Friday, June 21, 2019

Markets waver after the news from Iran

Dow went up 14, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ slid back 10.  The MLP index gained 1 to 248.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were hit with profit taking following the rally.  Oil remained strong, climbing to the 57s & gold, after touching 1400, pulled back 2 to 1394.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil57.35
+0.28+0.5%

GC=FGold   1,401.70
+4.80+0.4%







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Pres Trump responded to multiple reports about an eleventh-hour cancellation of a US strike against Iran, tweeting today the US was “cocked and loaded” but he decided to call off the move when he was told 150 people would be killed in the strike.  The news follows the downing of a US drone by Iran earlier this week.  In a series of tweets, Trump blamed former Pres Obama for the festering situation with Iran before detailing the decision-making behind his call to step back from retaliatory strikes.  "President Obama made a desperate and terrible deal with Iran - Gave them 150 Billion Dollars plus I.8 Billion Dollars in CASH! Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to Nuclear Weapons, and SOON. Instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled.....Death to America. I terminated deal, which was not even ratified by Congress, and imposed strong sanctions. They are a much weakened nation today than at the beginning of my Presidency, when they were causing major problems throughout the Middle East. Now they are Bust!" Trump tweeted.  "On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not....proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!" he continued.  Retaliatory strikes against Iran had been tied up in response to a navy drone being shot out of the sky yesterday over the Strait of Hormuz, what the US said was intl airspace, a source said.  A source said the administration made a last-minute decision to call off the retaliatory strikes against Iran.  But until Trump's tweets, few details about the aborted mission & the circumstances that led to the reversal were publicly available.  And it remained unclear whether strike plans had been definitively shelved.  Multiple news outlets had reported similar accounts of strikes being called off late yesterday, citing unnamed sources. These reports portray a mission that would have targeted Iranian missile batteries & radars.  Stocks traded lower on today, the day after the S&P 500 closed at a record high, amid the Iran developments.  US crude futures were higher by 0.4% to $57.33 while the yield on the 10-year Treasury edged up slightly to 2.03%.

Trump says Iran strike was canceled last minute: 'We were cocked and loaded'


White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is urging Congress to pass the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement by the summer to reduce the trade deficit & boost American jobs.  “Ambassador Robert Lighthizer is working really hard on Capitol Hill to talk with both the Democrats and the Republicans to get this on the floor of the House and the Senate,” he said.  “If it gets there it’s going to pass overwhelmingly in a bipartisan way.”  Navarro said the USMCA deal revolves around the rules of origin, which provides greater incentives to source goods & materials in the US & North America.  And also, modernizing the agreement to incorporate the digital economy & intellectual properties into the old NAFTA.  “Those are three sectors where we really have a strong competitive advantage in so let’s get it done this summer, he added.  A bullish Pres Trump joined by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau  showed confidence that a vote to approve the USMCA trade deal will happen soon.  “I really believe Nancy Pelosi and the House will approve it. I think the Senate will approve it very rapidly. It’s going to be very bipartisan,” Trump said.  Legislators in Mexico have already signed off on the new NAFTA deal, but it could take months before Canada & the US complete the USMCA deal because Dems are concerned with the agreement's enforcement mechanism.  “It’s the largest trade deal, by far, ever entered into. And we’re very close to having it finalized,” Trump said.  “This means a lot of jobs for our country; a lot of wealth for all three countries.


Existing-home sales were at a 5.34M seasonally adjusted annual pace in May, the National Association of Realtors said.  Sales of previously-owned homes were 2.5% higher than in Apr, but 1.1% lower than the selling pace a year ago.  The forecast called for a 5.28M annual rate.  The median selling price in May was $277K, a 4.8% annual increase & the 87th-straight month of annual price increases.  The Northeast, where sales have been socked by high prices & the loss of the ability to deduct property taxes from federal returns, saw a 4.7% jump in sales in May.  In the Midwest, sales were up 3.4%.  In both the South & the West, sales ticked up 1.8%.  The housing market may have reached a natural peak, but conditions are still tight after years of pent-up demand.  At the current pace of sales, it would take 4.3 months to exhaust available supply, still well below the 6-month threshold that’s traditionally been considered a marker of a balanced market, even though inventory increased during the month.  Properties stayed on the market for an average of 26 days in May, up a bit from 24 days in Apr but still a sign of a strong seller's market.

Existing-home sales rebound in May


Stocks took the news from Iran fairly well.  That suggests there is underlying strength by stick buyers.  But the situation remains very scary.  Stock averages continue to be near records levels while negative investors are bidding up the price of gold & Treasuries.  Hmmm!!

Dow Jones Industrials








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