Thursday, March 27, 2014

Lower markets, led by banks and technology

Dow was off 4, advancers just ahead of declines, but NAZ dropped 22.  The MLP index jumped 2+ to over 460 & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 281s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries climbed.  Oil advanced to the highest level in more than 2 weeks after supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the contract, reached a 2-year low.  Gold kept sliding lower, finishing below 1300.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)







Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.44%

U.S. 10-year

2.67%

CLF15.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 15....93.96 Up ...0.73 (0.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Contracts to purchase previously owned US homes unexpectedly fell in Feb for an 8th straight month, a sign of further weakness in the industry.  The index of pending home sales decreased 0.8% after a 0.2% drop the prior month that was previously reported as a gain, according to the National Association of Realtors.  The forecast called for a 0.2% rise.  Colder-than-normal weather probably played a role in discouraging prospective buyers faced with rising mortgage rates, higher prices & limited supply of cheaper properties.  At the same time, the Realtors group said buyer traffic is stabilizing, which may help spur demand as temperatures warm.  2 of 4 regions, the South & Northeast, saw a decrease from the previous month.  Contract signings decreased 10.2% from a year earlier on an unadjusted basis, the most since Apr 2011, after a 9.3% drop in the prior 12-month period.  Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings.   Existing home sales are tabulated when a contract closes, typically a month or 2 later.  “Buyer traffic information from our monthly Realtor survey shows a modest turnaround, and some weather-delayed transactions should close in the spring,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said.  The weather also was a restraining factor in other parts of the housing market.  Purchases of new homes fell in Feb to the lowest level in 5 months, according to Commerce Dept.  Sales of previously owned properties declined last month to the lowest level since Jul 2012.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence rose less than forecast in Mar.

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Decline for Eighth Month


The pres said additional sanctions on Russia would inevitably also hit the economies of the US & Europe. The US & allies are looking at Russia’s military, energy & finance industries as possible targets if it moves deeper in Ukraine, he said today.  Work is under way to craft sanctions would be most effective.  “None of them, to have a powerful impact on Russia, are going to have zero impact on us because Russia is part of the world economy,” Obama said.  “Everybody owns a piece of everything.”  The US & EU already have imposed asset freezes & travel bans on individual Russians & Ukrainians, including businessmen associated with Russian pres Putin.  One Russian bank also has been sanctioned by the US.  Obama has authorized, though not put into effect, additional US sanctions targeting the Russian economy.  European govs, faced with youth unemployment rates above 50% in some southern-tier countries, are debating the costs of more sanctions.  Banking curbs would hurt Britain, an arms embargo would bar France from selling Mistral-class helicopter carriers to the Kremlin, & cutbacks in purchases of Russian gas would harm a swath of EU countries, starting with Germany.  Obama said he wants to design any sanctions to have minimal impact on US & European companies.  “Even better, hopefully we don’t have to use them” because Russia de-escalates the conflict, he said.  Sounds like all that is getting done is tough talk.

Obama Says U.S. Weighing Economic Impact of Russia Sanctions


Microsoft’s Nadella Unveils Office for IPad in Mobile-App Push

Photo:   Bloomberg

Microsoft (a Dow company) CEO Satya Nadella said he will “hold nothing back” in getting the company’s programs across all devices, in a clear departure from the software maker’s longtime focus on its Windows operating system.  At his first public speech since taking the CEO job last month, Nadella unveiled Office software for the iPad & said MSFT's goal was for subscribers to its Office 365 service to be able to use the programs on any gadget, even if it leads to reduced sales of Windows-based personal computers or other products.  He also rolled out technology to enable developers to create what he called a “cloud for everyone on every device.”  “It’s not a tradeoff, because it’s about going where customers are going,” Nadella said.  “It’s not about today’s share position based on today’s form factors, because in the full arc of time there will be many new platforms that will require Office, from small screens to large screens.”  Nadella is presiding over a shift to a more open approach, where MSFT sells applications & services for its own operating systems as well as those of rivals.  In contrast, former CEO Steve Ballmer kept more of a focus on Windows, including pushing the operating system onto smartphones.  Office for iPad, which now includes Word, PowerPoint & Excel, also heralds a new business model for the software, which has been a paid product.  Now users will be able to view their Office documents for free on their iPad, thru to edit or create documents they will need to pay $99 a year for a subscription to Office 365.  Last year, MSFT released paid versions of Office apps for the iPhone.  On his first day as CEO, Nadella emphasized the company’s focus on devices & Web-based cloud services, saying those priorities would “define Microsoft going forward.”  The stock fell 43¢.  If you would like to learn more about MSFT, click on this link for Trend Analysis:
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Microsoft (MSFT)


stock chart 


There was not a lot of exciting news in the market today.  Tech has been out of favor for a week & banks are under suspicion after Citigroup (C) failed a stress test done by the Federal Reserve, bringing back ugly memories of the recession 5 years ago.  The stock lost 2.71 (5%).  The chaos related to Russia & it's takeover of the Crimea has quieted a bit, but its effects are being felt around the world.  Once again the bulls were not able to retake command of the markets & the odds are growing that the Dow will finish in the red when Q1 closes on Mon.

Dow Jones Industrials









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