Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Markets rise after optimistic comments by Mnuchin on a trade deal

Dow gained 62, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ climbed 60.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 247s & REITs dropped 7 to the 379s.. Junk bond funds went up in price & Treasuries were sold today.  Oil shot up 2 to the high 59s while gold pulled back 6 to 1411 after recent strength).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil59.34
+1.51+2.6%

GC=FGold   1,410.30
 -8.40 -0.6%







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Stocks rose  following comments on trade by Treasury Secretary Steve Munchin that investors read as being optimistic about a deal with China.  Mnuchin said that a US-China trade deal was nearly 90% done before talks collapsed, but he remains hopeful talks will get back on track.  Pres Trump & Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Japan during the G-20 summit amid ongoing tensions.  Today Trump said he would do additional tariffs if we don't make a deal & added that his Plan B for China is to take in Bs & Bs in tariffs.  In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng inched higher & Japan's Nikkei lost 0.5%.  In Europe, London's FTSE was slightly higher, Germany's DAX added 0.4% & France's CAC inched higher.

US stocks rise on trade optimism

Pres Trump vowed to impose additional tariffs on China if a trade deal is not reached.  “When tariffs go on in China we are taking in billions and billions of dollars — we never took in 10 cents — now you have another $325 billion that I haven’t taxed yet — it’s ripe for taxing — for putting tariffs on,” he said.  Trump is expected to meet with Chinese Pres Xi Jinping on Sat to discuss trade between the world's 2 largest economies.  The result could have implications for the markets & the global economy. “This never happened to China. Now what is happening is people are moving out of China. Companies are moving out of China, by the way, some are coming back to the United States because they don’t want to pay the tariff, etc., etc. But it’s been an incredible thing. Am I happy now? Absolutely. Now I would do additional tariffs by very substantial additional tariffs if that doesn’t work if we don’t make a deal,” he explained.  Although it’s “possible” to reach a good deal, Trump said his “plan B” may include a 10 percent tariff on the remaining "$600 billion" worth of goods.  "So we have much more than $300 billion worth of products," he said.  "Now what’s going to happen ... all of those companies will move out of China – most of them—and they’ll move to other places like Vietnam and other places that take advantage of us, and we’ll start working on that too ... I don't want to do too many at one time.”

Trump on China trade talks: I will impose ‘very substantial’ additional tariffs if no deal is reached


Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the US & China were close to a trade deal, & he's optimistic that progress can be made during weekend talks between Pres Trump & China's Xi Jinping.  "We were about 90% of the way there [with a deal] and I think there's a path to complete this," he said.  He added that he's confident Trump & the Chinese pres can make progress in stalled trade talks at the Group of 20 meeting.  "The message we want to hear is that they want to come back to the table and continue because I think there is a good outcome for their economy and the U.S. economy to get balanced trade & to continue to build on this relationship."  He did not provide any detail on what the final 10% of an agreement might entail, or what the sticking points are to completing a deal.  Trump is meeting his Chinese counterpart on Sat at the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan. The outcome of the meeting could be pivotal for the global economy and financial markets, which has been rattled by 18 months of trade tensions between the economic giants & an escalation of tariffs on each other's imports.  Officials have yet to negotiate a breakthrough, but there are hopes that a meeting between the two presidents could help the discussions.  "I'm hopeful that we can move forward with a plan," Mnuchin said.   "President Trump and President Xi have a very close working relationship. We had a productive meeting at the last G-20."  At their meeting in Dec at the G-20, Trump & Xi reached a truce in the trade war, but talks in May broke down, & the countries added additional tariffs.  Mnuchin said he was hopeful a deal could be struck by the end of the year but said "there needs to be the right efforts in place."  Dow futures jumped after Mnuchin's comments.

Mnuchin: ‘We were about 90% of the way’ on China trade deal and there’s a ‘path to complete this’

Gold futures retreated from the nearly 6-year high scored a day earlier, pressured by a less-dovish-than-hoped Federal Reserve & expected progress on US-China trade talks.  Aug gold traded at $1410 an ounce, down $8.40 (0.6%).  The metal settled at $1418 yesterday, the highest finish for a most-active contract since Aug, 2013. Yesterday, the contract touched its highest intraday climb since May 2013 at $1442 before pulling back.  Gold had started its retreat after Powell said yesterday that uncertainty about intl trade policy & worries about global economic growth might be starting to show thru to economic data, though Fed officials don't know how long that may last or how severe the drag might be.

Gold pulls back from nearly 6-year high after less dovish comments from the Fed


Mnuchiin's optimism about a US-China trade deal brought out buyers.  However they are cautious after all the delays.  The Dow remains about 1% under its record high & will need good news on the trade front to reach a new record.

Dow Jones Industrials








 

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