend you jump on this now.

No comments: