Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Higher markets on rising consumer confidence

The Dow climbed 44, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was off pennies.  The MLP index gained a fraction to 458 & the REIT index was up a fraction to 282.  Junk bond funds were mixed while Treasuries slid back.  Oil & gas are treading water.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.43%

U.S. 10-year

2.75%

CLK14.NYM...Crude Oil May 14...99.57 Down ...0.03  (0.0%)

GCH14.CMX...Gold Mar 14......1,312.00 Up ...0.80 (0.1%)







Consumer confidence climbed in Mar to the highest level since 2008 as Americans grew more optimistic about the outlook for the world’s largest economy.  The Conference Board’s index climbed to 82.3, the highest since Jan 2008, from a revised 78.3 in Feb that was stronger than initially estimated.   The share of Americans projecting business conditions would get better over the next 6 months rose to a 6-month high.  A pickup in hiring that drives wage growth would provide a bigger boost to the expansion at the same time warmer temperatures help persuade consumers to return to retailers.  The measure of consumer expectatons for the next 6 months rose to 83.5, the highest in 6 months, from 76.5 a month before.  Some 18.1% of respondents were more optimistic about business conditions.  But the present conditions measure fell for the first time in 5 months, to 80.4 from 81 last month.  Consumers were less upbeat about the current labor market.

Consumer Confidence Index in U.S. Increased to 82.3 in March


U.S. Home Sales
Photo:  Bloomberg

Feb new homes sales in the US fell to the lowest level in 5 months, a sign the industry may take time to pick up after inclement weather damped demand earlier in the year.  Sales declined 3.3% to a 440K annualized pace, following a 455K rate in the prior month (the strongest in a year), according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for 445K.  Unusually frigid temperatures added to restraints including rising mortgage rates, higher property values, & a lack of supply that kept prospective buyers away from the market for new & existing properties.  Bigger gains in employment & consumer sentiment would help spur the recovery in homebuilding, sustaining its contribution to economic growth.  The supply of homes at the current sales rate climbed to 5.2 months from 5 months in the prior month.  There were 189K new houses on the market at the end of Feb, the most since Dec 2010.  New-home sales, which accounted for about 8% of the residential market in 2013, are tabulated when contracts are signed, making them a timelier barometer than purchases of previously owned dwellings.  Sales of existing homes are tabulated when a deal closes, typically a month or 2 later.

Sales of New U.S. Homes Fell in February to Five-Month Low


Top industrial powers threatened further sanctions to deter Russian Pres Putin from taking over other parts of Ukraine & suspended Russia from participating in the Group of 8.  Meeting for the first time since last week’s annexation of Crimea by Russia, G-7 leaders said last night they won’t attend a planned G-8 meeting which was to have been held in Sochi, & will instead hold their own summit in Jun in Brussels.  Both sides in Ukraine’s crisis spent the day calculating what to do next, with Russia consolidating its control over Crimea & maintaining forces along the border with Ukraine in the most serious confrontation between Moscow & the US & allies since the demise of the Soviet Union.  The IMF is set to make an announcement tomorrow following talks about a bailout loan for Ukraine.  An IMF team was completing talks in Kiev on a loan that would amount to $15-$20B as Ukraine’s economy is forecasted to contract 3% this year.  Russia’s Finance Ministry canceled its 4th ruble-bond auction in a row, scheduled for tomorrow, citing “unfavorable market conditions.” 

Putin Threatened With More Sanctions as Russia Out of G-8


While Dow is doing well, NAZ continues under pressure.  Overall there is still a cautious attitude towards stocks.  Gold has pulled back recently in anticipation of higher interest rates.  The markets remain fairly quiet even though Russia has been flexing its muscles which is worrisome to say the least.  Dow remains under water YTD, down 250.

Dow Jones Industrials









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