Friday, June 28, 2019

Markets rise ahead of Trump Xi meeting

Dow went up 48, advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ gained 15.  The MLP index rose 1 to 248 & the REIT index added 1+ to the 382s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were a tad lower following recent strength.  Oil slid lower in the 59s & gold continued in demand, rising 4 to 1416.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil59.09
 -0.34 -0.6%

GC=FGold   1,412.90
+0.90+0.1%







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Stocks traded mixed as investors look ahead to tonight's meeting between Pres Trump & China's Pres Xi Jinping, which could potentially ease trade tensions between the 2 nations.  Hopes of a deal were tempered this week after reports that Xi would give Trump a set of conditions to be met by DC before reaching any settlement.  There is also the threat of further tariffs on Chinese goods, which Trump mentioned this week.  For the month, all 3 major averages are on pace for gains of more than 6%.  Trump tweeted about the market's performance, taking credit for the market's strong performance.  Large-cap US banks rose after the Federal Reserveapproved capital plans of 16 banks.  In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.6% & was down 0.8% for the week.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.3% but crawled up 0.2% for the week.  Japan's Nikkei ended 0.5% lower & lost 0.2% for the week.  In Europe, London's FTSE added 0.2%, Germany's DAX added 0.6% & France's CAC was higher by 0.5%.

US stocks trade mixed as Trump attends G20

Consumer sentiment rose to 98.2 in Jun, coming in slightly above the forecast of 98.0.  The Univ of Mich preliminary reading earlier in the month was 97.9.  Though sentiment rose slightly from the reading in early Jun, it fell compared to the May readings.  Consumer sentiment had hit a 15-year high in early May at 102.4.  But those robust gains were recorded mostly before US-China trade talks collapsed & Pres Trump hiked tariffs on $200B in Chinese goods, provoking Beijing to respond with its own levies.  Sentiment had started slip toward the end of May, declining to 100.0 as consumers grew increasingly concerned about the impact tariffs would have on prices.

Consumer sentiment slightly beats expectations in June

Nike (NKE), a Dow stock, sold more sneakers & sports gear during the fiscal Q4 than expected, helping to boost revenues by 4% to just over $10B.  The earnings, however, missed expectations by a few pennies a share, & the stock initially fell.  EPS was 62¢ on an adjusted basis, short of the forecast for 66¢.  Revenues for the Nike brand, which excludes Converse merchandise, jumped 10% from the same qtr last year to $9.7B.  Converse sales were about flat at $491M.  Total sales in North America, excluding fluctuations in currency rates, were up 8% to $4.17B & sales in the China region surged 22% to $1.70B.  Footwear sales in North America, excluding fluctuations in currency rates, were up 9% during the last qtr, while the apparel business grew 6% & equipment sales were up 7%.  Despite an ongoing trade war between the US & China, NKE said “we are and remain a brand of China and for China.” The company said it hasn’t seen any impact to date on its business from the ongoing tensions overseas.  It added that, “the consumer sentiment around Nike in China has been actually quite strong.”  The stock rose 20¢.
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Nike misses on earnings, but beats on revenues as customers buy more sneakers and sports gear

Consumer spending rose at a healthy clip in May for the 3rd month in a row, suggesting the US economy is still on solid ground even as growth has waned.  Consumer spending increased 0.4% last month, the gov said.  That’s a tick below the MarketWatch forecast, but the increase in spending in Apr was doubled to 0.6% from 0.3%, revised figures show.  Incomes advanced 0.5% for the 2nd month in a row to help support higher household spending.  Inflationary pressures, meanwhile, remained quite low.  Although prices rose slightly in May, the pace of inflation over the past 12 months tapered off to 1.5% from 1.6% using the Federal Reserve's favorite PCE price gauge.  That's well below the Fed's 2% target.  Americans bought more new cars & trucks, rented more hotel rooms & spent more on prepared food or eating out.  Yet since incomes rose slightly faster than spending, the savings rate was unchanged at 6.1%.  Inflation as measured by the PCE index rose 0.2%.  Prices excluding the up-&-down food & energy categories also rose 0.2%.  The core number is viewed as a more reliable barometer of inflation trends because its less prone to sharp swings.  Diminishing inflation & slower growth have positioned the Fed to cut interest rates as soon as Jul to help prolong a record 10-year-old economic expansion & reassure investors, households & businesses.  Consumers are still spending at levels that are very healthy, but the Fed is worried that spending will taper off if Americans begin to lose confidence in the economy.  Earlier this week, a closely followed measure of consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in almost 2 years.  Incomes & wages are not increasingly as rapidly as they were last year, either.

Consumers boost spending in May as incomes rise and inflation stays low


While stocks had an excellent month, so did safe haven gold & Treasuries.  The Dow is up more than 1700 in Jun while gold had its best month in 3 years & Treasury yields are close to multi year lows.  Equities & safe haven investments are no supposed to attract investors at the same time.  Trade talks may cause that relationship to change.

Dow Jones Industrials






 

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