Dow shot up 199, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 66. The MLP index added 1+ to the 247s. Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries advanced, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury below 2%. Oil surged 3 to the 56s & gold skyrocketed 37 to 1386.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Oil prices jumped 3% after reports that an Iranian missile shot down a US spy drone over the Strait of Hormuz, raising concern about the possibility of an impending military confrontation between Tehran & DC. The price of crude also rose thanks to a dovish pivot by the Fed yesterday, which boosted US financial markets after policymakers at the central bank signaled they were prepared to cut interest rates no later than 2020. US officials said an Iranian surface-to-air missile shot down a Navy high-altitude drone, which was flying 17 miles from Iran in intl airspace. Iran also tried to shoot down a 2nd missile, but missed, according to US officials. This is the 2nd drone that’s been shot down within one month. A commander for Iran's revolutionary guard said the shooting sends a “clear message to the U.S.” & signals that Iran is “ready for war” -- he noted, however, that Iran has no intention of war with anyone. Oil prices also spiked last week after an attack on 2 oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, a major export route. The US has blamed Iran for the attacks, but Iran denied the allegations. However, OPEC slashed its outlook for oil consumption in 2019, blaming intl trade tensions for hurting demand for crude while also pointing to further challenges ahead. In a monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand will increase by close to 1.14M barrels per day this year -- 70K bpd less than initially expected. In Q1, demand increased by less than 1M barrels a day. Output also fell in May, as a result of US sanctions on Iran.
Oil prices surge after Iranian missile hits US drone
Pres Trump wrote tweeted that Iran made a “very big mistake” after a US drone was shot down in the region, furthering tensions between DC & Tehran. An Iranian surface-to-air missile shot down a U.S. military surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz in an “unprovoked attack,” US officials said, disputing Iranian reports that the aircraft was over its territory. “Iranian reports that the aircraft was over Iran are false,” US Central Command said in a statement. “This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international airspace.” The downing was first announced by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards. The Iranian outlet claimed the Revolutionary Guards had shot down a US “spy drone” over the southern province of Hormozgan. “The downing of the American drone was a clear message to America. ... Our borders are Iran’s red line and we will react strongly against any aggression,” Major Gen Hossein Salami, the recently appointed chief of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said. “Iran is not seeking war with any country, but we are fully prepared to defend Iran.” The latest revelation comes amid rising tensions between DC & Tehran since the Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the 2005 Iran nuclear agreement. The US has accused Iran of recent attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf region.
Trump says 'Iran made a very big mistake!' by shooting down US drone
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing gauge tumbled this month, bolstering the Fed's case for easier monetary policy. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index fell to 0.3 in Jun from 16.6 in May. That was the index's lowest read since Feb, when it hit zero. The data also came in well below the estimate for 9.3. Lower prices contributed to the sharp drop. Its current prices received index, which reflects manufacturers' own prices, plunged by 17 points to 0.6, its lowest level since Oct 2016. Manufacturers “suggest weaker regional manufacturing conditions compared with last month,” regional central bank said, noting that new orders, shipments & employment also fell this month. The Philadelphia Fed's data comes after the central bank opened the door to easier monetary policy in the near future. This led investors to price in a 100% probability of lower interest rates in Jul. Investors have been clamoring for the Fed to lower rates as weaker data & persisting trade tensions dampen the global economic outlook.
Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing gauge tumbles in June, buoying the case for lower rates
Stock buyers are busy today, taking the Dow near its record high. Meanwhile tensions with Iran are rising. Intl events & the meeting between Trump & Xi next week will be getting more attention which may dim enthusiasm by the bulls. Demand for Treasuries & gold is high, not good for stocks.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 55.98 | +2.22 | +4.1% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,385.20 | +36.40 | +2.7% |
Global stocks are rising & the S&P 500 set a new intra-day high at the open, as the US joined a number of central banks in signaling a new round of monetary stimulus could be on the way. The
Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday, but its
policy statement signaled that a cut in interest rates might come as
soon as Jul, The S&P 500 is firmly on track for a new high. The benchmark index
needs to close up more than 19 points for a record finish. A gain of
28 would be a new intraday all-time high. Oil rices jumped by 3% after
reports that an Iranian missile shot down a US spy drone over the
Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about the possibility of an impending
military confrontation between Tehran & the US. The price of crude also rose thanks to a dovish pivot by the Fed. Top
Chinese & US. officials will resume trade talks in accordance with
the wishes of their leaders, but China hopes the US will
create the necessary conditions for dialog, the Chinese commerce
ministry said. In Asian markets, China's Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.2% & Japan's Nikkei jumped 0.6%. In Europe, London's FTSE added 0.7%, Germany's DAX was up 0.9% & France's CAC was higher by 0.8%.
S&P 500 hits new intraday high in Fed-fueled rally
Oil prices jumped 3% after reports that an Iranian missile shot down a US spy drone over the Strait of Hormuz, raising concern about the possibility of an impending military confrontation between Tehran & DC. The price of crude also rose thanks to a dovish pivot by the Fed yesterday, which boosted US financial markets after policymakers at the central bank signaled they were prepared to cut interest rates no later than 2020. US officials said an Iranian surface-to-air missile shot down a Navy high-altitude drone, which was flying 17 miles from Iran in intl airspace. Iran also tried to shoot down a 2nd missile, but missed, according to US officials. This is the 2nd drone that’s been shot down within one month. A commander for Iran's revolutionary guard said the shooting sends a “clear message to the U.S.” & signals that Iran is “ready for war” -- he noted, however, that Iran has no intention of war with anyone. Oil prices also spiked last week after an attack on 2 oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, a major export route. The US has blamed Iran for the attacks, but Iran denied the allegations. However, OPEC slashed its outlook for oil consumption in 2019, blaming intl trade tensions for hurting demand for crude while also pointing to further challenges ahead. In a monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand will increase by close to 1.14M barrels per day this year -- 70K bpd less than initially expected. In Q1, demand increased by less than 1M barrels a day. Output also fell in May, as a result of US sanctions on Iran.
Oil prices surge after Iranian missile hits US drone
A new study found the majority of contractors in the US have a positive outlook for the year ahead -- & that could translate to overall economic growth. More
than ½ of contractors, 52%, reported they felt "highly
confident" they would have enough new business opportunities in the next
12 months, according to Q2 data from the 2019 USG Corp + US Chamber of Commerce Commercial Construction Index. That percentage is up 11% from the index's 2019 Q1 data. The
index gave an overall composite score of 74 for Q2,
indicating a "healthy market," which was up from a composite score of
72 in Q1. Other key factors for contractor optimism include backlog ratio, a comparison of contractors' current jobs to the work they would like
to take on, & their expectation to hire more people in the next 6
months. Q2 data found that they expect
revenue to remain level & 85% of contractors have "high
concern" over the cost of skilled labor. “The
second quarter findings suggest that the construction industry remains
strong, optimistic, and focused on the future,” said Neil Bradley, the
exec VP & chief policy officer of the Chamber of
Commerce said. “To sustain this momentum, we need durable,
bipartisan policy solutions from Washington that promote trade, improve
our immigration system, and better prepare America’s workforce for 21st
century jobs.”
Construction data shows US contractors 'highly confident' in 12 month market outlook
Pres Trump wrote tweeted that Iran made a “very big mistake” after a US drone was shot down in the region, furthering tensions between DC & Tehran. An Iranian surface-to-air missile shot down a U.S. military surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz in an “unprovoked attack,” US officials said, disputing Iranian reports that the aircraft was over its territory. “Iranian reports that the aircraft was over Iran are false,” US Central Command said in a statement. “This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international airspace.” The downing was first announced by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards. The Iranian outlet claimed the Revolutionary Guards had shot down a US “spy drone” over the southern province of Hormozgan. “The downing of the American drone was a clear message to America. ... Our borders are Iran’s red line and we will react strongly against any aggression,” Major Gen Hossein Salami, the recently appointed chief of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said. “Iran is not seeking war with any country, but we are fully prepared to defend Iran.” The latest revelation comes amid rising tensions between DC & Tehran since the Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the 2005 Iran nuclear agreement. The US has accused Iran of recent attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf region.
Trump says 'Iran made a very big mistake!' by shooting down US drone
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing gauge tumbled this month, bolstering the Fed's case for easier monetary policy. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index fell to 0.3 in Jun from 16.6 in May. That was the index's lowest read since Feb, when it hit zero. The data also came in well below the estimate for 9.3. Lower prices contributed to the sharp drop. Its current prices received index, which reflects manufacturers' own prices, plunged by 17 points to 0.6, its lowest level since Oct 2016. Manufacturers “suggest weaker regional manufacturing conditions compared with last month,” regional central bank said, noting that new orders, shipments & employment also fell this month. The Philadelphia Fed's data comes after the central bank opened the door to easier monetary policy in the near future. This led investors to price in a 100% probability of lower interest rates in Jul. Investors have been clamoring for the Fed to lower rates as weaker data & persisting trade tensions dampen the global economic outlook.
Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing gauge tumbles in June, buoying the case for lower rates
Stock buyers are busy today, taking the Dow near its record high. Meanwhile tensions with Iran are rising. Intl events & the meeting between Trump & Xi next week will be getting more attention which may dim enthusiasm by the bulls. Demand for Treasuries & gold is high, not good for stocks.
Dow Jones Industrials
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