Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Markets pause, awaiting Fed announcement

Dow rose 42, advancers slightly ahead of decliners & NAZ slid back 6.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to the 245s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were weak.  Oil crawled higher to the 64s (more below) & gold lost to 1247.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil53.55
-0.35-0.7%

GC=FGold   1,346.90
-3.80-0.3%







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Stocks traded cautiously higher, ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting.  The FOMC is widely expected to leave the central bank's overnight lending rate unchanged.   Traders are betting policymakers will lay the groundwork for a rate cut in Jul, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.  The Federal Funds rate is currently is 2.25-2.50%.  Chairman Powell will hold a press conference following the decision & will likely address reports that the White House explored “demoting” him, the story was downplayed by Trump's top economic advisor Larry Kudlow.  In addition to the policy statement central bankers will release their summary of economic projections.  Pres Trump helped give equities an extra boost yesterday, confirming he will meet with Chinese Pres Xi at the G-20 meeting in Japan.  Investors viewed the development as a positive sign for progress on trade talks.  Today, China's Shanghai Composite Index gained 1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng  rose 2.6% & Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.7%.  In European markets, London's FTSE slipped 0.3%, Germany's DAX was flat & France's CAC also inched higher.

US stocks trade higher ahead of Fed decision

China is “rolling out the red carpet for the rest of the world” by lowering tariffs with other countries — even as its trade war with the US continues to drag on, according to Peterson Institute for Intl Economics.  In a little known fact, Beijing has over the past year lowered duties on goods from countries that compete with America, the think tank said in a recent report.
The research showed that:
  • China's average tariff rate on US goods jumped from 8% at the start of 2018 to 20.7% this month.
  • China's average tariff rate on its imports from all other countries fell from 8% at the start of 2018 to 6.7% last Nov & has stayed at that level since then.
China's move to lower tariffs on countries other than the US has received little public attention, with much media coverage focusing on what Beijing & DC say & do to each other.  By lowering duties with other trading partners, Beijing has put American firms at a “considerable” disadvantage at a time when Pres Trump has repeatedly used tariffs as a way to negotiate with other countries, PIIE said.  “China has begun rolling out the red carpet for the rest of the world. Everyone else is enjoying much improved access to China’s 1.4 billion consumers,” the think tank said last week.  “Trump’s provocations and China’s two-pronged response mean American companies and workers now are at a considerable cost disadvantage relative to both Chinese firms and firms in third countries,” said researchers.  The report added that another important implication of China’s action is that “Americans are likely suffering more than Pres Trump thinks, ”as a result of the trade war.  Inflicting such punishment on Americans may be one factor motivating China,” it said.  The tariff fight started more than a year ago & recently expanded beyond trade into areas such as technology & national security.  Tensions between the top 2 economies in the world have rattled investors & threatened to derail economic activity globally.

China rolls out the red carpet for other countries as it ups tariffs on US goods

Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that he will be speaking with a Chinese official before Pres Trump meets with Chinese Pres Xi Jinping at the upcoming G-20 summit.  But it's still unclear when the currently stalled trade negotiations between the 2 economic superpowers will restart, Lighthizer added.  “I have a conversation set up with my counterpart on the telephone in the next day and a half, and then I expect to meet with him with [Treasury Secretary Steven] Mnuchin in Osaka before the president meets” with Xi, Lighthizer testified before the House Ways & Means Committee.  Trump announced that he would have an “extended meeting” with Xi at the summit, which is scheduled for Jun 28-29 in Japan.  Xi confirmed the plans to Chinese state media soon after.  Talks between the US & China on a new trade agreement ground to halt in May amid disagreements between negotiators — including Lighthizer’s counterpart, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.  The US alleges China reneged on its prior commitments made over the course of the discussions.  “When actual negotiations begin again, I can’t say at this point,” Lighthizer told the committee.  “We’re talking, we’re going to meet, and, you know, we have the same objective that you and the other members have. And that is that if we can resolve these issues in a way that improves this relationship, preserves the competitive advantage of the United States, we have an obligation to do that, and hopefully we’ll get to that point,” he said.  When asked if the US would be ready to engage with China if they returned to the negotiating table, Lighthizer said, “absolutely, we are ready to engage.”

USTR Robert Lighthizer says he will meet with Chinese counterpart ahead of Trump…

The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude supplies fell 3.1M barrels last week.  That followed 2 consecutive weeks of gains. The forecast called for a decline of 2M barrels in crude stocks.  The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported an 812K-barrel fall.  The EIA data also showed that gasoline inventories were down 1.7M barrels, while distillate stockpiles edged lower by 600K barrels last week.  The S&P Global Platts survey had shown expectations for supply increases of 1M barrels each for gasoline & distillates.   Jul West Texas Intermediate crude was up 36¢ (0.7%) to $54.26 a barrel.

Oil prices turn higher as EIA reports first U.S. crude supply decline in 3 weeks


Traders are twiddling their thumbs to keep busy.  Trump & Xi will meet next week & Lighthizer will also be busy.  But the Fed announcement, coming shortly, is getting the bulk of attention today.  The major excitement should be that a rate cut will be taken up seriously at the Jul meeting.

Dow Jones Industrials








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