Thursday, June 13, 2019

Markets rebound led as energy stocks

Dow gained 101, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ added 44.  The MLP index went up 2+ to the 249s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were purchased, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 2.09%.  Oil shot up to the 52s & gold advanced 7 to 1344 (more on both below).

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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for attacks earlier in the day on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman near Iran & the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route thru which much of the world's oil passes.  “Iran is lashing out because the regime wants our successful maximum pressure campaign lifted,” Pompeo said without citing specific evidence as to why Tehran was responsible.  “No economic sanctions entitle the Islamic Republic to attack innocent civilians, disrupt global oil markets and engage in nuclear blackmail.”  “The international community condemns Iran’s assault on the freedom of navigation and the targeting of innocent civilians,” he said, adding that the US will defend its forces, interests & partners.  Oil prices rose as much as 4% on renewed fears of conflict in the Middle East after a series of strikes last month.  The White House said Pres Trump was briefed on the matter and blamed Tehran of being behind a similar attack on May 12 on 4 tankers in the same area.  Trump tweeted yesterday that “it is too soon to even think about making a deal” with Iran, saying that “they are not ready, & neither are we!”  Meanwhile, the Pentagon said that the US Navy's Fifth Fleet received 2 separate distress calls from the oil tankers shortly after the attacks.  “USS Bainbridge was operating in the vicinity and provided immediate assistance to the M/V Kokuka Courageous. Twenty-one mariners from the M/V Kokuka Courageous, who abandoned ship, are currently aboard USS Bainbridge. A Navy P-8 is also providing support,” wrote Lt Col Earl Brown, spokesman for US Central Command.  Last month, the Pentagon announced it was sending additional US troops, drones & fighter jets to the Middle East amid increasing tensions between the DC & Tehran.  Defense officials at the Pentagon said they had credible intelligence that Iran & its proxies are planning to attack American forces in Iraq.  “The deployment will include approximately 1500 US military personnel & consist of a Patriot battalion to defend against missile threats, additional intelligence, surveillance, & reconnaissance aircraft, an engineer element to provide force protection improvements throughout the region & a fighter aircraft squadron to provide additional deterrence & depth to our aviation response options,” acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan said.  The movement of additional US forces to the region is the Trump administration’s latest effort to pressure Tehran over its support for weapons proliferation & extremist groups in the Middle East.

Trump administration blames Iran for oil tanker attacks in Middle East

The number of people who applied for jobless benefits in early Jun edged up to a 5-week high, but not enough to signal any deterioration in a robust labor market that’s fueling the longest economic expansion in US history.  Initial jobless claimed rose by 3K to 222K last week, the gov said.  The forecast was for new claims to total a seasonally adjusted 218K.  The more stable monthly average of new claims climbed 2K to 217K.  The 4-week average gives a more accurate read into labor-market conditions than the more volatile weekly number.  The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, increased by 2K to 1.69M.  These claims remain close to a 46-year bottom.  The number losing their jobs is still clinging near a ½ century low, however, even though the economy has slowed & hiring has tapered off.  The US added just 75K new jobs in May.  With the unemployment rate sitting at a remarkably low 3.6%, companies have a hard enough time finding skilled workers, never mind considering a reduction in head count of experienced employees.  The labor market has cooled off in the past several months, hurt by ongoing trade fights & by less hiring in key portions of the economy such as retail, construction & manufacturing.  Yet by almost any measure, the labor market is still the strongest in decades & the bedrock of an economic expansion that turns 10 years old this month.

Jobless claims edge up to 5-week high of 222,000 as California, Pennsylvania layoffs rise

Oil futures rallied, as an attack on 2 oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of a potential disruption to the global flow of oil, but failed to recoup the previous days losses by the close.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jul delivery rose $1.14 (2.2%) to end at $52.28 a barrel after tapping an intraday high of $53.45.  The gains contrasted with a 4% drop that took the US benchmark down to $51.14, the lowest front-month contract finish since Jan 14.  Aug Brent crude climbed $1.34 (2.2%) to $61.3, following a session high so far of $62.64 a barrel, reached earlier when reports of the tanker attacks surfaced.   The previous session saw Brent tumble 3.7% to $59.97 a barrel, the lowest front-month finish since Jan 28.  Yesterday's fall came after a report showing US crude inventories climbed for a 2nd week in a row.  Simmering worries about energy demand on the back of growing US-China trade tensions also pressured the commodity.

Oil rallies after apparent attack on tankers near Strait of Hormuz, but finises off session high


Gold prices advanced for a 3rd straight session gain, as demand for the metal rose on expectations for an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this summer.  Nagging trade tensions between the world's top 2 economies & intensifying Middle East unease also lured investors into the haven asset.  Stocks climbed as gold futures settled after back-to-back losses & oil prices surged after 2 oil tankers were reportedly attacked in the Gulf of Oman, leaving one with a damaged hull & the other on fire and adrift.  Against this backdrop, gold for Aug delivery rose $6.90 (0.5%) to settle at $1343 an ounce.  Futures prices, which have now tallied their 11th gain out of 12 sessions, are up more than 2% month to date.  Save for the Mon retreat, which was strong enough to leave the metal slightly lower on the week, gold has gained almost uninterruptedly for 2 weeks.  The metal is inversely following a lower $.  The soft buck can be a tailwind for commodities priced in the unit as it makes them less expensive to users of other currencies, & vice versa.  Gold has benefited from a sharp slide in Treasury yields as investors increasingly bet the Fed will move later this year to cut interest rates, a prediction they believe was supported by a soft inflation reading yesterday.  Lower yields can be a positive for gold, reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.  Analysts also continued to point to developments around US-China tensions as a driver for global markets.  Risk-on investors might have found some relief in remarks by Pres Trump late yesterday when he told reporters that he doesn't have a deadline for imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

Gold extends advance to third straight session on Fed rate-cut view, geopolitical ripples


Stocks rose today although excitement in the Mideast provided plenty of drama.  But that situation may have quieted for awhile.  Meanwhile trade talks are lumbering along & economic data is so-so.  The bulls would like to take the Dow up to 27K.  There was a little buying in the last ½ hour, but it will take more than those optimistic hopes for the Dow to reach a new record.

Dow Jones Industrials









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