Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Markets rally after Trump says he will meet with Xi at G-20

Dow soared 346, advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ jumped up 146.  The MLP index was fractionally higher to the 246s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries continued their rally.  Oil jumped up 1+ to the 53s & gold added 1 to 1344.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil53.22
 +1.29+2.5%

GC=FGold1   ,345.90
 +3.00+0.2%






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Stocks opened higher as the Federal Reserve begins its 2-day policy meeting.  A decision on interest rates is expected tomorrow, followed by a press conference with chairman Jerome Powell.  Currently traders are not expecting any change at the meeting, however there is a growing bias growing for a potential rate cut in Jul.  ECB Pres Mario Draghi's comments indicating a possibility of new rate cuts or asset purchases in Europe lifted expectations of potential action ahead from the Fed.  In European markets, London's FTSE is up 1%, Germany's DAX added 1.7% & France's CAC rose 1.7%.  Trade will be front & center on Capitol Hill.  Senators want to know the latest on trade concerning, Mexico, Canada, China & Japan.  Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, testifies before a Senate panel on the status of the US-Mexico-Canada agreement.  Asian markets finished trading mixed.  China's Shanghai Composite Index inched higher.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng index went up 1% &Japan's Nikkei ended 0.7% lower.

Stocks open higher as Fed meeting begins

US homebuilding unexpectedly fell in May, but data for the prior 2 months was revised higher & building permits increased, suggesting that the housing market was drawing some support from a sharp decline in mortgage rates.  Housing starts dropped 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.269M units last month amid a drop in the construction of single-family housing units, the Commerce Dept said.  Data for Apr was revised up to show homebuilding rising to a pace of 1.281M units, instead of increasing to a rate of 1.235M units as previously reported.  Housing starts in Mar were also stronger than initially estimated.  The forecast called for housing starts edging up to a pace of 1.239M units in May.  Single-family housing starts fell in the Northeast, the Midwest & West, but rose in the South, where the bulk of homebuilding occurs.  Building permits rose 0.3% to a rate of 1.294M units in May, the 2nd straight monthly increase in permits.  Building permits have been weak this year, with much of the decline concentrated in the single-family housing segment.  The housing market hit a soft patch last year & has been a drag on economic growth for 5 straight qtrs.  The sector is being constrained by land & labor shortages, which are making it difficult for builders to fully take advantage of lower borrowing costs.  As a result, the housing market continues to struggle with tight inventory, leading to sluggish sales growth.

US housing starts fall, but prior months revised up

Pres Trump said that he and Chinese Pres Xi Jinping “will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan.”  In a tweet, Trump said that he & Xi “had a very good telephone conversation,” & that “our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting.”  Chinese state media reported shortly following the announcement that Xi had agreed to meet with Trump at the summit, scheduled for Jun 28-29 in Osaka.  Xi said he hoped that the US treats Chinese companies fairly, according to Chinese media — a possible reference to Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant that faces a ban because of what the US calls national security issues.  China had kept mum about whether Xi would agree to a face-to-face meeting with the US pres at the summit while the 2 economic superpowers remain locked in a heated trade dispute.  Trump has said he expected that meeting to occur at the high-profile summit, but had recently downplayed the impact that it could have on forging a trade deal with Beijing.  Trump said last week that “it doesn’t matter ” if Xi attends the G-20 or not.  “If he shows up, good, if he doesn’t — in the meantime, we’re taking in billions of dollars a month [in tariffs] from China,” Trump said.

Trump says he and China’s Xi spoke, will have ‘extended meeting next week’ at G-20

Pres Trump ripped the ECB for pushing down the value of the €, hours after its pres Mario Draghi hinted at the possibility of additional fiscal stimulus in Europe.  “Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA,” Trump tweeted.  “They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others.”  Earlier, Draghi said the ECB was ready to cut interest rates, if the economy needed it. Draghi said during a speech that “further cuts in policy rates...remain part of our tools.”  "In the absence of improvement, such that the sustained return of inflation to our aim is threatened, additional stimulus will be required,” he added.  Trump's & Draghi's comments come at the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting.  Policymakers at the US central bank are widely expected to keep the benchmark federal funds rates steady, while paving the way for a cut in Jul.  Trump has frequently criticized the Fed for hurting economic growth in the US.  As recently as Fri, he claimed that the stock market would be “10,000 points higher” if policymakers had not raised interest rates 4 times in 2018.  Most recently, Powell suggested the Fed was prepared to respond to economic impacts from muted inflation & the US-China trade war.  “We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved. We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective,” he said at the beginning of Jun.

Trump hits ECB president for 'unfairly' competing against the US


Trump is set for an "extended" meeting with Xi & that brought out buyers in droves.  Presently, the Dow is about 26½K, close to its recent record.  But nothing has changed & a lot of work remains on a final agreement between the US & China.  As I have pointed out recently, negative thinkers continue to buy gold & Tresuires.

Dow Jones Industrials








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