Thursday, June 27, 2019

Markets climb cautiously on hopes for easing trade tensions

Dow was off 10, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ jumped up 57.  The MLP index fell fractionally to the 247s  & the REIT index gained 2+ to the 381s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were purchased, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 2%.  Oil was off pennies in the 59s & gold fell 4 to 1411.

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San Francisco Fed Pres Mary Daly said that she is not sure the central bank needs to cut its benchmark interest rate in Jul.  "It is too early to know if we should use the tool [interest rates] at all," Daly said.  The San Francisco Fed pres, who is not a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate committee this year, said she was watching to see if the slowing data, seen over the past 6 weeks, "sticks."  There is no evidence trade tariffs have slowed the economy or caused inflation to rise, she added.  But the tension surrounding trade has caused businesses to become more cautious.  "It is the uncertainty that is holding back the economy," she continued.

Fed's Daly says not sure if interest rates need to be cut


Filings for US unemployment benefits increased by more than expected to a 7-week high, a possible sign of strains in the labor market that could factor in to the Federal Reserve's debate over whether to cut interest rates next month.  Jobless claims rose by 10K to 227K last week, according to the Labor Dept.  That exceeded all estimates in a recent survey.  The 4-week average, a less-volatile measure, increased to 221K, the highest in more than a month.  The uptick in claims may heighten concerns about the strength of the labor market after job gains trailed estimates in May.  Even so, the Jun employment report due next week will likely prove more important as it will provide a detailed picture ahead of Fed meeting in late Jul.  Even with the increase nationally, jobless claims remain near historically low levels as higher wages & low unemployment support consumer spending, which accounts for most of the economy.


Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, shares fell after an intl aviation body added pressure on the company to coordinate 737 Max pilot training for all regulators & airlines around the world, asking for an “alignment on additional training requirements for Boeing 737 MAX flight crew.”  The statement from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) came after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said yesterday it found another software issue with the company’s grounded 737 Max aircraft.  While the intl aviation body said it trusts the FAA, it added that US regulators need to work in step with intl regulators, as “aviation cannot function efficiently without this coordinated effort.”  The IATA's statement followed its summit in Montreal about the 737 Max, with representatives of over 40 airlines, regulators & other companies attending.  “The Boeing 737 MAX tragedies weigh heavily on an industry that holds safety as its top priority,” IATA Director General & CEO Alexandre de Juniac said.  “Aviation is a globally integrated system that relies on global standards, including mutual recognition, trust, and reciprocity among safety regulators.”  Pressure on BA stock has mounted since yesterday, when the FAA said it had found a new issue with the 737 Max aircraft.  “The FAA’s process is designed to discover and highlight potential risks. The FAA recently found a potential risk that Boeing must mitigate,” the agency said.  With the new delay, the best-case scenario for the first certification flight of the 737 Max is the 2nd week of Jul.  But that could add an additional 6-9 months.  BA disclosed in a filing with the SEC that this new issue was not covered by the changes it had planned for MCAS, a software system that has been the focus of regulators after 2 airplanes crashed since Oct, killing 346.  BA stock sank 10.92 (3%).
If you would like to learn more about BA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Boeing shares fall after new uncertainty about the 737 Max return

By midday, stocks were bought bringing the Dow into the black.  However that enthusiasm faded in the last 2 hours.  The Dow was also hurt by the decline at BA.  Trade talks are the main driver of the bigger picture for stocks.  Uncertainty about the outcome is likely to last well beyond next week.  While gold has pulled back in the last couple of days, it remains above 1400 because negative thinking investors have not deserted it.

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